The whole method is basically trying to identify a trend and sticking with it as long as possible and avoiding the shakeout, certainly nothing revolutionary, but for some reason this particular way has clicked with me SO FAR (fingers crossed). There are probably a dozen(or more) ways to get into same trade, but this has helped me stay with my trades. i have been trading using 1 contract. as far as stops, i don't have a fixed limit, BUT i use the indicators : stoch, macd and trend lines for my exits. On trade #2 yesterday which was entered on a macd xo three things caused me to exit: trend line break, reverse macd xo and big vol increase on red bar reversa, so while i didn't have a hard stop those three factors showed up rather quickly and i stopped out for a -3.00 pt loss. So far losses have range from 0.25 to -3.75. Also, i can definitley say on trade #1 yesterday where i entered fairly close to the low and was a reversal trade if we broke the low of the day i would have been history. I have never had a problem taking losses, so having a somewhat looser stop methodolgy has been ok. I am not sure that would work for everyone. I try and hold as long as the trend channel is in place. If that is broken I am definitely out. The macd xo from a failed rocket trade is trying to advance from the basic rocket trade setup. If you are in a rocket trade and it fails instead of just taking a loss reverse into the other direction on the macd xo. And so far writing the journal has helped me clarify to myself what i am doing (and hopefully someone else). thanks and good luck.
1. vol bo, stoch 50% bo, macd bo from 0. 10:25 macd xo w/ increasing volume stoch broke below 50% and macd broke away from 0. short @ 870.25 cover @ 870.25 0.00 day: 0.00 7 days: +22.00 had my trend channel drawn, but mkt had very poor follow thru and volume, but as long as it stayed in my channel i was in the trade. Eventually turns into a potential rocket, but there was not a good macd hist reading (-0.4 or lower). And at 11:15 there was a 5m macd xo, but price was still within my trend channel. So when my trend channel was broken i exited flat. The low volumes-lack of follow thru so far today leads me to believe that there is not much to trade. (written at 11:30) 11:50 rocket NO TRADE 11:50 s(88.89, 78.75) macd hist +0.45 but volume stinks v: 3400 Due to the low volume i did not take this trade. Looks like you could have made a point or two. 2. rocket end---->macd xo--->wash trade 12:35 macd xo and uptrend channel ends and previous rocket ends i got short at 872.75. forms a small trend channel, but douldrums set in and volume continues to stink don't like the action as mini channel is broken and i exited at 873.00. pretty much a wash trade. held for a half hour and no real movement. 1:15 also had a macd reverse xo and macd appears to be pretzeling. also stoch is hanging around 50% nuetral line. really just a big sideways channel today. 867-875 range. short @ 872.75 cover @ 873.00 -0.25 day: -0.25 7days: +21.75 3. After terror rumor and refutal of the rumor. 2:25 s(81.08, 79.28) macd hist +0.93 high 872.50. it was REAL WHIPPY at this point so i tried to define a trend channel and buy near the support of the channel and improved my price by 1.00. entered at 871.75. 3:10 mkt breaks trend channel and has a 5m macd xo and leave 75 zone. exited at 871.50. long @ 871.75 sell @ 871.50 -0.25 day: -0.50 7 days: +21.25 There was another rocket short w/ 3:55 entry but it was so late in the day i passed. Just a crappy range day and i have not done well on these types of days, but i didn't hurt myself today. an exhausting day.
1. short rocket mkt opens with a gap down and stochs and macd are giving short signals...wait 15 minutes, amrk the low and short on the break. at 10:10 there is a 5m macd xo, but i was looking for a new pt 3 so i gave it some room. Up volume started to increase and i exited at 860.25 during the 10:25 bar. short @ 859.50 cover @ 860.25 -0.75 day: -0.75 8 days: +20.50 2. long rocket 11:10 s(90.48, 79.18) macd hist +0.61 high 862.00 hod was 862.50 so i waited until that was broken and entered at 862.75. You get a high volume reversal bar, stochs leave zone and macd begins to pretzel. Stoch move to 50 area and volume dropped significantly. Exited at 861.00. Wash exit was possible if you held longer. Trade felt more like an iceberg, but out of my league. long @ 862.75 sell @ 861.00 -1.75 day: -2.50 8 days: 18.75 took a break until after 1:00. And then around 2:15 cable in three counites goes out and my day was done. overall market has been crappy for rockets last two days, today was suited more for intermediate level trends. we'll go get 'em friday.
