Remember this thread? Back in 2022 when we were told Russia was falling apart and would breakup within months?
Putin's economy now is basically based on selling oil and gas to fund his flailing military. Not really sustainable in the long term. Putin Breaks New Record In Post-Cold War Era As Pressure Builds Over Ukraine Conflict It comes as the Russian leader adds an extra 133,000 conscripts to his army. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...st-soviet-heights_uk_66fbaa77e4b0ccc050c45f37 Vladimir Putin has just hiked up defence spending in Russia to its highest level since the Cold War. The Russian president plans to push national defence up by 25% for 2025, taking it to 6.3% of gross domestic product, according to draft budget documents reported by Reuters. It means defence spending will be at 13.5 trillion roubles (£108 billion) next year, and account for 32% of the total budget. That’s twice the amount Russia currently allocates to social needs, like pensions. About a tenth of the total defence spending goes on paying military personnel. According to Reuters, the minimum wage of troops on the frontline also just hit a new post-Soviet high, with servicemen reaching salaries of up to 3.25 million roubles (£26,107) in their first year. Putin just called for his army to be expanded, too, saying he needs 180,000 extra troops. That would mean Russia had 1.5m active servicemen, and making it the second largest army in the world after China. Putin has also ordered the conscription of 133,000 new servicemen – aged between 18 and 30 – for their annual draft that starts this month. In a sign of just how the Ukraine war has intensified recently, last year’s draft budget showed the Kremlin wanted to cut back on defence spending by 21% in 2025. That’s twice the amount Russia currently allocates to social needs, like pensions. About a tenth of the total defence spending goes on paying military personnel. According to Reuters, the minimum wage of troops on the frontline also just hit a new post-Soviet high, with servicemen reaching salaries of up to 3.25 million roubles (£26,107) in their first year. Putin just called for his army to be expanded, too, saying he needs 180,000 extra troops. That would mean Russia had 1.5m active servicemen, and making it the second largest army in the world after China. Putin has also ordered the conscription of 133,000 new servicemen – aged between 18 and 30 – for their annual draft that starts this month. In a sign of just how the Ukraine war has intensified recently, last year’s draft budget showed the Kremlin wanted to cut back on defence spending by 21% in 2025.
These guys are going to the front too. Under Russian law you cannot send conscripts to duty outside of Russia. Only for defense of the homeland internally. Except Kursk is inside Russia. and......one of the consequences of Putin declaring Luhansk-Donetsk-Donbass territory as part of Russia is that he can now send conscripts there for their "defense." Also known as offense. Yep. Meatgrinder here we come.
At this point, many of these planes have been grounded due to lack of spare parts and the inability to do maintenance. However others are still being operated Russia effectively stole them... and will not be giving them back. Planes Seized by Russia Spark Multibillion Dollar Insurance Spat https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ssia-spark-multibillion-dollar-insurance-spat Insurance companies are trying to delay billions of dollars of claims for hundreds of aircrafts seized in Russia, lawyers for some of world’s top aircraft leasing companies alleged at the start of a London trial. Lessors such as AerCap Holdings NV sued insurers including units of AIG and Lloyd’s after Russia refused to return jets leased to local airlines following the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions by Western nations. Russia transfered almost 800 foreign-owned jets to its own aircraft register after contracts were terminated. While AerCap’s initial case for $3.4 billion has been cut to over $2 billion after settlements, claims by other lessors in the case also run into hundreds of millions of dollars, according to documents given to the court ahead of Wednesday’s hearing. Insurers deny the claims and are contesting the case citing exceptions and exclusions in their policies. The insurance market is “putting off the day of payment until a market-wide solution can be reached,” lawyers for AerCap said in documents given to the court before the Wednesday hearing. “While it must know a day of reckoning is coming it has not yet decided how it wishes to meet it.” Insurance companies previously contended the planes are not lost as Russian airlines continue to use them and specific exclusions in the policies apply, negating cover. Lawyers for insurers are yet to open their case in the trial. Of AerCap’s 141 aircraft and 29 standalone aircraft engines, 116 jets and 15 engines remain in Russia, being used by 15 airlines including Aeroflot, the nation’s largest. “The reality, which has been obvious for some considerable time, is that the aircraft and engines are lost,” AerCap’s lawyer Mark Howard said in court. Spokespeople for Aercap, LLoyd’s and AIG all declined to comment. The trial is expected to run until December and a ruling could take months after that. “These are complex, hard-fought claims where the stakes are high and the long-lasting impact could be seismic,” said Garbhan Shanks, a partner at law firm Fladgate. Fitch Ratings had in 2022 pegged the total insured residual value of aircraft held by Russia at $13 billion. Many claims have since been settled.
