The Demolition of Russia's Economy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Mar 4, 2022.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    (Crack Pipe Meme) goes here.
     
    #1421     May 16, 2023
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    The exhibited technology is laughable and they are unable to deliver. This is your upcoming Russian military hardware trade show. Will anyone even show up? Maybe some third world dictators who need to fight native tribes armed with spears and wearing loincloths.

    Milex: Russia showcases military wares but is unable to deliver
    MILEX 2023 hosts an arms fair exhibition for Rostec, even as Russia fails to fulfil existing arms deals, following its invasion of Ukraine.
    https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/milex-russia-military-wares-unable-to-fulfil-delivery/
     
    #1422     May 16, 2023
    Atlantic likes this.
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Sanctions against Russians twice as effective since Ukraine invasion, finds study
    https://phys.org/news/2023-05-sanctions-russians-effective-ukraine-invasion.html

    Sanctions targeting Russian government officials have been significantly more effective at barring those individuals from the global financial system since the invasion of Ukraine
    , according to a study from researchers at The University of Texas at Austin.

    In an experiment comparing the effectiveness of targeted sanctions before and after the invasion, UT Austin faculty members Michael G. Findley and Daniel L. Nielson and their collaborator, J.C. Sharman at the University of Cambridge, posed as potential customers—including Russian officials first sanctioned in 2012—seeking access to the global financial system. The results of the experiment's two phases suggest the 2012 sanctions only became effective a decade later, after the outbreak of war and the dramatic increase in international scrutiny.

    In about 5,000 emails to business law firms and other corporate service providers, the research team sought to set up shell companies and international business bank accounts. In half the emails sent, they assumed the names of individuals targeted in Russian sanctions laws. In the other emails, they posed as customers from low-corruption countries such as Australia and New Zealand.

    In response to emails sent between November 2019 and December 2020, before the invasion of Ukraine, the researchers found that names explicitly barred by Russian sanctions laws still had more or less the same access to those global financial services as people not listed. But in the second phase of the study, conducted in May 2022, a few months after the invasion began, it became much more difficult for sanctioned individuals to access financial services. In 2020, it took an average of 14 email inquiries for a sanctioned Russian official to acquire an anonymous shell company; by the middle of 2022, that average had doubled.

    "These findings suggest that war, not law, proved important in sanctions enforcement," said Nielson, a professor in UT Austin's Department of Government. "This is a critical question, since economic sanctions are the main nonviolent means of coercive diplomacy in today's world. And, of course, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this is a pretty burning question."

    But the researchers are careful to note that more effective sanctions still are not perfect. "Even though it's much more difficult for sanctioned individuals to get access to the global financial system, we find it striking that they still have access," Nielson said. "Because emails are cheap to send, the costs to Russians seeking to evade sanctions do not seem to be extreme, even after the Russian invasion."

    Financial sanctions have become an essential part of any country's statecraft and a key tool in the West's response to Russian aggression. But previous studies of sanctions' efficacy have focused primarily on sanctions that affect governments directly, the researchers write, rather than sanctions that target individuals.

    "Before this research, there was no rigorous experimental evidence about the effectiveness of sanctions on individuals, or 'smart sanctions,' such as those naming the Russians closely associated with the government's invasion of Ukraine," Nielson said. "Our initial results led us to conclude that there was little evidence that smart sanctions are effective in normal circumstances. However, the war appeared to significantly increase scrutiny of Russian individuals and made it more difficult for them to access international financial services."

    The team's investigation initially grew out of their work auditing compliance with global financial transparency standards. Testing the extent to which financial middlemen, such as business law firms and other corporate service providers, complied with Russian sanctions was the last piece of their initial audit. That research, which became the first half of their new study, concluded in November 2020.

    "At that point, we detected no meaningful difference in access to the global financial system for Russian names on a sanctions list compared to innocuous customers," Nielson said. "After Russia invaded Ukraine, we saw an opportunity to check if anything had changed. And it has, quite dramatically."
     
    #1423     May 17, 2023
  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    So basically Russia is selling oil at increasing discounts at prices well below market, but somehow they beleive they will make up the revenue in volume -- all the while all Russia is seeing is lower and lower oil revenue. Putin believes this is good.

