Let's see what the Russian Central Bank has to say. Russia's 'overheating' economy will face a sharp slowdown next year as labor and sanctions crush momentum, central bank says https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...rker-shortage-inflation-sanctions-west-2024-9 Russia's economic expansion will drop off sharply after this year, the country's central bank said. GDP could fall from as much as 4% to as low as 0.5% in 2025, the report said. Labor shortages and Western restrictions are crippling economic momentum, the bank cited. Russian wartime growth will stagger next year as labor and sanction issues wear down the "overheating" economy, the country's central bank said in its annual report. Although GDP is projected to expand as much as 4% this year, state and consumer demand have by now outstripped supply, the Central Bank of Russia said. The report, cited by the Financial Times, expects growth to reach the 0.5%-to-1.5% zone in 2025, and be 1% to 2% in 2026. "Available production capacity is depleted," bank deputy governor Alexei Zabotkin told reporters last week. "The pace of expansion is held back by sanctions barriers and by physical limitations on the output of the means of production. The economy needs additional labor for this as well." He added that labor shortages had "significantly worsened." This dilemma first cropped up after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, committing part of its workforce to the front lines. Last year's forced mobilization order made the deficit more severe, as up to a million Russians fled the country. By the end of 2023, the country was estimated to lack close to 5 million workers. That's put pressure on Russian businesses to increase wages, in a big to source new workers. According to FT, the nominal wage jumped 19.2% in the first quarter of 2024, slowing slightly in the second quarter. Labor shortfalls have hit manufacturing, trade and agriculture the hardest, according to the report. Rising wages and aggressive government spending are a recipe for higher inflation, which the central bank expects to reach 6.5% to 7% by the end of this year. The bank outlined that interest rates — now standing at 18% — are unlikely to move away from the double digits. The report said inflation is projected to fall between 4% and 4.5% in 2025, then remain at the 4% level after that. The West has offered no relief to Russia, as sanctions from the US and its allies have only tightened in recent months. In late August, Washington announced another sweeping sanctions package targeting foreign entities that still support Russia's war production. Production capacity and labor supply is "nearly fully used," the report said. According to FT, the central bank also listed other economic scenarios in its report, such as an economic "deglobalization" that occurs alongside higher interest rates. In this situation, Russia would contract as much as 3% to 4% next year, and face a crisis as difficult as the 2008 period. The central bank's outlook appears in line with Western forecast, as the International Monetary Fund similarly anticipates momentum to fade in 2025. Meanwhile, individual analysts have warned that a severe recession is looming over Moscow, which could hit as soon as next year.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural...-Screw-Again-On-Russias-Vital-LNG-Sector.html The U.S. Tightens The Screw Again On Russia’s Vital LNG Sector By Simon Watkins - Sep 03, 2024, 5:00 PM CDT The US Treasury and State departments ramped up the pressure on Russia’s critical LNG sector again last week. One of the principal reasons for the focus of the U.S. and its allies on effectively destroying Russia’s ship-borne LNG sector is that it now acts as a key source of revenue for the Kremlin. Another major concern for the U.S. and its key allies is that it does not want Russia to regain the level of political and economic influence that it had over the 27 countries that constitute the European Union. The US Treasury and State departments ramped up the pressure on Russia’s critical liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector again last week, the day before the 24 August commemoration day of Ukraine’s Declaration of Independence in 1991. A slew of new sanctions were introduced targeting individuals, companies, projects, and trading and delivery mechanisms that are vital to Moscow’s LNG operations. This aligns with comments earlier this year from the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources Geoffrey Pyatt that: “We’re going to keep tightening the screws [on Russia’s major LNG sector projects such as Arctic LNG 2]. We’re going to continue to designate a broad range of entities involved in development of other key energy projects, future energy projects as well, and associated infrastructure including the Vostok Oil Project, the Ust Luga LNG Terminal, and the Yakutia Gas Project.” One of the principal reasons for this focus of the U.S. and its allies on effectively destroying Russia’s ship-borne LNG sector is that it now acts as a key source of revenue for the funding of the war against Ukraine, following the decline in pipelined gas and oil exports into Europe after Russia’s invasion of the country on 24 February 2022. Russia earned nearly US$100 billion from natural gas and oil exports during the first 100 days of the war in Ukraine before U.S.-led sanctions against Russia began to take effect, as analysed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Overall, revenues from the higher post-invasion oil and gas prices were much greater than the cost for Russia to continue to fight the war. However, as prices started to weaken further as sanctions increasingly hit Russia, its finances and ability to secure an outright military victory have been significantly reduced. