The Demolition of Russia's Economy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Mar 4, 2022.

  1. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1171     Dec 31, 2022
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    8 million Russians are forbidden to leave Russia
    • The number of debtors restricted in their right to leave Russia almost doubled
    • The number of Russians who were restricted from leaving the country due to debts amounted to eight million
    MOSCOW, January 1 - RIA Novosti. The number of Russians who, as of December 1, were restricted from leaving Russia due to debts, amounted to eight million, over the same period last year there were 4.6 million, RIA Novosti was told in the press service of the FSSP of Russia.

    "Currently, within eight million enforcement proceedings, there are rulings on temporary restriction of debtors' right to leave the Russian Federation. In the same period of 2021, within 4.6 million enforcement proceedings, there were rulings on temporary restriction of debtors on the right to leave the Russian Federation," - commented in the department.
     
    #1172     Jan 1, 2023
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1173     Jan 3, 2023
  4. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1174     Jan 4, 2023
    virtusa likes this.
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1176     Jan 10, 2023
    Atlantic likes this.
  7. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    G7 to Russia: we won't be paying more than $60 per barrel of Russian oil.
    Russia: no oil for you then, we'll be only selling to our friends from now on.
    Russia's "friends": how does $38 sound?


    Vladimir Putin’s budget faces ‘catastrophe’ after Western price cap spells doom for Russian oil exports
    https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/ukrainians-patriot-missiles-fort-sill/index.html

    The West's price cap on Russian crude oil could have a catastrophic effect on Vladimir Putin’s finances and force the pariah state into imposing austerity measures this year.

    The price of the “Urals” benchmark grade of crude oil exported from Russia has been falling steadily since the cap went into effect on Dec. 5. At that level, production can continue, but at a level much closer to extraction costs, thereby greatly diminishing Russian profits.

    “The price on Urals crude is down sharply versus Brent since the start of the G7 cap,” wrote Robin Brooks, chief economist of the international finance industry lobby group IIF. “That’s good, as Putin gets less cash to fight his war.”

    Last year, the average price for Russia’s “Urals” benchmark grade was $76.09 per barrel, the country's finance ministry said last week.

    The price plummeted in December, however. In the first month of the cap, it fell to an average of just $50.47 per barrel, down nearly a third from the comparable period a year earlier.

    Worse for Moscow, Urals crude recently traded at $38—below the $40 threshold that many believe to be Russia’s production cost.


    “The Ministry of Finance confirmed that everything with regard to Urals prices is not just bad, but very bad,” Cetrocredit Bank economist Yevgeny Suvorov told the Moscow Times. “$40 per barrel can be a real catastrophe for the budget and economy... If it becomes clear that $45–$50 is a new normal, the finance ministry will have to switch to an austerity regime this year.”

    European dilemmas
    One of the dilemmas Europe has faced is how to end its dependency on Russian imports that fund Putin’s war effort at a time when the invasion itself has driven up global energy prices and filled the Kremlin’s coffers.

    An oil embargo effectively imposed by the EU did not help, since it is believed Europe imported crude from ships flown under neutral third-country flags—or even EU ones like Greece—that may have secretly blended their cargo with millions of barrels of Russian oil sold at a war premium.

    With Europe starving its economy of precious energy while Russia lined its pockets thanks to higher global prices, many critics argued the West’s economic sanctions had backfired.



    Enter the price cap reached by the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the U.K.—collectively, the G7 group of nations—as well as Australia.

    It was designed to eliminate this sanctions backfire by enabling Russia to legally export oil via tankers either operated or financed by Western alliance companies—so long as these only pay a maximum of $60 for each barrel. Importantly, the dominant shipping insurers are based in the G7 and Europe, making it extremely difficult for third countries to circumvent this measure.

    A separate price cap that applies to all refined petroleum products goes into effect on Feb. 5, some three weeks before the anniversary of Putin’s invasion. This cap is expected to impose further stress on the Russian treasury.

    “Fiscal policy will struggle in 2023,” warned Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Russia’s Alfa Bank, in the Moscow Times.

    However, not all experts concur that the price cap is the primary driver behind the sudden sharp price drop in Urals.

    Janis Kluge from the German Institute for International and Security affairs argued the the EU’s oil embargo is making it incrementally harder for Russia to find enough replacement demand for its shipments.

    “Diverting the first million barrels per day of oil away from the EU was doable," he wrote, "but diverting the second million barrels per day is much harder."

    (Article has more links to Twitter information)
     
    #1177     Jan 10, 2023
  8. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

     
    #1178     Jan 11, 2023
  9. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #1179     Jan 16, 2023
  10. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Coming up on 1 year with this thread. Russia still going. To read some of the original posts, you'd have thought Russia would be a broken up territory by now.
     
    #1180     Jan 16, 2023