At what point would you look back and say "I think I was over optimistic on my theory of how it would impact Russia"? 6 Months? A year?
That depends. If Russia starts putting in price controls and rationing, even if they keep the ruble stable, I would say that the sanctions are effective. Some are saying Russia could see a 10% contraction and unemployment as high as 20%this year. That would be another indication of sanctions working. Where I would say I was overly optimistic is if they just opened up their currency and didn’t fall into recession. It would be hard to disagree with you there. The big point is the Russians can manipulate their currency, as they are doing now, with a lot of different schemes but that doesn’t necessarily mean the sanctions aren’t working.
It would be the understatement of the year to say that there are a lot of fake oil games and scrambling going on right now. Ironically, Venezuela which - as we know- is highly sanctioned as it is- is taking it up the bo-bo even more now. They have been shipping oil through Russian Rosneft facilities and ownership to make it qualify or be concealed as a Russian rather than Venezuelan asset. But now their Ruskie buddies are being sanctioned too. What to do? Crank up the games even more. Bottom line, the oil is going to flow and Russia will get paid from all the whores and gameplayers out there. Everyone knows that. Longer game though, it gonna hurt Russia because the U.S. has its own oil that it can crank up and Canada wants to output more, and the US will cut a deal with Venezuela and Venezuela will be more than willing to go there since their Ruskie buddies dont have the dollars (excuse, I meant to say rubles) to be as helpful with their development anymore and their being sanctioned themselves makes them a liability. Also, all the dickheads like Saudi Arabia who are playing hard to get on oil have their price, and backchannel requirements and when the whores see them being met, the oil flows, as oil. Plus Biden and company are currently in the process of of putting on dresses and performing sexual acts for the Iranians to get a nuke deal, so those sanctions will be gone and there is another pantload of oil on the market. So Russia will be grinning like a cat on the short term oil situation as they see their snake games working. Longer term though, they have set a lot of things in motion that work against them. And ditto for the whole natural gas scenario and market. As I have said before in regard to Venezuelan oil, if I have to choose between getting oil from a country that has no army threat, versus from another dictator who hates my guts, has nukes, is currently trying to expand a current war, and who the President of the United States just said needs to be removed, I am prepared to make that decision. No prob. I am prepared to work with the Canadians too, No problem. And to pump more American oil, no problemo.
The right way to do this would be for the US to begin to corner the oil market. But alas, we know how that is going to play with Biden and progressive lunatics.
sorry but both of y’all are wrong here. There’s more oil “on water” because Russia can’t find enough takers for its oil and ships are actually returning to Russia. I have no doubt there is scams going but Russia isn’t there yet. What they have delivered is already contracted out and settled. I will add to this that last week the Russians stipulated all oil and gas has to be settled in rubles and the Germans of all people said nein!. Yesterday or so the Russians capitulated. India is now in the box of no oil for rupees. So where is Russia actually going to go? Not to mention that Ural crude is some nasty shit and not everywhere can handle refining it. Anyways, April 4th coupon payments are due and then we’ll have a good indication of where Russia is.
And so, if Russia is not shipping oil, that negates my post about alternative souces such as VZ, Iran, Canada, and US increases being in play? Tao Tse Ting's post was not necessarily mine. Au contraire, Monsieur le Tardaire. Think about it a little.