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that Russia’s share of internationally traded natural gas will fall from to about 15 percent by 2030, from around 30 percent in the year before it invaded Ukraine. Its revenue from natural gas sales is projected to drop to less than US$40 billion by 2030, from around US$100 billion in 2021. So desperate has the situation become for President Vladimir Putin that he risked arrest in December to visit Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, and the UAE’s Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, to plead for greater cuts in OPEC oil production in order to push oil prices up to boost Russia’s revenues from the sector. With natural gas and oil income still dramatically reduced, Russia has been increasingly relying on a rise in income from its LNG sector instead to fund its petro-war economy. On 22 November last year, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated Russia intended its LNG market share to rise to 20 percent (at least 100 million tons per year) by 2030, from the current 8 percent (around 33 tons in 2023). Another major concern for the U.S. and its key allies is that it does not want Russia to regain the level of political and economic influence that it had over the 27 countries that constitute the European Union (E.U.). As at the end of 2021, according to IEA figures, the European Union imported an average of over 380 million cubic metres (mcm) per day of gas by pipeline from Russia, or around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) for the year as a whole. As well as that, around 15 bcm was delivered in LNG form. The total 155 bcm imported from Russia accounted for around 45 percent of the E.U.’s gas imports in 2021 and almost 40 percent of its total gas consumption. Germany – the de facto leader of the E.U. - was reliant on Russian gas for around 30-40 percent its own commercial and domestic gas needs, depending on the time of year. The country was also at that time the recipient of the highest level of crude oil imports from Russia of any E.U. country – an average of 555,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 30 percent of its total oil imports at the end of 2021/beginning of 2022 - according to the IEA. The U.S. and U.K. believed that it was because of this reliance on cheap and abundant gas and oil from Russia that Germany and the E.U. had refrained from punishing Russia through serious sanctions for its invasion of Georgia in 2008 and its invasion and annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014, as also detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. The U.S. does not want Russia to be in any position to rebuild such an influence over these key member countries of the NATO security alliance or its equivalents in Asia. This ties into the other main reason why the U.S. continues to target Russia’s LNG business so aggressively, which is the increasing geopolitical importance of the energy source in the relationship between Russia and China. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, LNG has become the most important swing energy source in an increasingly insecure world. Unlike oil or gas that is transported through pipelines, LNG does not require years and vast expense in building out a complex infrastructure before it is ready to transport anywhere. Once gas has been converted to LNG, it can be shipped and moved anywhere within a matter of days and bought reliably either through short- or long-term contracts or immediately in the spot market. In the event of another major global conflict breaking out – as many expect to happen in and around Taiwan within the next three years – the importance of LNG will only increase further, as existing oil and gas land transportation routes from Russia to China are unlikely to remain functional for long. Beijing has been aware of the new status of LNG even before Russia invaded Ukraine, having pre-emptively signed multiple long-term contracts for supply of the gas with several countries beforehand, most notably the world’s top exporter of LNG, Qatar, as also analysed in my latest book. Russian President Vladimir Putin must also have understood how important LNG would become in the world’s energy mix from before he ordered the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Given the enormous emphasis he placed on Russia pushing ahead with its LNG projects before either of those actions, it may well be that he was expecting much more significant sanctions to be placed on his country’s pipelined gas and oil flows at that point by the U.S. and Europe than actually happened. Such was Putin’s determination to move ahead with Russia’s Arctic LNG projects that various heavyweight Russian entities were inveigled around the time the U.S. imposed its very limited 2014 sanctions to finance key parts of them. The Russian Direct Investment Fund, for example, established a joint investment fund with the state-run Japan Bank for International Cooperation with each contributing half of a total of about JPY100 billion (then US$890 million) to it. The Russian government itself bankrolled the Arctic LNG 1 run by Novatek from the beginning with money from the state budget. It then supported it again when sanctions were introduced by selling bonds in Yamal LNG (the first part of the Arctic LNG programs), and then by providing another RUB150 billion of backstop funding from the National Welfare Fund. Russia’s Arctic LNG sector is potentially huge, comprising over 35,700 billion cubic metres of natural gas and over 2,300 million metric tons of oil and condensate, the majority of which are in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, lying on the south side of the Kara Sea. It could also offer an extremely quick transport route to China, as the Arctic ice continues to melt, and this is the spur for Russia’s increasingly expeditious build-out of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), as detailed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Everything connected to this Russian plan is also now being rigorously targeted under the U.S.’s focus on the country’s LNG sector, as evidenced in these latest sanctions from Washington.
