Well in regards to the brain drain -- Putin is now taking measures to not allow Jews and technology workers leave Russia. On top of arresting scientists for "treason" to send messages throughout the sector. We are back to the good 'ole Soviet times again. Soon the Lada will be a status symbol in Russia again for the few who can afford a used one.
I don't think this plan by the West to force Russia to sell oil for only $40 to $60 per barrel is going to work very well. India and China will gladly bypass the "oil price sanctions" and pay more. US, Allies Discuss Capping Russian Oil at $40-$60 a Barrel to Cut War Financing US also weighing enforcement tools, including sanctions Secondary sanctions seen as a measure of last resort https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-discuss-capping-russian-oil-prices-at-40-60 The US and its allies have discussed trying to cap the price on Russian oil between $40 and about $60 a barrel, according to people familiar with the matter. Allies have been exploring several ways to limit Russia’s oil revenues while minimizing the impact on their own economies in discussions that began in the run-up to the Group of Seven summit. At the summit in Germany on June 28 leaders agreed to explore options to cap prices by banning insurance and transportation services needed to ship Russian crude and petroleum products unless the oil is purchased below an agreed price. A more specific threshold would depend on market conditions when a cap is agreed and those could change significantly. Before Monday’s mini-rout in headline oil prices, Russian crude was probably trading around the $80-a-barrel mark. Information about transactions in the nation’s barrels has become less visible since the invasion. The range spans from what is believed to be Russia’s marginal cost of production and the price of its oil before the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, the people said. The Biden administration considers a cap of $40 to be too low, two of the people said. The aim is to cut Moscow’s revenue for its war in Ukraine but the risk is that poorly executed measures would lead to a spike in oil prices. The Biden administration has so far steered away from deploying extra-territorial secondary sanctions to enforce restrictions imposed on Russia and such moves are usually seen with concern among some European allies. Their use alongside a price cap is likely a measure of last resort, according to one of the people. Biden administration officials are having multiple meetings a week on the price cap now, trying to push it into reality, one official said. The effort will intensify in the coming weeks, the official said. Spokespeople for the White House National Security Council didn’t immediately comment on the discussions. While oil caps got a mention in the G-7 communique, there is a lot of skepticism that an agreement will be reached in the near future as the idea still needs fleshing out and there are a number of obstacles. Nevertheless, discussions are ongoing to try to nail down a concrete proposal. A ‘Price Cap’ on Russian Energy -- Could That Work?: QuickTake One issue is that the mechanism would require the European Union to introduce exemptions to sanctions the bloc adopted at the beginning of June when it agreed to an outright ban on those services after overcoming weeks of intense negotiations between member states. EU sanctions require unanimity and the backing of all 27 member states. The UK is also poised to introduce restrictions on its insurers and service providers, one of the people familiar said. The US is concerned that the European ban as is, which in the EU’s case begins to come into force at the end of the year, could contribute to oil prices spiking even further -- to as high as $185 a barrel according to some estimates -- and potentially could lead to a global recession, the people said. Together with the UK, the EU covers most of the global insurance market and Russia would find it difficult to move its product without access to those services. G-7 countries and the EU have already agreed to phase out importing Russian oil. But as they have done that, Moscow has looked to increase exports to other buyers at a discounted price. Russia is still taking more than $600 million a day from oil, even as several nations shun its supplies. The latest data shows that China has doubled in the three months ending in May what it spends on Russian oil, gas and coal. India shelled out $5.1 billion in the same period, more than five times the value of a year ago. To work, the US-driven idea of an oil cap would need to create enough of an incentive for countries to want to participate. Oil buyers would need access to lower prices and to the key services such as insurance that they need to transport the commodity. The threshold also needs to be set a level at which Russia would continue to export. The US is also weighing a number of potential enforcement tools, including possible restrictions on shipping companies that transport oil at higher prices and sanctions on banks and financial institutions that facilitate sales above any agreed threshold, the people said.
There is always a way around obstacles. Just like trying to stop illicit illegal behavior since biblical times.
Oh I don't know. A lot of moving parts here. India and China have given the finger to the west and have entered into very long and substantial oil contracts with Russia. But the bad news for Putin is that- from what I have read- is that those contracts are down in the 30 dollar/barrel range. And China has enough of a hold over Russia that you can be sure that they are always going to be getting a VERY good deal. As I have discussed a bit before, this is or will bite off some serious issues with the Saudis/OPEC over time. Russia is supposed to be part of the so-called OPEC + group which is committed to price stability/ie. price fixing when it comes to oil. But it undercuts opec when Russia starts offering deep discounts to other countries when opec would like to be selling to those countries -or having them buying in the spot market- at higher prices.
Well this helps explain why the Hermitage upkeep and construction plans have been going downhill in recent years... In related news... Let’s Use Chicago Rules to Beat Russia Why the U.S. adversary is a lot like Al Capone https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/madrid-nato-summit-2022-russia-ukraine/661494/
Only if Putin agrees. In and around Gazprom 5 high placed men "commited suicide". The last one told his wife a few days before he died, that he found out about a massive fraud in Gazprom for a huge amount of money. That meant the end of his life as Putin does not like that.
Fun stuff happening with Kazakhstan. Putin dissed Kazakh president recently. Kazakhs just replied by saying you cannot import through us anything that is sanctioned, and have started looking, actively, for redirecting their oil and gas exports away from Russia. Considering that this is backed both by China and by EU, I am sure the solution will be quick. Oh and in other news, the main Russian bank president just told us that they are reduced to digging out chips from undistributed bank cards to place them in new ones. They cannot produce the chips anymore.
Dubai is the new London, comrades... Villas by the sea: Rich Russians fleeing sanctions are pumping up Dubai’s property sector https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/ric...ns-are-pumping-up-dubais-property-sector.html