The Moon phase cycle is about 30 days and not 30 minutes and I never intended to explain the first 30 min volatility by invoking the Moon. The influence of celestial bodies on our planet is indisputable. The Sun does that all the time by influencing the Earth's magnetic field and so does the Moon (tides are just one example). You do not have to refer to astrology to see that. Astrology was just a prescientific way to express the same thing.
correlation does not imply causality. there is a (about) 30-day cycle at least in S&P futures. pyrapointers reach the same conclusion from a different reasoning for example for the S&P futures Sqrt(900) = 30 duh. i find cyclicality of a number near to 30 too but using another method not related to the planets and yes i am a Gann freak. imho this has nothing to do with anything esoteric or the moon's influence on humans emotions, it's just internal market dynamics and human habits derived from his own calendar. it's like astrology "usefulness" for trading commodities it's not that there is a causality b/w the planets and the harvests, it's the peasants belief in astrology and the seasons that move in a cycle "correlated" with the planets that cause its predictive power. it's like saying you wake up everyday at a certain time because of "astrological" reasons... manipulation??? yeah right i guess that's the french national sport, but frankly i see very little manipulation in the most liquid US markets it was amazing and exhilarating when the spike in the ES a couple of weeks ago was "self corrected" within just a few minutes. so that's what would happen to a wannabe manipulator (saddam, the french, the north korean whatever anybody from the axis of evil or the axis of weasel) first a spike caused by their frenetic evil trading and then the mother of all punishments when "the market" goes back to its "natural" levels.
"The influence of celestial bodies on our planet is indisputable." indisputable ? If you mean that when the Sun shines I feel happy yes. But I would be very surprised if the Sun or the Moon can make the market bottom at an exact price and exact time. You cite the woman menstruation: tell me if your trade influence the woman menstruation like when you buy or sell a stock ... or there is no law of offer and demand and then Market is just useless ? As for the thirty minutes sorry but the "astro traders" use the moon also on minutes scales. And scientific approach is above all chasing the details to pinpoint the flaw of a theory. And if you say it is undisputable then you just accept the theory of the moon without checking it. As for myself I am tolerant enough to say that if traders don't lie about statistics or rather if there is no statistical bias that explain the number then I would consider to go further. But it is better to fix the hypothesis without any bias so to do them before the investigation. So what I mean is you seem to have already jumped to a positive conclusion before even investigating it.
I would also be very suprised! The question is if all traders were woman, would the market move in perfect cycles?
you don't need CAUSATION to predict, just CORRELATION. you make money by predicting not by explaining. Let explanations for CNBC commentators and academics. In fact i can predict when you wake up every day just by watching the sun... our calendar, our watches, were created by observing the sun and the planets, in fact we tune our calendars and our watches with them. the market displays ciclical behavior, that's an indisputable fact. if you "tune" your cycles with a pocket calendar, an atomic clock or by watching the skies does not make any difference, they all have the same rythym by construction. and yes, Gann theory predicts turning points at exact prices AND exact times, right down to the tick and to the minute.
a yr or so ago saying the Delta Society predicted a major top in the Indices in summer 2003 oops ....
I know this is an old thread, but somehow I missed it until Seth revived it. When I first began trading, I purchased the Delta book (at $175 it was and still is the most expensive book I have ever bought). I did it for 3 reasons, 1) I knew of Wilder's more mainstream contributions to technical analysis, 2) a professor of mine was a successful trader and was (or at least claimed to be) an original Delta member, and 3) I still believed there was a Holy Grail that would bring me unlimited riches. The book itself is very compelling, especially to a newcomer to trading. I was quickly engrossed in the charts showing how the counts would repeat over and over. As a result, I started paper trading several of the instruments that had the most explaination in the book, namely the S&P, bonds, and the British Pound. The flaws of the system quickly show themselves when you trade it realtime. Just like with other "counting" methods like Elliot Wave, interpreting a correct count on the hard right edge is very difficult, at least it was for me. In hindsight, its actually very amazing how well the turns fit the count. But in realtime, I was wrong as often as I was right, especially with the whole "inversion" thing, which if there is a natural order to things is nature's way of saying "gottcha!". In the book, there is only a small section on actually trading the count, and in my opinion, there should have been more discussion about that. Also, if you want software that does the statistical analysis to help you confirm turning points or plot them ahead of time on a chart you have to pay extra, and I never did that. The other problem was that the counts seemed to work much better on the longer term charts and I have always been a daytrader. There is some discussion of a very short term count (4 day cycle) and I tried to discover the missing pieces of it that are not in the book, but Wilder doesn't discuss everything about it, instead using it as a teaser to join the Delta Society to get all the details (more money of course). Anyway the point of all that rambling is that while I think there could be people using it successfully, its not a system that defies the laws of trading and drops cash in your lap. Maybe it could be used as a bias for other methods of entry/exit with a lot of practice. There very well may be some universal order to the markets, but no one has a grasp on it, only small glimpses from time to time. Otherwise whoever had it would have all the money.
by the real author of the Delta Theory Jim Sloman its not about trading though it is well worth reading "when your troubled "
If i should trade following the moon phases do i have to move from town to town then? Trailer trading.. Or does only fullmoon over New york count?