Bylo Im listening and have been since 2006 when I started posting on how bad housing actually is. No one comprehends how significant this crisis is. As I have said before the bottom is very far away and the magnitude of this problem not even close to being fixed. Foreclosures have yet to peak. There are millions of houses in foreclosure and billions of ARMS yet to reset which means billions and billions of writedowns yet to come. Greed destroyed this economy.
I am afraid commodities will not plummet. In fact, oil will go up just to maintain a parity (inflation). Dollars worth less > need more of them to buy 1 barrel. Then, all oil derivatives (including fertilizers) will sky rocket in unison until 1 added innocent straw breaks the camel's back. Only then, comms plummet and there's a global recession. As for the logic "stop importing > Comms plummet > prices become cheap" the US has become a smaller player in regards to China's exports (20%). A lot more going on within the asian block which includes Australia. The reading would be: dollar tanks > oil skyrockets > marine transport in asia becomes an economic burden > serious global slowdown. Where is the US in this picture?
We are just starting to see the mass of credit card delinquencies. Think that is priced into the market?
Just remember.. Doctor Brenanke owns you and your lawfirm friends and the forclosures and those forcing the forclosures upon anyone. For the time being .. him and Paulson are the Law! They won't let things get out of hand and I will bet he gets a Nobel sometime after the crises has passed! He is playing the role of god right now in for the USA as a nation and doing a mighty good job I might add! Deal with each step of the crises one by one. Get the economy ... growing gdp in place and going.. then we'll deal with the inflation ! If the Economy isn't jump started we'll face stagflation which would take us to a prolonged recession of a decade or longer magnitude!
It is sad when people do not even have a basic grasp of economics. We produce twice the $$ value of manufacturing as China. We produce huge amounts of services. Including things like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, music, movies and a hell of other things. In fact, we are among the top 4 exporters in the world, with only a small difference separating the top 4 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_exp-economy-exports We import a lot because we have a lot more wealth than many other countries. But you keep yammering. Time to put you on ignore, it is not worth the time to respond to or read your pathetic posts.
Did you EVER study what happened during the Great Depression? Or what happened during most other serious global slowdowns? Commodities go off the deep end... Opinions don't matter. Markets do. Do a little study, dude. Really... If America ain't buying, then China ain't selling and oil and other commodities will lose their luster. Notice what happened the last few days in the oil market?
good thread, things we're always going to get worse before they got better. banks will still have to write down their alt a and home equity loan losses (theres a whole lot more of those than subprime loans). I bought a house, got a loan from First Horizon, closed and my 30 year fixed rate could no longer be bought in the secondary market. first horizon refuses to honor the loan I closed on, and my payment goes up by 20%. this is a true story, no exaggeration. Think I am going to pay that payment? Fuck them. Im sure there are quite a few more stories like this out there...its tough. With oil ging crazy b/c what I believe to be a supply issue and inflation, there are some tough times ahead no doubt.
The worlds greatest financial crisis is upon us, yet you three guys go out for a $400 dollar dinner at Morton's? (Just kidding with ya.) Your friends don't seem too worried or they wouldn't be contemplating quitting their jobs. Also, if some lowlevel paralegal is "getting a 20% pay raise...no arguments at all", why wouldn't your friends do the same instead of heading for the unemployment line??? I too am long term bearish on the economy, but some of what you wrote doesn't make sense.