The Elliott Wave haunts me tonight

Discussion in 'Trading' started by michaelscott, Mar 26, 2007.

  1. I was just looking at a chart of the S&P 500 and the Elliott Wave jumped out at me. When we hit 1461 and began the downward correction to 1363, my thinking is that is the A wave. Then the trip up is the B wave. The C wave by theory should then be (1461-1363)X1.618= 158 1438-158= 1280 target price.

    Am I simply paranoid that our next wave will be C with a target price on the S&P500 of 1280? I did a quick fib retracement that demonstrates this would be fundamentally correct.

    Tell me your thoughts.
  2. ive been thinking the 1350 area..though not because of EW but because of trendlines/fibs and support.

    Look at the 06, 05 and 04 corrections and they all have a second leg down...its rare a correction doesnt do it.
  3. Here's what I've got although I'm not in the Elliott camp.

    The S&P below, shows the top in 2004 compared with today. The bullish case would find us at the last tiny low just before the ‘box’ on the left starting in December 2003. That would take the market to 1510-1521. If
    important to note, however, that big break patterns like this rarely ever regain the highs but just hang up there
    until the shorts cover and then the market goes right back to the lows and lower. Make sure the market is above
    1450 before you assume its going to 1510.
  4. Whoops. I made a mistake.

    I looked through my data again. I missed one of the bumps on the chart. I now believe that the summer of 2006 was A, B and C. Im thinking now that the leg up on the S&P500 in the fall is Wave 1. Wave 2 is what we just experienced.

    My reasoning behind it is this. The market corrected in May 2006 from 1326 to right around 1270 (Wave A), then corrected upwards to 1290 (Wave B), and then to 1219 (Wave C).

    1326-1270= 56
    56X1.618= about 90

    1290-90= 1200

    So May 2006 seems to fit the A, B, C pattern.

    So looking the present correction, it fits Wave 2 theory to a T. It never made it past 61.8% on the Fibonacci chart. Prices did fall in a three wave pattern. Now the next leg up should be the most powerful wave.

    So was I originally correct in thinking we might be in ABC or are we in 1-2-3?

    Im leaning towards 1-2-3 and Wave 3 should be the most powerful wave. If so Wave 3 is calculated like so.

    S&P500= (1461-1224)X1.618= 383+1438= 1821 Price target
  5. percentage wise the tumble we took would be more comparable to the bigger fall from 2004 which then had a nice rally ALMOST to the previous high but then went on to a new low instead.

    I would think thats more likely.
  6. I think you were closer the first time
  7. Certainly not out of the question at this stage.

    I was transposing the 2004 onto current charts last month, however, I disregarded that last week.
  8. I dont quite have all the fancy charting software. I still use I wonder if anyone has constructed a master chart demonstrating all the cycles and subcycles.
  9. hman


    A third wave down is about to begin.
  10. I wish I had better charting software so I could say which way more matter of factly.
    #10     Mar 27, 2007