1. 10:45 s(88.00, 85.39) macd hist +0.567 i entered during this bar @ 865.00 when the mkt broke the HOD. 11:30 had a 5m macd xo, but was still within my channel, but at 11:45 another xo and breaks channel. exit 867.25 long @ 865.00 sell @ 867.25 day: +2.25 9 days: +21.00 2. 12:05 s(0.00, 7.84) macd hist -0.57 low 864.75 short on break @ 864.50. 1:20 channel break and mcd xo. exit 864.00. short @ 864.50 cover @ 864.00 +.50 day: +2.75 9 days: +21.50 3. 2:25 s(9.09, 22.29) macd hist -.39 low 860.50 short on break @ 860.25. 2:30 and 2:40 reversal bars and 2:50 macd xo. exit at 863.00 during 2:50 bar. short @ 860.25 cover @ 863.00 -2.75 day: +0.50 9 days: +19.25 in general: could there be less volume? and these moves totally suck. while i haven't made anything, i haven't lost much either...big whup. the war has killed this market. try and find the channel and trade off the bands b/c no follow thru at all. anyways have a good weekend.
Dawg.. just to put things into perspective... In the past 9 days you just moved around $42,000+ to make just under $1,000. And this is all before commisions. At this pace you will be doing %5 a month "before" commisions.. although I would give your system more time to perform and prove itself out... I would take the initial results as mediocre at best. Given my experience.. my guess is that after trading such a system for a year... your net profits (if any) will be very close to your commisions. Maybe at best net profits will equal 2 x commisions.. --MIKE
today's open reminded me of 3-24, 3-27...gap downs that also turn into short rocket on the low of day break. 1. short rocket 9:40 s(3.23, 6.63) macd hist -2.05 short on the low of day break at 848.50. 10:00 vol spike on the eco number, 10:05 was a lower volume inside green bar. 10:15 macd xo and channel line break exited at 844.25. short @ 848.50 cover @ 844.25 +4.25 day: +4.25 10 days: 23.50 2. long rocket 10:55 s(97.14, 81.54) macd hist +0.98 enter on break. 1:15 chanel break. exit at 847.00 long @ 849.00 sell @ 847.00 -2.00 day: +2.25 10 days: 21.50 3. long rocket s(90.91, 80.96) macd hist +0.58 enter on the break at 851.00. 12:05 inside lower volume red bar after a green vol spike. 12:15 macd xo and channel break . exit at 850.25. long @ 851.00 sell @ 850.25 -0.75 day: +1.50 10 days: 20.50 4. long rocket s(91.67, 79.58) macd hist +0.52 enter on break at 854.00 . nice vol/price spike at 2:50. 2:55 insdide low volume red bar. 3:10 macd xo. 3:20 channel break. exit at 854.00. long @ 854.00 sell @ 854.00 0.00 day: +1.50 10 days: 20.50 5. rocket fail--->macd xo reversal on exit out of my failed rocket i reversed my position on my exit at 854.00. we had a failed rocket and a failed new high of day. trade turns into a short rocket. exit at end of day. was very happpy with this trade. short @ 854.00 cover @ 845.50 +8.50 day: 10.00 10 days: 30.50
Dawg.. nice day. Do you mind letting us now how many round turns you have done total in order to get those points... this way.. we can get a feel of the frequency of trades.. --MIKE
To judge a system/methodology on 10 days is pretty useless and short sighted, but let's look at the numbers for last the 10 trading days. 28 trades....commission of $134.40 (2.40 x 56) gain of $1,525 (30.50 x 50) net gain....$1,390.00 1. your comment on commission is incorrect. 2. i disagree that the results were on the mediocre side. My experience with the system/methods was very new...and the market was sucko...wed-fri of last week, nothing really happened, but i didn't dig myself a hole-which is the key. Again this is on one cotract in this crap/war environment and as i am continuing to learn and refine the methods and trades i am able to take i think the performance will continue to improve. Today is an excellent example, when i started the journal i would not have taken trade number 5, but today i feel confident taking that type of trade and the payoff was excellent with 8.50 pts. i believe that type of trade will become more frequent in the weeks ahead. bottom line after 28 trades...there is definitely a way to make money here. how much or enough to make a living? we'll all find out. of course i could blow myself up. always a possibility. just my 2 cents. i usually do a weekly wrap, but i had to travel this past weekend and couldn't do it. [edit: just read this post. not trying be snotty in my response, just don't think we should jump to conclusions after only two weeks. but i def. think there is something good here]