Russia is attempting to restrict exports of some raw materials. But it is likely to hurt them worse than it hurts the West. Putin orders a ban on some Russian exports amid sweeping Western sanctions and US energy import restrictions https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-orders-ban-some-russian-exports-western-sanctions-2022-3
Coupled with this are the spill-over impact on China's chip industry. If they source raw minerals or chip assemblies from Russia then their semiconductor exports will be subject to sanctions by the U.S. and Western nations. U.S. threatens to 'shut down' Chinese chipmakers if they violate Russian sanctions U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warned Chinese chip manufacturers such as SMIC could face consequences for violating a ban on exporting semiconductors to Russia. https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/chip-sanctions-china-russia
Fitch cuts Russia's rating further into junk, says debt default imminent https://www.reuters.com/markets/eur...rating-says-debt-default-imminent-2022-03-08/
Of course its imminent. You don't think Russia is going to go "ok, you folks are cutting me off financially on everything, but I'll keep good on my debt obligations", do you?
China does not want it's access to parts and information for the commercial planes it flies cut off by the U.S. & EU due to sending parts to Russia. Russia says China refuses to supply aircraft parts after sanctions https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...ly-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/
An interesting read on Russia's economy being built to withstand sanctions and collapse... and they have endured these type of problems in the past & cycled out of it. Russia built an economy like a fortress but the pain is real Sanctions are hitting Russia's economy hard https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russia-built-economy-fortress-pain-real-83361604 Western sanctions are dealing a severe blow to Russia's economy. The ruble is plunging, foreign businesses are fleeing and sharply higher prices are in the offing. Familiar products may disappear from stores, and middle-class achievements like foreign vacations are in doubt. Beyond the short-term pain, Russia's economy will likely see a deepening of the stagnation that started to set in long before the invasion of Ukraine. But a total collapse is unlikely, several economists say. Despite the punishing financial sanctions, Russia has built “an economy that’s geared for conflict," said Richard Connolly, an expert on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain. The Russian government’s extensive involvement in the economy and the money it is still making from oil and gas exports — even with bans from the U.S. and Britain — will help soften the blow for many workers, pensioners and government employees in a country that has endured three serious financial crises in the past three decades. And as economists point out, Iran, a much smaller and less diversified economy, has endured sanctions misery for years over its nuclear program without a complete breakdown. Still, the Russian currency has fallen spectacularly, which will drive up prices for imported goods when inflation was already running hot at 9%. It took 80 rubles to get one U.S. dollar on Feb. 23, the day before the invasion. By Thursday, it was 119 — even after Russia's central bank took drastic measures to stop the plunge, including doubling interest rates to 20%. Marina Albee, owner of the Cafe Botanika vegetarian restaurant in St. Petersburg's historic city center, has already heard from her fruit and vegetable supplier that prices will be going up 10% to 50%. Other suppliers can't say how much. The cafe imports dried seaweed and smoked tofu from Japan, mini asparagus from Chile, broccoli from Benin, basmati rice and coconut oil from India. “We're waiting for the tsunami to hit — the tsunami being the price increases for everything we purchase,” Albee said. "We need to keep our eye on the situation and, if we need to, take those dishes out of the menu." “We can reengineer our menu to make more Russian-based dishes," she said. “You have to be quick on your feet.” After surviving two years without tourists because of the COVID-19 pandemic, “it takes a lot to faze us,” Albee added. Although sanctions have frozen a large portion of Russia’s foreign currency reserves, state finances are in good shape with low debt. When the government does need to borrow, its creditors are mostly domestic banks, not foreign investors who could abandon it in a crisis. The government announced support this week for large companies deemed crucial to the economy. Estimates of the short-term impact on Russia's economic growth vary widely because more sanctions could come and the fallout from President Vladimir Putin's war are uncertain. “Russians will be a lot poorer — they won’t have cash to holiday in Turkey or send their kids to school in the West — and even then, because of Putin, they will not be welcome,” said Tim Ash, senior emerging market sovereign analyst at BlueBay Asset Management. He sees economic growth dropping 10%, while other economists see a drop of as little as 2% or something in between. Long-term prospects for a growing economy are not good — for enduring reasons that predate the war: A few favored insiders control major companies and sectors, resulting in a lack of competition and new investment. Russia has failed to diversify away from its dominant oil and gas sector. Per capita income in 2020 was roughly what it