US: Sanctions Russia. Russia: No problem, I'll just run everything through China. Chinese banks: Uh, actually. Russian banks say they've run out of yuan as Chinese firms pull away from the nation https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...e-firms-pull-away-from-the-nation/ar-AA1q7qlk Russia's yuan reserves are nearly depleted due to Chinese banks' fear of US sanctions. Lenders have urged Russia's central bank to address the yuan deficit, causing the ruble to drop. China's hesitance stems from US threats of secondary sanctions over Russia's Ukraine war financing. Russia's banks have practically emptied their stash of yuan, largely because Chinese financial firms are spooked from doing business with the nation. Lenders have urged Russia's central bank to address a yuan liquidity shortage in the nation, with insiders saying that access to the Chinese currency was running dry, Reuters reported. Russia's ruble dropped nearly 5% against the yuan earlier this week, Reuters noted. The drop came shortly after Russia's finance ministry suggested the Central Bank of Russia would shrink its daily yuan sales, with central bankers selling just $200 million a day, down from the $7.3 billion sold daily in the last month. Sberbank, a large state-owned lender in Russia, told Reuters it could no longer lend in yuan because it had "nothing to cover" the trade. VTB, the second-largest lender in Russia, said it urged the central bank to counter the yuan liquidity shortage through currency drops, and added that exporters to the nation should sell yuan to Russia as well. Chinese banks are more hesitant to trade currency in Russia after the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Russia while it continues its war against Ukraine. Payment scuffles between Russian companies and Chinese banks have escalated in recent weeks, with nearly all Chinese banks stopping transactions with Russia. Some banks have even returned payments for goods that had already been sent to Russia, out of fear of being targeted by sanctions, a Russian media outlet reported. Russian businesses, meanwhile, have been locked out of billions in recent months, mainly due to payment issues at foreign banks, according to data from Russia's central bank. The payment difficulties are a problem for Russia's economy, which has grown more isolated from global markets and consequently more reliant on China's yuan after being targeted by Western sanctions in 2022. Russia's central bank said the yuan had become its main exchange currency this year, accounting for more than half of all currency trades in the nation.
