Hi Brutus, I'm just going to discuss your first two trades because Trading the Open is one of my favorite subjects (trading the first one hour). First of all, what method are you using to come up with these profit-targets that your putting in limit (exit) orders? I don't like to tell someone what to do without knowing their complete trade methodology...but I will say this... fixed profit-targets for trading the first hour in the Eminis will get you into a lot of trouble. Thus, if your at a profit and you see a trend change signal prior to hitting your target...you must exit the position to protect the profit. Protecting profits...even if its a measley tick...is absolutely critical. Further...I've met more traders in all my years of trading the Eminis go broke with these fixed profit-targets in the first hour of trading. You already know how strong and volatile the first hour of trading is.... therefore...this is the worst time to ignore a trend change signal. Also, if a trader is unable to recognize a trend change signal.... that's a trader that should not be trading the first hour because the first hour will often (arguably) produce some of the most easily recognizable trend change signals in comparison to any other time of day. Secondly...just in case it has not been said already. When your at profit...you must immediately move your stop/loss protection up to breakeven (including commissions) while trading that first hour time period. Trade 1: Your stop/loss protection should have been moved to 914.00 to cover your commissions in case it suddenly reversed. By the way...at 9:54am est via 1min all session chart...that was a big time trend reversal signal @ 916.00 Trade 2: Once again...another fixed profit-target within the first hour time zone. Brutus...guess what...at 10:19am est via 1min all session chart...another big time trend reversal signal @ 907.50... in addition, a particular chart pattern (Bullish Divergence) formed (depending upon which oscillator indicator you were using). Finally, I'm a trend reversal trader. Most trend reversal traders don't pick tops and bottoms. Those that ignore all other trend reversal signals and attempts to only pick tops and bottoms...don't last too long. I guess too many traders think when something is a trend...it's either moved up strongly to the high of the day or moved down strongly to the low of the day. Thus, such traders miss those other nice strong trends with trend reversal signals in between the high and low of the day. They simply use whatever trading methodology to attempt to enter positions at the first signs of a trend reversal confirmation signal that usually had a trend exhaustion signal to warn them prior to the reversal signal. In addition...after a trend reversal trader has enter a position...they will exit the position at the next trend reversal signal (profit or loss)...sometimes immediately taking a new position with the new trend. Trend reversal traders are very patient traders and usually can get 3 to 7 trend signals per day within the Eminis. I tried to catch at least 1/2 of such trades. I'm glad you recognize what methodology you feel more comfortable with...trend continuation trade setups. You accomplish something already that many Emini traders have not...knowing what type of trade methodology fits their personality. However...you'll still need to keep one eye open for those trend reversal signals so that you can exit and protect your profits if a trend reversal signal occurs before those fixed profit-targets (if you continue using such) are reached or reached and too many people are line in front of you preventing your fill. NihabaAshi
+ 8 pts / 4 round trips (4 winners, 0 losers) Today was an excellent trading day for me except for one problem ... yesterday spooked me out. I was closing positions after they got a few points in my favor because I didn't want to lose my profits like I did yesterday. If I had gone for my usual 4.5 point profit target I would have had a + 18 point day today. In any case, this was the best day that I've had for a long time. On my entries today everything just felt right. I was calm, relaxed and was extremely focused. Today's morning moves provided excellent opportunities all over the place for me. Hopefully more days will be like today. Trade 1: The market fell and stayed put at the 970 region for a while without showing much strength so I entered short. Trade 2: Two long tail candles on the 1-min chart convinced me that the market was ready to move up after dropping 20 points and I entered long. Trade 3: Got in long at the previous 970 congestion area on a couple point pullback from the trend high. Trade 4: Went short because it looked to me like the market was starting to form a rounding top.
NihabaAshi, I went back and looked at the chart for the times you mentioned and nothing stood out to me as a trend reversal. Could you explain how you saw these two points as trend reversals. If you don't mind sharing, what are your trend reversal patterns/signals that you consider effective? Thanks ...
