Russia will be using second-grade tech for years and spending 'huge resources' to recreate what already exists, says a former top Russian finance official https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tech-decline-second-grade-sanctions-effective-vyugin-2022-9 Sanctions against Russia will hit tech goods, former finance official Oleg Vyugin told Reuters. Russia's tech industry relies on imports, so it will have to recreate those goods domestically. Russia's tech development will decline if the situation doesn't improve, said Vyugin. Russia could be in for years of decline in technology development due to sweeping sanctions over the Ukraine war, Oleg Vyugin, a former high-level finance ministry and central bank official, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday. That's because when it comes to tech, Russia relies on imports, and imports have been hit by sanctions and boycotts. As a result, the country will have to develop its own products to substitute those imports. "The world will move forward, but Russia will only use some second-grade technology and spend huge resources to recreate what there already is in the world, but can't be imported," said Vyugin, who was a deputy finance minister and deputy governor at the Bank of Russia. He retired from the Moscow Exchange this year. Vyugin also told Reuters "sanctions work," as Russia's economic growth has been impacted negatively. Vyugin's comments stand in contrast to President Vladimir Putin's positive assessments of the economy. In early September, Putin said the country's economy was coping with Western sanctions. Almost seven months into the war, Russia's economy does continue to appear resilient. The energy giant's economy has been bolstered by energy exports on the back of high prices, which were on the rise even before the war. But imports into Russia have been severely crimped, which shows up in a record high current account surplus of $70.1 billion for the second half of 2022. Current account surplus is a key gauge of trade and investment flows, and trade is a big component of the measure. Russia has tried to counter the sanctions by substituting imports with those from non-sanctioning countries or with home-grown options. But success has been limited, analysts at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, wrote in late March. "High-tech products are developed using inputs from many countries, but few of them can function without inputs from the European Union or the United States," wrote the analysts. "As a result, a single economy cannot replicate the capabilities of the global network." Semiconductor chips, aviation parts, and medical goods are among the heavily impacted imports, the Bruegel analysts noted. Russian state-owned carrier Aeroflot has already started stripping spare parts from working aircraft due to sanctions-induced supply shortages, Reuters reported in August. "If the situation doesn't change, Russia will see a gradual decline in the level of technological development," said Vyugin.
Russia cannot run a high-tech modern war when they have no access to chips or technology. Using 50 year old obsolete tech will not work out for them. Nor do they have any way of re-building in the future. Russia’s Weapons Use Old and Even Western Electronics, Report Shows War sanctions will cripple Russia’s ability to build “high-tech” arms. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a41234073/russias-weapons-use-old-electronics/ An examination of Russian weapons has revealed many rely on aging electronics now considered obsolete. Other electronics parts were sourced from countries that have slapped export sanctions on Moscow. Russia will have difficulty rebuilding its war machine, no matter how the Ukraine war ends. Some of Russia’s most high-tech equipment relies on obsolete electronics and parts it can no longer source from the rest of the world. The country’s inability to produce enough semiconductors, essential for the production of modern weapon systems, means it must use older microchips—including commercial chips imported from the rest of the world. This shortage will have serious implications for the future of the Russian military, and for Russian arms exports abroad. The New York Times reports that experts at Conflict Armament Research (CAR) examined parts from several downed Russian weapon systems. (CAR “identifies and tracks conventional weapons and ammunition in contemporary armed conflicts,” according to the organization’s website.) The parts were recovered from the 3M14 “Kalibr” ship-launched land-attack cruise missile, 9M544 300-millimeter guided rockets from the Tornado rocket launcher system, Kh-59 “Ovod” air-to-ground missiles, and Kh-101 aircraft-launched land-attack cruise missiles. Together, the four weapons cover a broad array of launch systems and a considerable amount of Russia’s land-attack weapons. All four used the same electronic components, marked SN-99, that were revealed to be satellite navigation receivers. Even more surprisingly, the SN-99 components were not manufactured in Russia and instead were sourced overseas. “Having documented the printed circuit boards inside the satellite navigation signal receiver blocks of these four missiles,” CAR explained, “they were all made of the same non-Russian components, manufactured between 2012 and 2020.” CAR did not explain exactly which country the circuit boards came from. CAR explains on its website that it has identified “a total of 144 non-Russian manufacturers of more than 650 unique component models in Russian material used in the war on Ukraine.” In addition to the four types of air-to-ground munitions, foreign electronics were found in the Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopter, drones including the Orlan-10, military radios, and electronic warfare equipment. Russia’s high-tech manufacturing sector is relatively underdeveloped compared to other major countries, meaning Moscow must import semiconductors and other electronics. Importing chips is not an unheard of tactic, but it does leave defense contractors at the mercy of international sanctions designed to starve Russia of advanced military technology. A CAR researcher explained the organization intended to ask the manufacturers how the chips ended up in Russia, whether through legitimate purchase or a shell company or similar cut-out. Countries under sanctions often set up dummy companies to buy military or dual-use military-civilian