The only question is which oligarch buddy will Putin hand this company over to next. Gazprom becomes Russia's most unprofitable company – Forbes https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/3/7477966/
Vlad knows what the future holds. He's seen this story before. Vladimir Putin 'fears Soviet-style collapse' amid budget pressures to fund war in Ukraine Warning comes after Russia’s government unveiled plans to hike defence spending to highest levels since the Cold War https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...ussia-ukraine-war-budget-soviet-b1185899.html
It's getting to the point where a dictator can't even fund a war anymore. Putin’s North Sea oil profits collapse https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/05/putins-north-sea-oil-profits-collapse/
Just a matter of time. Tick Tock, Vlad. The Russian economy can’t sustain Putin’s war on Ukraine much longer, expert says https://fortune.com/2024/10/06/russ...r-budget-deficit-military-spending-sanctions/ Russia’s economy is in much worse shape than it looks, potentially forcing Vladimir Putin to stop waging war on Ukraine as early as next year, according to economist and author Anders Åslund. In a recent op-ed on Project Syndicate, he cited financial, technological, and demographic headwinds weighing on a Russian economy that’s headed for “near stagnation,” and estimated Western sanctions are reducing GDP by 2%-3% each year. “Moreover, the situation will get only worse for Putin, perhaps even impeding his campaign of aggression against Ukraine,” Åslund added. He noted that Ukraine’s spy service claimed last month to have Russian documents that indicate the Kremlin wants to conclude the war as soon as late-2025 amid tightening economic and financial pressure. “Whether true or not, this scenario would make sense,” Åslund, who wrote Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy, said. For one thing, Western sanctions have stoked “hidden inflation” in Russia while preventing it from raising funds on global financial markets and instead forcing it to rely on reserves. Amid the constraints, the Kremlin has limited its annual budget deficit to 2% of GDP, or about $40 billion. But given that liquid reserves in Russia’s national wealth fund had been whittled down to $55 billion as of March, state reserves should run out next year, he said. Meanwhile, Russia’s technological backwardness has been aggravated by the brain drain of the best and the brightest fleeing the country after the invasion as well as Western sanctions, Soviet-like repression, and Putin’s “kleptocracy,” Åslund added. Elsewhere in Russia’s economy, weapons exports have collapsed as demand from the country’s own troops prevent sales to foreign countries. Putin’s war machine also has a manpower problem as low unemployment, the mass exodus of Russians, and mounting war casualties limit the ability to raise more troops. With financial reserves running dry, Russia will have trouble making the budget math work. Åslund estimated that Russia will spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and the Kremlin is running out places to cut from—other than war expenses—as the invasion nears its three-year anniversary. “Ukraine could win the war if it had an additional $50 billion per year, as well as a green light to bomb military targets inside Russia,” he said. Others have also issued dire assessments of Russia’s economy. The Bank of Finland’s institute for emerging economies published a report Thursday that said growth will slow to just 1% in 2025 and 2026 from 3.5% this year. To maintain the current rate of growth, Russia would have to make major gains in productivity, but that’s highly unlikely because of all the investment going into the military and the war, the report said. Labor shortages and the inability to buy spare parts or new equipment from the West will also hinder economic growth, it added. “Given Russia’s myopic policy shifts, conditions in its wartime economy could change suddenly,” the report said.