was in 2014. Foreign investment built up over the 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the jobs it brought are heading for the door. Big corporations like Volkswagen, Ikea and Apple have idled plants or halted sales, while energy giants BP, Exxon and Shell have said they will stop buying Russian oil and gas or exit partnerships there. On Wednesday, ratings agency Fitch cut its credit rating for the country further into junk status and warned of an imminent default on sovereign debt. The central bank has stepped in to bolster the ruble and the banking system, restrict withdrawals in foreign currency and keep the stock market closed for nearly two weeks. The government also has announced measures to restrict foreign investors from fleeing. While such restrictions shore up the financial system against utter collapse, they also close off the economy to trade and investment that could fuel growth. Since facing sanctions over its 2014 seizure of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, the Kremlin has anticipated such measures would be the West's primary weapon in any conflict. In response, it has devised what Connolly, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and author of a book on Russia’s response to sanctions, calls “the Kalashnikov economy,” a reference to the Russian military rifle. It's “a durable, in some ways primitive system," he said, based on low debt, government control of most of the banking system and a central bank able to intervene and prop up the currency and banks. While trade will fall and fewer goods will be available, the weaker ruble means the Russian government will earn more of its currency for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars. With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the amount of rubles from oil compared with 2019, money that can cover salaries and pensions. While U.S. and British officials said they will ban the relatively small amount of oil they import from Russia, Europe, which is much more dependent on Russian energy, has held back. As it stands, “there's a lot of holes in this, and the Russians will exploit this and develop a way of carrying on," Connolly said. “I’m not saying they’re going to have a wonderful time. I’m saying they have the resources to deal with these problems,” he said. The long-term impact for Putin's government in domestic politics is hard to predict. Simon Commander, managing partner at Altura Partners advisory firm and a former World Bank official, says “buoyant popularity for the regime fueled by increased prosperity ... seems unattainable.” “That may not translate into open dissension, let alone revolt, but it will hardly bolster support for the autocrat,” he said.
The Russian economy will shrink by at least 15% this year, according to an assessment from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), a financial services trade group. The IIF had previously predicted that Moscow's economy would grow by 3% in 2022, but now says that sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine "have led to a drastic and unprecedented tightening in financial conditions, which signals a deep recession". Experts warned that the decline could be even sharper should there be additional Western boycotts of Russian energy supplies. Such a move "would drastically impair Russia's ability to import goods and services, deepening the recession," the IIF said.
Iconic Russian car maker reportedly forced to halt production due to Western sanctions https://news.yahoo.com/iconic-russian-car-maker-reportedly-184858699.html In just one on-the-ground example of the effect Western sanctions are having on the Russian economy, production of a car long considered a symbol of the country's "self-reliance" post-Cold War was brought to a halt on Wednesday now that its parent company's been "deprived" of "the parts and supplies it needs to make cars," The Wall Street Journal reports per individuals with knowledge of the situation. The factory for the homegrown Lada car has reportedly placed thousand of workers on leave, a stoppage once considered "unthinkable," the Journal writes. A spokesperson for Lada's parent company AvtoVAZ said the company had planned to halt production until March 11 due to the global chip shortage; he did not comment on the sanctions. It's just the latest disruption for a Russian economy "beginning to feel the bite of sanctions the West imposed on Moscow" after President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of neighboring Ukraine, the Journal reports. Over 20 percent of AvtoVAZ's parts are brought in from outside Russia, said sources familiar with the matter. "If trade stops, AvtoVAZ stops," said a former company board member. "Putin knows that he can't do it by himself." The ex-member added that it could take months or perhaps years to restart production without French car maker Renault SA, who now owns AvtoVAZ. That in mind, Russia would be facing a "new-vehicle shortage if car makers like AvtoVAX remain paralyzed." Lada is the country's only native brand with "significant market share," and is also "part of Russia's national psyche," similar to General Motors for the U.S., the Journal writes. "They still need to move, whether the country is at war or not," Thomas Besson, an analyst at brokerage firm Kepler Cheuvreux told the Journal. "That still requires someone to make the cars."
There was a link to a bonus article there in that article- which is pretty rich too. How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian...es-might-explain-russias-stalled-40-mile-long