Dump's tariffs have only just started so don't be too optimistic. Even friendly Canada is furious with him and is retaliating. The EU, China etc are also drawing up lists to put tariffs on US goods. The Russians must be overjoyed at his messing up. The US is finished being no 1 economic power. Shouldn't have wasted all those trillions blasting away in the Middle East. Achieved nothing anyway.
+1 .. Spot on! ..... Just waiting for Lebron to come out and endorse TD Ameritrade or Etrade.... we are short to the door on that one, imo.
I concur. However, the trillions spent on wars half way around the globe is a waste (in fact a crime) only from the perspective of the people / taxpayers; it's not a waste from the Establishment's perspective, as massive profits from narcotics operations alone made the spending and deaths of US soldiers worthwhile.
I'll tell you why not. Just like many have said before on this site...DEBT DEBT DEBT! It is common for the U.S. to have recessions or some kind of crisis every five to 10 years (economic cycle or government screw up, you choose)...the debt will exacerbate the "BUST" into something just as bad as 2008 or worse. This bull market is going on 10 years next year...one of our longest. Do you think there's no end to this market melt up? What happens when corporate buybacks dry up or servicing our debt becomes problematic as rates rise? Hypothetical: Can I borrow 100k from you? I promise I will put it somewhere safe...the stock market...that should put you at ease for getting paid back, right? I might add that I owe 300k on my credit cards and second mortgage as well! Is everything still O.K. so far? Are you still going to give me the loan? Does lots of DEBT make any difference at all? Some people believe the government can just print money forever and our markets and economies will be just fine. The problem is the markets themselves will at some point call BULLSHIT and cause the crisis...probably a credit or currency crises. Sure, at first the safe haven will be the U.S. dollar, but eventually... Example of excess in our economy: I have a piece of cardboard worth apparently 15k. It's a gem-mint 10 Jerry Rice 1986 rookie card that I bought for $4 in 1987 and it's listed on the internet for over 15k. I find that ridiculous, but it gets worse...I know someone who wants to borrow from their credit card to pay for it. I wouldn't doubt they've bought bitcoin this way as well.
seems conventional wisdom ish. this view is too popular among retail traders, hence - - checking account cash balance is at all time high; - retail is crowded in gold (perceived safe asset); - retail is crowded in bitcoin (perceived safe asset); - retail is still relatively short/flat in stocks.. not as extreme as 2016 and 2017, but sentiment is still bearish (which is bullish for stocks);
To counter what you've stated: -margin debt in stock market at all time high -gold is in a 7 year bear market -bitcoin also in a bear market I agree that what you've stated may help in the short term, but my initial opinion was based on the next ten years...how do you argue the long term?
Or why. If it's both, and it is, then the next ten years may be just like the last ten, or they may be different. Human nature, which is is manifest in vanity, greed, and instinct, changes imperceptibly slowly in comparison to a a human lifetime. Therefore, the future will rhyme with the past, and the past will be prologue for the future.