ROFL...That is the beauty of it. So many scenarios...so many opportunities. BTW some folks don’t like postulating the market as a battlefield. Doesn’t matter they can call it an auction and probing price is the action. It is all the same. We can call it what we want doesn’t change a thing.
3 years ago I put up the thread 'are we gonna run out of shares', when QQQ was at 105.. 80 points later the fundamentals have not changed, equities are still dirt cheap... 3 years ago anybody asked the same question and did some independent thinking could have made a killing and potentially be set for life.... on paper market timing can generate killer returns, yet 95% of professionals can't beat the SPY... and nobody can beat the QQQ... so why bother. the moms and pops just need better education... take Warren Buffett's guideline, only buy so much stock to sleep well if there is a 50% down...
Triangles and other chart patterns can be coded and backtested, just like anything else. Bulkowski tested 899 ascending triangles, resulting in a 63% chance of a BO. His parameters were very general. So it is not a "sure thing." But... with proper risk management it could do OK. It is currently not one of my trades however.
hm good to know..thx. however, if it's an ascending triangle then 'BO' is simply a continuation of the trend... probably with an odds of ~60% anyway... in other words I can say if the linear regression is rising then there is a 60% chance (just guessing) that the price will go higher.. regardless triangle or not.. my theory is... just get the macro correct... like we may actually run out of shares lol... drawing lines and shit... very little help... probably much less useful than sentiment.. e.g. buy whenever VIX>30 or when AAII bearish >40 etc...
Whatever works for you is the way to go. There are so many different successful techniques. If you are successful, that is all that counts. Quant, macro, whatever... as long as it works well. Here is a successful guy not named Warren Buffett - Jim Simons.
touched upon this point before... Warren actually already conceded that he can't beat the SP. the analysis stuff worked in the early part of his career when 'value metrics analysis' still had an edge.
it was in reply to the above comment that i read charts well then why did you compliment me that too was irrelevant to this thread