Russia China trade HUGE China will NEVER enforce any USA sanctions agaInst Russia If some individual actors choose to enforce sanctions they will be dealt by Chinese government. Everything else is wishful thinking From September 1 China sanctioned Ukraine and doesn't sell them drone parts and Russia gets them freely
LOL. Good luck with your fantasies Russian banks have to pay a high price to get Yuan because nearly all Chinese banks will not do business with them. This is a complete disaster for the Russian banking sector. U.S secondary sanctions are impacting trade with Russia in 2024. Russia is only a minor trading partner from a Chinese perspective; trade with western nations is much more important to China. Russian Banks Scramble for Yuan as Liquidity Shortfall Doubles New US sanctions spooked Chinese banks, deepening the shortage https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...amble-for-yuan-as-liquidity-shortfall-doubles Over 98% of Chinese banks do not accept direct payments from Russia https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/12/7470037/ Russia payment hurdles with China partners intensified in August Russia's imports from China fell by more than 1% to $62 billion in January-July 2024 due to payment problems, according to China's official statistics. https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...rs-intensified-august-sources-say-2024-08-30/ https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/trade-between-russia-and-china-factors-and-limits/ https://www.seair.co.in/blog/top-trading-partners-of-china.aspx
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-En...-Partnership-for-New-Nuclear-Power-Plant.html Armenia Seeks U.S. Partnership for New Nuclear Power Plant By Eurasianet - Sep 06, 2024, 4:00 PM CDT Armenia is considering building a new nuclear power plant with U.S. assistance as an alternative to upgrading its aging Metsamor plant with Russia. The move is part of Armenia's broader effort to reduce its dependence on Russia and align itself more closely with the West. A potential U.S.-Armenia nuclear deal would involve the transfer of nuclear technology and knowledge, contingent on Armenia's adherence to nonproliferation principles. The future of nuclear energy in Armenia is fast emerging as another flashpoint of acrimony between Armenian and Russian leaders. The country’s aging Metsamor nuclear power plant, the first unit of which went online in 1976, is nearing the end of its lifespan. Armenia in late 2023 struck a deal with Russia to upgrade the facility and extend its operations until 2036. But with bilateral relations now experiencing a quick freeze, underscored by Armenia’s efforts to ice Russia out of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, officials in Yerevan are openly exploring other nuclear-energy options. Metsamor’s two units generate about 40 percent of Armenia’s electricity needs, and the facility already received one upgrade in 2016 that extended its lifespan a decade. For much of the 21st century, it has been plagued by safety concerns. In late August, for example, the plant experienced a lightning strike forcing it to disconnect for several days from the country’s electricity grid as a safety precaution. Consistent with Armenia’s continuing geopolitical pivot away from Russia toward the West, senior Armenians government officials began signaling in July that they were in discussions with US officials to build a new plant. The first step in this process is to put in place what officials describe as a “legal framework.” The transfer of nuclear technology is heavily regulated under US law, and certain safeguards must be in place before any firm commitments are made and construction breaks ground. “[We] cannot move forward without this legal framework,” said Armen Grigoryan, secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, in July. “At this point, I can say that the ball is in the United States’ court.” In August, a State Department official confirmed to Armenian news agency CivilNet that the US government was considering Armenia’s request to sign a bilateral nuclear compact, known as a 123 Agreement, which would allow the United States to transfer nuclear technology to Armenia, as well as share research and technical knowledge. The deal would be contingent on Armenia’s adherence to specified nonproliferation principles. The State Department did not respond to a Eurasianet request in time for publication seeking to clarify the timeline of its review of Armenia’s application. Yerevan at this point has stopped short of confirming that a US firm will get the contract to build a new nuclear facility. Officials have hinted that they are keeping the door open for competitive bids from entities headquartered in China, France and even Russia. So far, Russian officials haven’t specifically commented on the potential US involvement in the construction of a new Armenian nuclear facility. For Armenia, the new power plant represents an opportunity to both achieve a symbolic split from Russia and reduce very real concerns of energy dependence on the Kremlin. Armenia presently imports fossil fuels from Russia to meet 80 percent of its energy needs, according to the International Energy Agency. “Nuclear energy stands as a cornerstone in our strategy, ensuring both the energy security of our nation and the mitigation of climate change,” said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels in March.
Despite, all the propaganda, Russian economy is doing fine. That is after 20,000 sanctions the US has imposed on it and rubber stamped by NATO countries. Russia actually, has balanced books and spends within its means. It has maybe, $600 billion in reserves deposited abroad in the US and Europe which NATO is trying to seize. The US only lives thru deficit spending and eventually, it will implode on its own. BRICs is emerging as a very strong economic power. Turkey has just applied to join BRICs. Serbia is on the wings and Europe has threatened Serbia because they perceive it as becoming even closer to Russia. Sanctions is nothing more than economic war and other nations sanctioned can retaliate in turn. China which has been sanctioned by the US to try and contain it, has now banned the export of antimony to the US. Antimony is used to make all those high tech weapons. US inviting other countries we have differences with to sanction the US, to hurt it in multiple ways but, the warmongers are in control.
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Russia-Is-Losing-Its-Grip-on-Central-Asia.html Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Central Asia