    Putin clashes with own finance minister over damage done to Russian economy by oil sanctions
    Putin appears to downplay Anton Siluanov’s concerns by saying the situation is ‘absolutely stable’
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-oil-revenue-sanctions-putin-b2341221.html
     
    #1424     May 18, 2023
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Russia admits there are 'problems' with energy revenues plunging over 50% in the first quarter of 2023 — and blamed them on 'all these discounts': report
    https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/worl...hem-on-all-these-discounts-report/ar-AA1blWc5
     
    #1425     May 18, 2023
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    U.S. takes a victory lap on Russian oil price cap
    https://www.axios.com/2023/05/19/us-takes-a-victory-lap-on-russian-oil-price-cap

    russia-oil-revenue.jpg

    The G7 price cap on Russian crude oil seems to be working, and the Treasury is making sure you know it.

    Why it matters: Russia's oil exports generate money to pay for the government's war on Ukraine.
    • Soon after the invasion, global oil prices soared, basically giving Russia a financial windfall from the instability its attacks caused in oil markets.
    The background: Ukraine's allies needed to find a way to curtail the flow of oil money Russia was collecting. But at the same time, they needed to ensure Russia kept producing oil.
    • Without crude from Russia — the world's third biggest producer — the global economy would face a major energy and inflation crisis.
    • In December, the G7 group of advanced economies, along with allies, agreed to a never-before-attempted plan to impose a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude oil.
    The latest: In a report issued yesterday, the Treasury Department — which led the push for the buyers' cartel aimed at Russian crude — said that the program appears to be working.
    • "Following the implementation of the price cap policy, Russia’s oil revenues have fallen substantially compared to both pre-war levels and the elevated level at the onset of the war," the Treasury said in its report.
    • "Despite selling a consistent volume of oil, Russia makes far less revenue on each barrel because its oil now trades at a significant discount relative to Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price," the report said.
    Yes, but: The program won't bankrupt Russia or make it impossible for the Kremlin to prosecute the war. Russia is still collecting billions each month in revenue from oil and gas exports.

    The bottom line: Still, the discount on Russian crude oil is making the financial costs of the war harder for Russian society to manage, something even Russia's finance minister has recently admitted.
     
    #1426     May 19, 2023
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1427     May 19, 2023
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1428     May 22, 2023
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    The Russians are begging again as their economy collapses further...

    Russia pleads with India for help avoiding financial black list, warning oil and weapons deals are at risk, report says
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-pleads-india-help-avoiding-223121729.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
    • Russia could become black listed by the Financial Action Task Force in June.
    • To avoid this, Moscow is pressuring India to help thwart the blacklisting effort, Bloomberg reported.
    • Russia has told India that key energy and weapons deals would be at risk.
    Russia is asking for India's support to avoid getting on a black list that would further isolate Moscow from global finance, Bloomberg reported.

    The pressure comes as the Financial Action Task Force — an intergovernmental group focused on combating money laundering and terrorist financing — prepares for a June meeting, during which members could implement restrictions on Russia.

    Though its invasion of Ukraine had already made Russia the world's most heavily sanctioned country, an FATF blacklisting would put Moscow in the same category as North Korea, Iran, and Myanmar.

    If Russia is added to the black list, FATF members, banks, investment firms, and payment-processors must perform additional due diligence and could even enact countermeasures, according to Bloomberg.

    Because Russia was suspended from FATF in February, it's urging other countries like India to help thwart the blacklisting effort.

    The Kremlin has warned India that defense, energy, and transportation deals between the two countries would be at risk under the designation.

    They include weapons exports, cooperation between oil firms Rosneft and Nayara Energy Limited, and the development of a railway corridor. Russia is India's top arm supplier and has emerged as a major oil supplier in the last year.

    Russia has also said that even being added on the FATF's "gray list" — a less severe measure — would still threaten deals.

    Moscow believes that India has "special credibility" within the FATF that should be used, but has also turned to other governments for similar support, sources told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Ukraine has championed the black listing, but is not a member itself.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
     
    #1429     May 24, 2023
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1430     May 25, 2023