Everything eventually shows up in PA. There are always, at all times, bearish and bullish institutions playing the markets for a variety of reasons. The one thing they cannot do is “hide” overall what they are doing as it always shows up, sooner or later. In the chart above why did price go up from the previous range at the bottom left and do so in a tight channel with small PB’s and gaps between close of one bar and the close of the previous bar or two bars or three bars (etc..) and between the high of one bar and the highs of the last 3 bars AND the fact that there are more bull bars than bear bars in the move up and LARGER BULL bars than bear bars in the entire move up? ONE REASON ONLY. Bullish institution are winning..bearish institutions are losing or capitulating and becoming bullish. It certainly is NOT the volpri’s..padu’s and bones of the market creating this PA. We are not doing diddly squat. Forget the retail trader. We are just a tiny drop in a big ocean. Market moves are created and driven by institutions and the ultimate direction is based upon fundamentals. TA reflects the path the path they take to get it there. They cannot hide. IT WILL ALWAYS SHOW UP. In a bull trend you get deep PB’s because bearish institutions are pushing hard trying to reverse the trend. Same with sideways moves whether they be in a flag...pennant...triangle...range ..whatever..the sideways moves (in whatever pattern they evolve into) cannot last indefinitely. Both sides are pushing and that creates sideways patterns. They can last quite abit but sooner or later they have to end, and WILL end. One side will win. They cannot hide (either side) because their buying and selling will always show up. They are pushing with size.... Forget about them running your stoploss. They ain’t interested in your nickel or dime. They are after each others BIG BUCKS. If your stop gets hit it is just because you happened your stop in a place, in a battlefield, where some serious push and pull was taking place and your tiny peanut position just got caught up in the struggle and medley of pressures. They ARE not sitting around twiddling their thumbs and colluding just waiting for for padu or volpri or any other peanut trader to place their stop so they can collude and run the stops. We just get caught in the crossfire of pressures. I know ...it looks like collusion and obstruction of justice. Price goes one tick beyond your stop..takes you out then reverses violently in the direction you had previously bet on and you are left with your eyeballs spinning around..your coffee cup on the floor, your wife cackling like a frightened hen, and you ready to take a hammer to the moniter. No collusion. No obstruction. Just read the Mueller report. It will explain. As much as we want to find collusion...obstruction...manipulation to justify WHY WE LOSE in the markets or politics (like the liberals..LOL) just give it up boys..take the loss. Next time use better stop placement or skip the trade is good stoploss placement is too much risk for your palate. If I place a good logical stop and get taken out then I quickly change my mind on market probable direction and may in fact double up..triple up..quadruple up....(you get the idea) and go in the unexpected direction. I quickly get back my loss (if I am lucky LOL) and am soon in the money sailing along with the winning institutions......The harder I work ( trying to assign odds to market probable direction) the luckier I get and the more flexible I am to market direction when my premises fall apart the luckier I get.. I will quickly issue a letter of intent to divorce my position and marry another (for a bit..LOL) as soon as some unfaithfulness occurs. Trading consists of many marriages...divorces...and hopefully coming out financially ahead. But as in anything good results come when there are good contingency plans in place and a modus operandi to mitigate bad marriages in the markets.....ROFLMAO
Any sideways move that has 5 legs up or down can be called a triangle even if it doesn’t look like a triangle. Nevertheless, most triangles have converging or diverging lines as tgey form the tight pattern. The range in the chart at the top has three pushes up and three pushes down so it meets the min of 5 legs. Therefore, it can be called a triangle even if it doesn’t “look” like one. It is functionally a triangle but looks more like a range. So it can be called a range too. Functionally, on a triangle pressures are mounting. Most likely, sooner than later, a successful BO in either direction will occur. Triangles can be reversal or continuation patterns. The context to the left is bullish. A range functionally can have many failed BO’s. And the sideways pattern can go for many bars without have many pushes up or down (that breaks above the high or low of the previous bar). That it is is just a sideways move of up and down in a tight range. The thing to remember about ranges is that most BO’s fail and price goes back into the range. Since the larger context in this case is bullish and the sideways action looks like a range but has characteristics of a triangle (at least 5 legs up or down) the odds favor a BO to the upside. That is a continuation. Plus the fact that every push down is being immediately bought (tails on bottons). Said another way every reversal attempt is failing. Pressure has more upside than downside when you look at the entire picture. It really doesn’t matter what you call it ..range..or triangle...but it does have sonething to do with the odds of a successful BO direction. At this moment that favors up. But the longer it goes sideways the closer to 50/50 it becomes in terms of BO direction. So I favor upside BO direction but would be ready to throw that premise and judgement in the trash can if the unexpected event happens and price goes south in terms of movement. That is what I mean by contingency plans. In the meantime if I wanted to just scalp while awaiting a BO I can do that too. Actually, many scalps and even BO’s on a smaller TF’s are embedded within this monthly sideways pattern.
LOL THEY AIN’T cause PATTERNS FORM AS pressures enter the battlefield as institutions fight it out pushing and pulling..filling orders ..etc. The lines and patterns are just indicative of the underlying pressures. Much like a wrestler that has another in a headlock (a pattern of tangled bodies emerges as pressure is being apply) the contortions...LOL
I hear you man... thing is - isn't that all obvious just by looking at a naked chart.. stuff is very simple - if the fundamentals support and the chart is going up, just buy. fact is - those who blindly contribute to their company 401k, probably outperform 95% of the people who draw lines and try to time it.
Humble cut Padu some slack. He is happy to be making money after all these years. Nothing wrong with a little rejoicing. It wasn’t long ago you were jetsetting around somewhere in Asia and bragging about some of your trades. We all do! Remember the old song...by Mac Davis
True but lines give a little structure to it and it takes time for the naked eye to learn to see patterns without training wheels....
1) reversals happen. Eventually fundamentals turn. 2) Plenty of investors in mutual funds have gotton hammered when markets turn. And lost their savings when they were just told to hang on..it will come back. 3) Charts can’t just keep going on. There will always be reversals...PB’s..so timing is always involved even if an investor. Over decades you could say something just keeps going up but when the drawdowns hit they can be too big for the mom and pop retail investor. Wiping out his account. 4) Trading and timing offer the opportunities of compounding profits which can’t be done on buy and hold strategies ..not on the same scale.
A little later I will have more to say about successful BO’s but have a new dishwasher to install so gotta jump. Nine-ender might wanna block me out. He may have done it already! Nevertheless, I have good friends from Canada even if they may not like MR T and all his winning...ROFLMAO
You can make a case for ANY scenario using Technical Analysis. Fact of the matter is that Commercials have been using every correction since 2009 to accumulate long equity positions at average prices considerably cheaper than current valuations. It’s what they do. They collect 401K and pension allocations and put it to work. Even the December and January correction wasn’t substantial enough to change that game plan. What many retailers here on ET were convinced was the start of a Bear market was instead another opportunity for averaging in. Obviously. IMO it’s going to take a string of missed earnings to get the Commercials to change course.