The Dow since 1915

Discussion in 'Trading' started by harrytrader, Jan 10, 2004.

  1. Just for the Memoir of Future Generation ... when it will collapse I bet the majority of the fools who pretend today that this time is different will just pretend that it was obvious that it couldn't last.
    Of course I'm not talking for tomorrow but for a few years ahead since I think the bubble can still last a bit:

    <IMG SRC=>
  2. Definition of Cancer:

    "any malignant growth or tumor caused by abnormal and uncontrolled cell division". Could this applie to the Market ?
  3. Uh, Harry, you might want to set your chart scale to LOG. Then you get a nice gentle uptrend - sort of like the US GDP!

    Sorry, but your crash theory just won't fly, or at least it would be but a fleeting moment in most investing lives.

    For reference please see "Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns", Dimson and Marsh.

    After 100 years of uptrend, I like the odds!
  4. I was about to post the very same thing.
  5. Hahahaha it is just because it approaches 100 years that the danger is here. Are you ignorant of market's cycle on big scale : the order is about 100 years !!!? And do you know that for talking about odd something must be reproducible: this means you must find among 30 samples of 100 years stock market something that has lasted so long: this means 3000 years of statistical data. So you make me laugh. Really astonishing : you merit to figure in the next "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions of 21th Century" from Charles MacKay II :D. BTW you remind me of the stupid crowd during the Missipi scheme:

    "Marshal Villars, was so vexed to see the
    folly which had smitten his countrymen, that he never could speak with
    temper on the subject. Passing one day through the Place Vendome in
    his carriage, the choleric gentleman was so annoyed at the infatuation
    of the people, that he abruptly ordered his coachman to stop, and,
    putting his head out of the carriage window, harangued them for full
    half an hour on their "disgusting avarice." This was not a very wise
    proceeding on his part. Hisses and shouts of laughter resounded from
    every side, and jokes without number were aimed at him. There being at
    last strong symptoms that something more tangible was flying through
    the air in the direction of his head, Marshal was glad to drive on. He
    never again repeated the experiment."

  6. cvds16


    think this is the first thing that comes up with everybody who is used to watching charts so harrytrader try to give us the log-scaled chart, it would put things in a better perspective.
  7. Do you know what log scale means statistically ? Log scale is used to render the statistical curve as normal as possible to make statistical inference, after that it has to be converted back to the linear scale. The true thing is as it is : you can't change its nature by using log scale: it is a mathematical, virtual operation it doesn't change the physical thing haha !

  8. harry, that is interesting. I agree that it looks like a bubble. It reminds me of all the charts I looked at, at the end of '99 and beginning of 2000. From what I see, a retracement should find support around the 4000 level. However, in a more macro view, it looks like it is at the beginning of wave 3.

    "At the height of the tulip bubble about 350 years ago, the rare Semper Augustus flower was worth 6 000 florins approximately 1 million dollar in today's money. "

    OK as suggested let's try I will take my calculator it gives
    Ln(1000000) = 13.81 oh yeah the tulip is much cheaper suddenly let's buy it hee hee !
  10. Harry, Harry, Harry...please get your head out of the sand (or out of your ass?:D ).

    Your "hundred year cycle" theory is about as worthless as your other drivel. It has no meaning to the thinking trader/investor and ESPECIALLY it has no meaning to the dominate economic and military force on this planet - The United States.

    Cummon Harry, use that head of yours for something other than a wine depository and THINK! Even if there was a vicious crash in the next HUNDRED years, I guarantee you will never predict when it will happen.

    Just go with the flow. Trade 'em and make some money for once!

    PPP over and out. :cool:
    #10     Jan 10, 2004