Hi Brutus, I'm sending you a private message. By the way...congrats on the points. It was a good day for a lot of us. NihabaAshi
hi brutus, great that you have another 10k on the sideline with a risk of 0,5% you can trade very relaxed. there is plenty of time to apply some position sizing later on. the description of your trades sounds VERY discretionary. did you relate to any indicator or pattern ? trading
-9.5 pts / 11 round trips Today was just plain stupid top picking trading. During the whole uptrend this morning I was for some reason picking tops. Once I got sucked in I kept on trying to find the top. I ended up losing alot of points doing that. Three words sum up todays trading ... dumb dumb dumb! I'm not even going to go through all my trades like I normally do because almost all my trades followed no logic. I don't think it would be beneficial to examine them. Plus, I way overtraded today with 11 trades. My account stands at $4,016.49. I dropped around $370.00 for the week. While this is better than I did the previous week (- $645.00), I will not last long unless I make some adjustments. I analyzed my trades for the week and categorized them into "trend reversal" trades and "trend continuation" trades. For my trend reversal trades I lost approximately 20 points, for my trend continuation trades I gained around 5 points. This points out something obvious, I am miserable at trend reversal trades. This is something I realized earlier this week but I continued trading them. So my adjustment for next week will be that I will not trade any "trend reversal" trades at all. None, zero, zip. I cannot afford to make these trades. I will focus all my energy on finding trend continuation patterns to trade. Have a good weekend all ... Brutus
Yes my trades are almost all discretionary. I do not use any indicator of any sort except occasionally a moving average. I do however use price patterns for the basis of my trades. Price patters always have to be interpreted in a discretionary way however.
Hi Brutus, Once again...it's important that you realize what type of trader style your comfortable with and profitable with. You realized the previous trading day that TREND REVERSAL trade setups is not your game and that you perform much better with TREND CONTINUATION trade setups. This is just a reminder of a previously Lesson you had said you had learned... I am more comfortable trading trend continuations than playing trend reversals at what I consider resistance levels... Therefore...I was a little surprise to see that you re-enter the game of Trend Reversals. I know several traders that trade the Eminis via price action only (no indicators). However...they are seasoned traders with many years of successful trading in the Eminis. With that said...since your a beginner...what price pattern trade setup do you use that's repetitive that it appears at least once per day to be so dependent upon price patterns and not on anything else other than an occassional moving average ? So...this is what I'm able to figure out on my own about your trading methology based on your previous posts that involves price pattern action: 1) Your using Japanese Candlesticks...yet, I'm not sure what patterns your using on the Emini Futures. What specific candlestick patterns are you applying to the Eminis ? 2) Your using a moving average...yet, I'm not sure what type of price moving average your using. What price moving average are you using ? 3) Your using time cycle trades or looking for trend change when a particular time is reached in the day. What time cycles are you using ? 4) Your using s/r levels...yet, I'm not sure what it's based on...all sessions...non-overnight sessions...intraday only or a mixture or all ? 5) Are you using any index analysis or S&P Cash Index analysis to help with your trend continuation trade setups ? 6) Based on some replies by other posters...I've notice them mentioning to you not to trade via intuition along with some other wisdoms. Note: They did not use the word intuition but it's basically what they meant. Simply...I'm still trying to figure out what exactly your using or what your trade methodology is. Brutus...I am aware that your new to the Emini Futures game. A well explained and well written trading methodology will get you half way down the road to whatever goals you have. If you don't have a specific trading methodology (your still developing it)... stop trading with real money and start trading via a realtime simulator while your developing your trading methodology. Then and only then...when you've felt you have a trade methodology your comfortable with and seems profitable...trade real money again. NihabaAshi
hi brutus, what you call "trade trend reversal" is nothing different then try to pick a top or bottom and hope it will work out as a trend reversal...if you compare top or bottom picking with trading retracements or continuation patterns, you will find something simple: on top or bottom picking you can be RIGHT only ONE time and be wrong X times. on retracements you can be WRONG only ONE time and be right X times...(nevertheless, picking tops or bottoms can have a positive expectancy, if you do not need too many attempts, i guess... ) trading