Why is it so hard for people to ignore the daily news? See the car sales down +30% in the LATEST month? notice the dire predictions for the christmas sales? The only bottoms around here, need toilet paper...
After RiceRocket's T-bond call it's dumbfounding that anyone would question his identity. The guy made the best call I've ever seen on this site just a couple weeks ago. Not only was it a massive winner, but the logic behind it was easy to research and confirm yourself before the move. Thanks for posting your thoughts RiceRocket. Some of us appreciate it. RR, what do you think about this nonfarm? Who in their right mind would be long going into it? All signs (claims, adp, challenger, ism non employment index, etc) are pointing to a terrible print. Given that a bad one is pretty obvious, and therefore discounted in the market, I'm thinking of buying the dip in the morning.
I agree that things are looking better. I mean, gasoline is half what it was a few months ago and that was paralyzing to many. In my neck of the woods, I'm seeing more people in restaurants too. I think people may have chewed their credit up so they aren't buying big ticket items like they used to, but with as many people going through financial failure, all you have left is people who are trying to rebuild or the folks in stronger positions. I see my friends spending their money more frivolously. Maybe its because they are saving on gas, saving on any interest payment tied to the prime, or maybe its because they are so desensitized by the constant bad news on television that they are just tuning it out. Dunno. I do know that as far as recessions go, this one is very old, relatively speaking. SM
You have to be pretty arrogant to ignore national indicators which are pointing down in favor of small, narrow anecdotal evidence around you (e.g. trucks on the road that you drive and people in restaurants that you visit) Profits are made at the margins. You think you can detect a 5% drop in retail sales at the mall just by walking around and looking at people? A 5% drop would be a major blow to retailers. If you expect to see a 50% reduction of trucks on the road, people in restaurants and shops then what you are looking for is virtual economic armageddon. A serious recession is caused by fairly modest losses all across the board. Decide for yourself what's real: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081204/retail_sales.html "Retailers post steep sales declines in November"
Wal-Mart reported a 3.4 percent gain in same-store sales Costco reported a 5 percent decline in same-store sales Bon-Ton reported a 16 percent decline in same-store sales Pacific Sunwear reported a 10 percent decline. -------------------------------- I wonder if WMT gain in sales offset the decline in other retailers? Perhaps retail spending is the same, there's only so much money in the pot to go around. If you have four apple carts and 3 apple carts report a sales decline maybe we have too many apple carts. Three apple carts are a fad and have a life span.
P.F. Chang's was packed on a Friday Night. Happy Days are here again. Seriously, these anecdotal observations are of little utility. The economy is seriously wounded and may be on a ventilator soon. The massive layoffs are coming. Everyone who thinks this will be your typical, short and shallow recession is going to shocked, IMO, as there are far deeper and more serious structural problems in our economy now - the kind that will inhibit a quick rebound.
That's because recessions in the past were mostly orchestrated by the Fed... and were "controlled slowdowns, followed by stepping on the monetary and credit-availability gas"... This time is different. It's not under control. Remember the old, "2 tumbles and a jump" signal? That was so well understood that it eventually became, "buy with both hands as soon as you see a HINT the Fed might cut rates (after a series of rate hikes)" This time, they've virtually "monetarily carpet-bombed" everything they can can think of in an effort to halt the slide.
I have to agree. I think we have another leg down, but Spring is coming.(yes, k-wave reference) Not exactly the soft-landing Greenspan was calling for, but our models are showing that things are going to consolidate for several months before moving SLOWLY higher. Please not that in this market, consolidation is +/- 300 SP points.)