Don't expect any post-election miracles. Credit markets are still stuck (credit card companies can't sell bonds, period - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aajOmDkW3xeE&refer=home ), U.S. luxury retailers will face grimmest Christmas shopping season in many, many years (proving that the consumer recession is now 'full on,' at every level - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8.hb3VjdnTc&refer=home ), not only manufacturing activity but now service sector activity is incredibly weak ( http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aem3jfKbrFrk&refer=home ), and we'll see accelerating job losses in the U.S. (look for a nasty job report coming soon to a screen near you). I won't mention any correlation of this incredibly nasty economic data to equity markets, as certain delusional 'traders' (on the LONG side) want to pretend that any such correlation is either non-existent or negligible (a view I hardly share), and I don't care to get into an immature pissing match with such people.
We have a generation of longs and perma-bulls to shake free. Twenty-five year credit and debt bubble that came crashing to the ground within the past year. Since there is always someone to squeeze, we can and will have any number of 10% rips higher. But at the end of the day, financial firms going bk, leveraged specs getting blown out and hedge funds effectively freezing redemptions and having no access to leverage makes the foreseeable future one hell of a bleak picture.
You read my mind. That's exactly the response I was expecting from some when I said "I won't mention any correlation of this incredibly nasty economic data to equity markets, as certain delusional 'traders' (on the LONG side) want to pretend that any such correlation is either non-existent or negligible (a view I hardly share), and I don't care to get into an immature pissing match with such people."
If anyone here wants to see what this market is going to look like over the coming time, go look at a chart of the nikkei. Doubt the duration is the same, but probably the best match of anything out there. This market is dead for investors, for traders only now.
well we are likely for a rally the next few months, then perhaps a move lower. if we rally to say 11000-12000 dow i am shorting for a nice risk reward trend follower. cover half at 7500 leave other half running for low low targets! http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/USDJIND1930.gif
I am not saying if things are geting worst and how long. I just remember when oil was $140 and everyone said it was going to 200 or $300 . Now they are saying they new it would drop and it could never go that high. No one can predict the future and the news only says what it see. Next month the market may go up and all the experts will say i told you it was a bottom. The market could never have gone lower. The news is a lagging indicator.
You don't need news, you need to watch the credit markets. Credit markets say we are a long time away from the end of this.