I would agree with the ABC pattern. The "B" Wave has obviously peaked. A simple 50% correction in the most recent run-up gives me a short-term target of 140.28 on the SPY or 1401.50 SPX. ( a 38.2% retracement targets 1410.33 SPX ) 10 day MA on SPX = 1418.06 21 day MA on SPX = 1405.51
I love elliott wave discussions. Nobody seems to know what wave we are in until it is finished and then it becomes so perfectly clear. I don't deny that there is "something" to elliott wave theory, but even the masters are not masters and get it wrong quite often. I have to admit I use fibs in my trading which actually is the foundation of elliott wave theory. When it works it's truly a thing of beauty, when it doesn't it gets awfully ugly.
luckily the fibs have been working quite well so far... 78.7% stopped the S&P, 61% stopped Nas and Dow. Dow held at 38% and if it closes below that expect to see it drop to at least the 23% S&P has paused right above the 50% but more than likely will see at least the 38% Nas has paused right above 38% but more than likely will see at least the 23% I wouldnt be surprised to see an early sell off and then bounce into a rally from the fibs. Though my crystal ball says the rally will be a fake out and then we'll go back down Friday. Just so you all dont think Im a 'total' idiot.. I only make predictions for fun... I trade what the chart tells me to trade. I dont care which way we go as long as we dont churn. Peace
I don't think there is any question that we are beginning a c-wave down that will take us to a minimum of 1345. If it turns out to be an impulse wave down we will hit 1285.
Look for a 3 day rally of roughly 31-32 SPX points off of yesterday's "pullback" lows at 1414.05 that takes the S&P back up to the 1444-1445 area before the B wave peaks.
I posted in wrong thread, I suppose my reply should have been posted here. --------------------------------------------- "Look for a 31-32 point rally in the SPX off of yesterday's lows at 1414.05 over the next 3 days that targets the 1445 area that finishes off this "B" wave retracement before heading back down." I pretty much agree with most here that the next leg down has begun. I gave up on elliot some time ago, however, that's a nice interpretation. One thing I'm wondering: is it possible for the abc count on the last corrective wave to have already reached B? That first little spike near the red average line could already contain abc. Although it seems tight, the interpretation is similar to the cab count you have right under the larger B after the beginning of July. Hard to see this last squeeze punching up higher into the alternate (your) AB region considering the magnitude of the prior selloff (although I wouldn't absolutely doubt it considering PPT like squeezes and short interest). The other thing that most people seem to be missing on the targets here (IMHO) is the potential diagonal support line coming up from the 03 and jul 06 bottoms. This puts the C target min more in the range of ~1350-1385, depending on how long the down leg takes to unfold. Not sure how that violates fib target, but I also see different interpretations of the fib bottom here