The 'Dollar Is Going to Crash' Crowd Are Oblivious...

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, May 23, 2009.

  1. the wisdom of men like Daniel Tenengauzer.

    ...To be sure, a bet on the dollar's weakness is a bet on the global economy recovering. The opposite could also hold true. Despite the dollars recent swoon, Banc of America-Merrill Lynch foreign-exchange strategist Daniel Tenengauzer reiterated his contrarian view Thursday that the dollar will strengthen in coming months. That is despite chatter, especially among Chinese and Russian officials, that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is no longer assured.

    Mr. Tenengauzer says long-term changes in U.S. consumer spending and savings rates will keep U.S. trade deficits low, which produces dollar strength. He anticipates the euro will weaken to $1.20 in the third quarter of 2009. "It's about an unwinding of an entire layer of consumption that evolved around a more indebted consumer," he says.

    And also to the wisdom of still others...

    ...Some experts say fears of inflation and the loss of the dollar’s strength are overblown.

    With the global economy in its worst downturn since World War II, and European banks facing up to $1 trillion in new losses from Eastern European investments, the euro may begin to weaken on its own against the dollar, they say. The United States remains the world’s default reserve currency, these experts add, and Treasury debt is still considered the world’s safest investment.

    The Federal Reserve’s own forecasts call for inflation to hover in a “low range,” rising only about 0.6 to 0.9 percent this year. Consumer prices dropped sharply over the last six months as demand plummeted, and prices were flat last month after falling slightly in March.

    According to the Labor Department, consumer prices in April were down 0.7 percent from a year earlier, their biggest decline in decades. Airline tickets cost less, gasoline is cheaper than last year, and retailers are still offering deep discounts to beckon consumers.
  2. WOW! Your a negativity freak! Do you spend your life looking for negative things to post? You must get off to being a loser. Every post on here from you is gloom and doom and ridiculous. BOO! , now run hide under your bed LOL.
  3. Exactly. See, everyone else on here (practically) is doom and gloom.

    I'm a ray of sunshine in a dark and foreboding room.
  4. greg500


    Dear Bylowsellhi,

    I simply trade the ES for a living, I've been trading since 1998.

    Through intense grinding, I've been able to make an acceptable living.

    As the economy changes, I worry that the market will become useless.

    Could you please provide a brief summary of what you think will happen to the US in the next few months to a year?

    If recession turns to depression, what does that mean for my family. House, food, safety, etc...

    Thank You!

  5. the1


    I just got back from Chili's and on a Saturday night at 6:30 the restaurant was barely 1/2 full. Ordinarily, you'd have to wait 20 min's. Don't know if the gloom and doom forecasts will come true but the current economic conditions are as bad as I've seen.

  6. kxvid


    I am as bullish on gold as anyone, but I still think the dollar crash crowd is off the mark. I think we are going to see a long period of increased savings, and decreased spending. All of which will contain inflation.

    I think it will be a buyers market for assets such as houses, stocks, cars, commodities for a long time to come. Despite the massive money printing, the economy will stay stagnant just like Japan, and there will be another lost decade. Yes we will see a decreased standard of living, but alot of it will be voluntary. I don't think we are going to turn into Mexico by tomorrow.

    By the end of Obama's 2nd term things might be looking up, with a more stabilized economy built on more sustainable systems. Americans are the hardest working people on earth (Japanese don't count they are machines) and if you are hardworking there will always be a way for you in this country.
  7. You see...nobody ever thinks it can happen to them. Especially americans. Look at the USSR. Did anyone see them collapsing (assumming not everyone in here is 18 years old and doesnt know what the USSR is)

    I mean look at how shocking 9/11 was. All that happened was 2 buildings and 4 airplanes were destroyed that day and 3,000 people died and look how that shocked America. (by comparison...12,500 people die every day in america by all causes like car wrecks, heart attacks, old age, ect.)

    People are so blind to bad things happening to "their" country they wont even look at the evidence of what is happening right now.

    I bet you 100 to 1 there was more than a few russians telling people to buy gold because the economy was going to collapse soon and I bet you there were TONS of other russians that said "No vay, dat ken nyever heppen to mudder russia"
  8. You're one step ahead of me if successful; You're a trader.

    I have the luxury of time. Traders do not.

    I am extremely bearish on the economy but bullish on the USD.

    Americans are not spending money. Europe is as deeply infected if not more so than the U.S. The stimulus money being printed and borrowed is not going to consumers, to spend in stores and shoppes and restaurants, but to units of government, so they can scale back the layoffs and pay for teachers and maintenance.

    Does anyone here actually think we'll see wage inflation in the U.S. any time soon?

    If not, the question is at least 50% settled.

  9. USD = Best in Show over the next decade.

    The U.S. still does and for a long time will be the consumption train pulling the global economy.

    The only other country that comes close on a PER CAPITA BASIS is the U.K., but it's one fifth the size of the U.S., and incomes are 74% as much.
  10. clacy


    I agree with much of what you're saying, except if that vision comes to fruition, Obama won't likely get a 2nd term.
    #10     May 23, 2009