I think we agree on this. My primary point was that it is possible to create a computer program that makes good money. I was told years ago that it could not be done. I related my own experience, not to boast, but to support my point. I am now working an an ATS that, if successful, will mesh nicely with my first one. My goal is a meager $50-100 per day. That may sound rediculously small, but $100 per day is $25k per year, and it requires no human intervention. Earlier in the thread fearless9 said sim traders and back testers trying desperately to remove all risk. That's me to some extent. I turn 61 this month, and I have gotten very risk-averse having gone broke a couple times. But I still trade, and hope to continue the rest of my life. I am counting on my ATS to keep me in the game. BTW, this has been an unusually good thread, very thoughtful and respectful. I would love to know what alex.samant came up with, but I also respect him for keeping it to himself. [rwk]
Yes then in year 6 the market dynamics will change completely and you'll have wasted all the time and be lucky to not have given it all back. Forget quants and just learn to read the weather and dress properly.
rwk: Thank you for your kind considerations. I think i will surprise you when i say this: I am not using the RSI at all. It was only research that i do because i like to watch different indicator behavior in different market conditions. My use of indicators is fairly limited to those derived from moving averages. I actually don't use more than moving averages. Two timeframes, each with a longer and shorter EMA. That's it. I got used to seeing when a swing is powerful and when not. I got used to "sniffing" when a retracement is too strong to be considered a mere dip and so on... It's screen time I guess. Of course, before getting used to "seeing" price action, i used indicators, like for instance, when i wanted to see if a certain swing has power and it's worth trading the retracement, i used the ADX. If i wanted to see when a retracement is over, i used an oscillator and so on.... But they are all "false illusions" and you better get used to not using them.
As for respectful and thoughtful threads, my 2 cents: People who start threads should respect anyone who posts in their threads. People who start threads and hold their own opinions sacredly don't actually need other people's opinions so the only reason they started the thread is to draw attention to themselves.
if you know what you're after, yes. but the result should be a steady eq curve. the fortune will follow up.
Sharing your system has two advantages: 1. It helps you to advance your own understanding of the markets and how you trade them. 2. It allows for the incorporation of good input from others. Sharing a system won't make even so much as a riple in the market. Do yourself a favour and look up the total amount of contracts traded on the ES yesterday. Do you really think you're going to change a market like that by sharing your little system? The truth is that when you share your system most people won't care, even if it'll make them more then rich. If you find some people who do care you can use their input and creativity to increase the profitability of yourself and all those who are involved.
1) Sharing an indicator does not matter since its not a trading strategy. 2) Most people can not trade even if they finally find a winning strategy. 3) Most people who trade are gamblers. I read a cool article in the last Maxim magazine about the wolf of wall street. His "edge" was that he discovered that many of the top 5% of the richest families in the world were made up of degenerate gamblers. He then taught his friends and employees to sound like stock brokers. Next they would manipulate small cap stocks by having the firm buy low, call all of their clients to run up the price, and then dump at the highs. Of course this is illegal and he did go to jail.
We've had several wise posts from good traders on this thread. As usual, traders reveal themselves through their posts, and it is in the process of discovery that knowledge is transferred. In othe words, by engaging in dialogue with other good traders which mirror your own findings you are able to gain greater knowldge of trading, both as a science (which it is) and an art (which it also is), NOT by having someone reveal the secrets of the temple ... Good trading to all, JJ