Well you can verify that for yourself pretty easily. CME and Comex together are doing about 1% - 2% of the entire BTC volume. As a comparison, it would be like saying the purchase of 15.000 AAPL puts caused the stock to crash from 230 to 170$. Does that sound reasonable for you? If so, perhaps the article can be reasonable for you as well. I don't know about you, but I've never seen a market driven by fundamentals. When I trade I see buying and selling, that's what drives markets. If news are horrible and somebody is willing to buy, the market is not going to fall. The reason why beginners don't understand the CME top is because they don't understand the role of the short seller in a crashing market. Who else do you think is buying in a crash, when everything goes down the drain? A courageous investor willing to stop the avalanche by catching a falling knife? Before CME there was the CBOE disaster: Nobody was able to quote a market on CBOE because nobody could really trade and clear a cash and carry trade CBOE vs Gemini (the exchange by the Wrinklehoe Bros that provided the index the CBOE futures were priced off of). So everyone was waiting for the CME futures to take of. "The institutional buyers are coming" "When CME opens the gates, the whales will drive it to the moon" that was the tenor on reddit, bitcoin.org, twitter and the Bitmex trollbox. And everybody bought in anticipation of that event....just to realize, that nobody wanted to trade CME futures either and there was no institutional investors waiting in line to buy. So everybody had already bought and what did they do after they've seen that CME was also a squib load? Right...they put a lot of selling orders in, and since there was no buyer anymore, the entire market crashed. The End
We're gonna be so rich bud. All those suckers holding dollars, bhahaha. They'll wish they had the foresight to get in on the noodles. The noodles are the future! -- (every Bitcoin genius a year ago).
Well, if arb exists there shouldn't be a huge difference between them. So if a HF decides to short the shit out of the futures, BTC should go down.