Mup: those swings in wave 3 are just chop, because they overlap. And they are less pts than w2, so they are irrelevant re. EW. But they where buying opportunities Read Bryce Gilmore...he explains the 1:1 methodology. Or symmetry by Carolyn Boroden.
If your into the Measured move stuff then you'll see the Bear Alt count as an A-B-C of a larger cycle wave B
Mup re. 1:1 method: Your wave 1 would not be appropriate because it was less pts than the previous wave. Just in chop. You have to overbalance the greater of the previous 2 retracements, and that happens about half way up my wave 1.
If your using that degree change method of overbalancing. Then you need to use the move of the 10/02 & the move into the march 03 low as your bench mark. Marking the whole structure off that w2 as a 9 wave extended W3.
Mup, you don't necessarily have to use the biggest fib ratio to come up with your Wave C target. A simple "measured-move" where Wave C = Wave A ( which was roughly 97 points ) would give you a target of the 1342 area, IF you believe that Wave B already peaked at last Friday's high just below 1439. See below for my chart with the appropriate Elliott Wave interpretation. Nonetheless, an interesting discussion for a change in the "Trading Forum". Very thought provoking. And it sure beats all of those absurd "play-by-play" posts by the ET "serial" ( his name shall remain undisclosed ) poster who posted 40 times yesterday! Baron should give "him" the day off.
So refreshing to get an intelligent discussion of EW on ET. Regarding your chart, Landis82, it seems that if the start of this correction was an A wave consisting of 3 waves (a,b,c) then this would be the start of a "flat" correction. Flat corrections, according to the book, have a B wave approximately equal to the A wave and then a C wave going down just beyond the end of the A wave but not further. So the target for wave C would be near the end of wave A. This would also imply that we have more upside to the market after wave C. One thing I have learned in following Elliott theory is that one should always expect to be wrong, in some way or fashion. What you think you are seeing may, in fact, be a different wave configuration that you have not considered. And thus accordingly, I must admit that I have probably been wrong more often than right regarding future waves. Now regarding the big picture, some of the professional EW theorists see the big uptrend starting in March 2003 as being a massive B wave consisting of a series of multiple zig-zags. This comes after the massive A wave down starting in 2000. If this is correct then we are headed for an even more massive C wave down. Looking at the chart (below), (sorry no labels), it rather seems that we are near the terminus of this giant B wave. I have thought this many times in the past and have been wrong, so I am sort of expecting this downturn but am wary of this prediction just the same.
From what I understand regarding EW you have smaller formations within larger ones. So I guess we could look at the wave down in 2000 as a massive A Wave...though I dont think we'll be able to call that until we are pretty far into it. We've had plenty of corrections in the past couple years that couple have been mistaken for the begining of the massive C wave. This could be it..also might not be. What can say a little more confidentally is that begning on the 2/27 correction we are having a textbook ABC... might fail but past few days sure are making it look like we are about to start C wave down again. Im pretty rusty on my EW theory so if Ive screwed up here please correct me
From what I understand regarding EW you have smaller formations within larger ones. So I guess we could look at the wave down in 2000 as a massive A Wave...though I dont think we'll be able to call that until we are pretty far into it. We've had plenty of corrections in the past couple years that couple have been mistaken for the begining of the massive C wave. This could be it..also might not be. What can say a little more confidentally is that begning on the 2/27 correction we are having a textbook ABC... might fail but past few days sure are making it look like we are about to start C wave down again. Im pretty rusty on my EW theory so if Ive screwed up here please correct me What we are having since 2/27 is either an ABC correction or a wave 1 down followed by a wave 2 up and then starting a wave three down, which may itself have a series of 1's and 2's to start.