The Day The Retail Investor Came Back...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by stonedinvestor, Apr 25, 2007.

  1. otherwise know as " The Danger Of group Think. "

    As an relatively old-timer I have come to know that when the market achieves one of it's defining moments of group think it's always wise to begin exit strategies.
    As of today the overwhelming mantra is : The US is slowing more than thought but that doesn't matter because US companies are finally making more overseas than here. The weak dollar is good because it makes our bonds cheaper when bought with foreign currency. I have to say I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet on America's significance in the free world markets... and I'm leaning to us bringing down India and China in short order. This 3% earnings barrier we were all guided towards is complete BS I'm looking for about 15% from most of my companies no one I talked to was looking for 3%. So 6%... Inline. Massive lift off inline earnings, danger of group, think no wall of worry to climb, this will shoot itself out.
    The bull market is so very old and one wonders if this is how it ends. We lumber and lumber without getting very far in expansive terms this bull market has returned far less than most, we take a long time to go from 11,000 to 12,000 and then 15 X as fast we gallup to 13,000 it does have a last gasp feeling to it in my book...
  2. Objects in people's rearview mirror appear far smaller than they really are.

    I agree, Stoney.

    I opened two long positions today - both overseas companies.

    I do not want to be in 95% of U.S. companies right now.

    The herd has just stampeded, on no proper catalyst, and this is a massive red flag.

    By the way, look at the 200 dma, RSI and MACD. Severely overbought conditions.

    I will be fading this with ultrashorts sooner rather than later.
  3. hels02


    I don't think retail investors are back, I think these are short squeezes. We'll see over the next few days which it is, but I wouldn't call a top yet.
  4. Hels they're not back asking for Harmonic Lightwave if you get my drift... but they came back yesterday with the new safety mantra about big companies with multi national exposure...

    If I had so much money that I could afford to lose some... I would certainly be going LONG the US dollar here- absolutely no one else is - those are trades if you have the guts, you then write books about...

    ByLo I feel May's Option expiration will unwind the opposite of Aprils.. End of May, June, July....
    will give us a nice set back. I hope we can grab another 500 or so DOW points now so that the fall won't take us all the way back to 0% for the year again..
  5. I thought this was really interesting: It's from someone named Dr. John Faessel? Well he is a Dr!

    The sentiment overview continues to suggest that we are not overbought or oversold. I.e. there's plenty of room to move in either direction. The McClellan Oscillator was a plus 38 yesterday after Tuesdays minus 18. It's amazing that we are still not overbought after the late March leg up. Put/call ratios are still running a touch on the high side of neutral. Yesterday's CBOE Total Exchange number was a 0.81, Tuesdays was a 1.2 – the previous few days were 0.92. 0.75 and 0.94. Smart money update: Recall that the NASDAQ Commercial traders moved to the buy side a couple of weeks ago. But the Commercial traders in the S&P 500 Futures are still short in fact last week they added 11021 contracts to the sell-side. The sell side total now stands at 16058. I still like the longside. Watch (SPX) 1490 as a short term bail out. Below the 1480 pivot - stand down.