$3.5 trillion in money markets is. Historically a bit high don't you think. Lot's of wealth left to fuel the next lift off, markets work, give it time.
Credit crunch may take out large US bank warns former IMF chief Gary Duncan, Economics Editor and Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent The deepening toll from the global financial crisis could trigger the failure of a large US bank within months, a respected former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund claimed today, fuelling another battering for banking shares. Professor Kenneth Rogoff, a leading academic economist, said there was yet worse news to come from the worldwide credit crunch and financial turmoil, particularly in the United States, and that a high-profile casualty among American banks was highly likely. âThe US is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come,â Prof Rogoff said at a conference in Singapore. In an ominous warning, he added: âWeâre not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, weâre going to see a whopper, weâre going to see a big one â one of the big investment banks or big banks,â he said. http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article4563171.ece
I'll call that bet, and raise you KeyBanc, National City, Fifth Third, Lehman....oh, I could go on and on.
See, that's just it, though, isn't it? Who says this is the panic? The panic may occur when you do see people closing out their bank accounts and renting apartments rather than buying homes - and cutting their grocery bills by 1/3. We'll never know until after the panic as to when the panic bottomed. The panic may only bottom when you see a rocket-fuel volume selloff - the kind we had in '87. I wouldn't want to be long the eve of. Attempting to catch falling knives is such a high risk proposition. I've learned my lessons.
But, then, are you saying the government and regulatory officials are deliberately keeping information from us?!? I find that very hard to believe!
on the flipside they usually tell us its bad after they have gotten short and are close to covering,so they can buy it at a lower price,why would they change the game after all these years,spu's went to 1200 and rallied back to 1310,now pulling back to 1260 ish,and then another rally to 1320,halfway mark from 1440 to 1200 ,the time to worry is when they tell us things are good ,we are coming out of our doldrums,thats when they will be getting out or short