equipment abroad. Will international sanctions cripple Russia’s ability to manufacture new weapons? Historically, Russia has had a great deal of success in getting its hands on sanctioned equipment. In the 1980s, Soviet submarines inexplicably became much quieter and capable of evading detection. Western intelligence tracked this breakthrough to the sale of CNC machines, then advanced manufacturing technology, by Japan’s Toshiba and Norway’s Kongsberg to front companies operated by the KGB. These CNC machines were used to make advanced submarine propellers that reduced the noise a submarine made underway. Russia has incurred a tsunami of second-order effects stemming from its invasion of Ukraine, including broad international sanctions. It has also used a tremendous amount of rockets and missiles, all requiring technology it can’t build itself. If it can’t get them, Russia could find itself unable to defend itself, let alone conquer Ukraine. (Article has pictures and further information)
We have seen Putin the military genius in action- now we are seeing Putin the economics genius in action. Takes some time but as Kamala Harris says over and over "the passage of time is a thing" and some of the economic issues will set in more over time. Remember, the passage of time. It's a thing. Putin is just beginning to learn how it works. One of the last paragraphs in this article says some people are afraid to go into the office or show up at their work site because they are afraid they might be served with mobilization papers there. Man, you gotta believe that sucks. If you are a Russian, chances are you are severely hung over in the morning so it takes a lot of effort to show up for work. Then you get mobilization orders. Yeh. el sucko. The Russian economy will ‘die by winter’ because of the ‘catastrophic consequences’ of the military mobilization, a top Russian economist warns https://fortune.com/2022/09/26/russ...mist-vladislav-inozemtsev-putin-mobilization/
U.S. readying fresh sanctions on Russia over annexation plans https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us...-russia-over-war-ukraine-official-2022-09-28/ The United States will in coming days impose economic costs on Moscow over "sham" referendums held by Russia in occupied regions of Ukraine, the State Department said on Wednesday, as Biden administration officials look to the finance and energy sectors for future sanctions action. "We will continue to work with allies and partners to bring even more pressure on Russia and the individuals and entities that are helping support its attempted land grab," State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters. "You can expect additional measures from us in the coming days." White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said the measures would include penalties on individuals and entities both inside and outside of Russia that support the annexation. Moscow was poised on Wednesday to annex a swath of Ukraine, releasing what it called vote tallies showing support in four partially occupied provinces to join Russia, after what Kyiv and the West denounced as illegal sham referendums held at gunpoint. read more Russian-backed authorities claim to have carried out the referendums over five days on territory that makes up around 15% of Ukraine. Jean-Pierre said the United States will not recognize Russian-annexed areas across Ukraine. "Based on our information, every aspect of this referenda process was pre-staged and orchestrated by the Kremlin," she said. President Vladimir Putin could proclaim the annexation in a speech within days, just over a week since he endorsed the referendums, ordered a military mobilization at home and threatened to defend Russia with nuclear weapons if necessary. Earlier on Wednesday, the U.S. State Department's head of sanctions coordination, James O'Brien, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Washington would look to the financial sector and high technology, especially for energy exploitation, and human rights violators in future sanctions actions. "There will be more packages. We are working on more sanctions," O'Brien told the committee. "Everything is on the table," he said. The United States has imposed several tranches of sanctions targeting Moscow following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, which has reduced cities to rubble and killed or wounded thousands. Previous U.S. sanctions included decreasing Moscow's imports of cutting-edge technologies like semiconductors, sensors, and navigation that are expected to hurt Russia's long-term ability to produce fossil fuels like oil. But senators pressed O'Brien and Elizabeth Rosenberg, Treasury assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes, on U.S. sanctions on Russia's energy sector. Washington and its G7 partners have said they will put a price cap on Russian oil in place, but have held back from directly targeting major Russian energy companies over concerns about energy prices and supply. "The largest source of hard currency that Russia has now is from energy sales," Rosenberg said. "It's in energy where we must focus our attention in order to deny Russia that revenue." O'Brien warned that it was time for India, which has been buying large amounts of Russian oil, more than it did before the Feb. 24 invasion, to reconsider where it is positioning itself geopolitically. While India's purchases have been at discounts, the heavy volumes have been helping Moscow's economy. The United States and other G7 countries hope India will join a plan to place a price cap on Russian oil by December to further decrease Moscow's revenues from oil exports, which help fund its war machine. O'Brien also said Washington will continue working with China to ensure it understands U.S. sanctions and the effect they have on China's engagement with Russia. As Western nations have shunned Russia, Moscow has put emphasis on cooperation with China. The two nations have increased their trade and Russian companies have started issuing debt in yuan.
EU proposes fresh sanctions on Russia after 'sham referendums' in Ukraine https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/...s-on-russia-after-sham-referendums-in-ukraine
What Does The Yuanization Of The Russian Economy Mean For The Dollar? https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/In...-The-Russian-Economy-Mean-For-The-Dollar.html (russia on its way to become a chinese colony)