#5 == Ah yes. You noticed that too? I though it had to do with creating inflation to combat deflation. Looks like either the ruse worked and now its going to stabilize, or the cat's completely out of the bad and ruin is now inevitable. Only time will tell, I suppose, as it does seem that random events keep occuring more frequently these days despite the best of efforts. I have no doubt that was policy de facto, if not in fact. #8 == C'mon. Who cares about him. He's no different than a maury povich or montel williams, except his subject matter is finance. Don't confuse entertainment with information. Not that others don't however.... Louis Ruskyer was never as entertaining in the old days....
Actually as part of my trading I'd like to get some opinions on historic market trends. Specifically, I'd like comments on the likely market volatility coming this October. Historically the big market falls have been in October - so what will this one deliver?
So is anyone looking at October as the day? http://www.business24-7.ae/articles/2008/7/pages/07282008_6162ac88abfb483ea46eea2470a45f3c.aspx
I think we'll have a nice sideways market for a long time. US assets are back in favor globally and we have GDP of 1.9%. India's CB is doing a nice job of trying to reign in inflation and will probably get it to around 7%. China is also making some effort and should get a nice shot in the arm from the Olympics. Mexico and Brazil, both very large economies, also have inflation largely in check: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={7F698389-F04B-4C93-A25C-9A8C8104FFEA} While it's true that Russia was downgraded and Europe is struggling, there's little to suggest Black Anything unless maybe we have a larger than expected number of bank runs or $200 oil. Again, I'd start preparing for an oscillating market in an anemic but still living economy for quite awhile. One more thing: we are seeing some signs of sector rotation working as well. This could indicate the big boys see signs of Spring...
Btw, the GDP number was probably on the low side: our growth was likely well above the 1.9% number reported: You really need to subtract out inventories as this link points out: http://seekingalpha.com/article/88365-gdp-data-stronger-than-financial-headlines-suggest "Todayâs GDP report, despite posting lower than expected results,shows a real economy that is functioning, and itâs managing to expand despite its troubles. If we exclude the massive decline in inventories, which we believe are overstated and likely to be subject to upward revisions, we get real final sales growth at a 3.9% annual rate. As we have stated before and continue to reiterate - these numbers are not recessionary. Any aspiration of experiencing a U.S. economy engulfed by a severe recession, is plainly delusional. While the economy is not growing at its full potential, we canât argue with the fact that no matter what - it's still growing."
by the way (btw) thanks for posting this thread... this politicized pollyana is killing the American people and their dreams, while they are still standing.... WSJ article of Sat/Sun July 19, 2008 Why No Outrage Through history, outrageous financial behaviour has been met wth outrage. But today Wall Stret's damaging recklessness has been met with near-silence, from a too-tolerant populace, argues Hames Grant. the article is required reading where I work as a trader, and at a few other houses that my peers have told me about. it took up 2 full pages of WSJ print, with numerous references to recent movies of wall street speculators, and books on the subjects.... if you can go to the library and read a copy, it might bring you up to speed with the so called "inteligencia", as there is outrage, its just being saved up until they can influence policy and the US elections....since everyone in the present administration seem just too complacent.... --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------