The Darkest Storm is About to Descend - You Can't Imagine the Carnage

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, Jul 22, 2008.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Ok so their prices came from the moon back to the stratosphere, thats not deflationary?they can stay highly priced because japan is still one of the highest income countries in the world

    The bottom line is money printing there failed to create inflation(not a housing price index) while at the same time interest rates nose dived. before the 70's the last bull market in commodities was in the... 30's, they went down less then everything else, that did not prevent deflation from happening. bottom line that the 'liquidationist' mentality of letting everybody fail would repeat a great depression.
    This financial system is built on the idea that the government will step in when things turn sour, if they dont the entire chain collapses because no one is ready for it
    Soros is dead right that 'market fundamentalists' are a great danger as were communists and I dont like to agree with him
     
    #121     Jul 23, 2008
  2. P, you're 100% right on that...rental prices are steady and climbing. More and more people are forsaking home ownership for the rental prospect.

     
    #122     Jul 23, 2008
  3. Income increases reflect debased currencies as much as any other benchmark. Asset prices can't rise in an incomeless vacuum now can they? I'm sure someone is going to talk about productivity but get real. Is a municipal transit bus anymore “productive” today than 40 years ago. I think not, yet Chicago Transit Authority salaries have risen 700% in these past 4 decades.

    All one hears about is how housing is on it's ass but I DARE someone to find me house in NYC, the Bay Area, L.A. let alone beleaguered Phoenix, Vegas or Miami that isn't 300% higher in value than a decade and a half ago.

    No one with any sense disputes if the Fed's policy will effectively “save” asset prices. Of course it will. And it worked in Japan as well. The debate is only over the COST of cheap money as it effects consumer/essential products. There's a ying yang. Instead of home prices falling 60% they'll only fall 30% but instead of a T-Bone staying steady at x a pound it'll trade 2x an lb. Or make that a Kobe.....
     
    #123     Jul 23, 2008
  4. He said his business was 'FINE', which in so many terms means it's holding up well, but not blowing doors off...he is very established and has an amazing trio of restaus, so he should be ok...
    But he mentioned multiple restaurants in his area and around LA that are suffering and closing down..established ones too...
     
    #124     Jul 23, 2008
  5. My cousin bought her house in the Valley in 1992 for 650K
    at the peak
    The house across the street from her (very comprarable) just sold in foreclosure for 700K
     
    #125     Jul 23, 2008
  6. I believe it. On one hand places are packed but on the other with soaring food costs and ect. one NEEDS to be packed if they're to survive. I still wonder how so many young people are able to pay for "bottle service" and $12 Cosmos......
     
    #126     Jul 23, 2008
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Well its better to reflate and dilute everybody then to try to clean up the system and end up with a worst system than you had before.

    Hayek was advising that US authorities to let the 30's economy collapse because a bottom was around the corner and the system would be clean, who knows maybe he was right but when everyone and their mothers get unemployed and people are starving congress comes up with brillant ideas like social security and the welfare interventionalist mentality takes over the nation.
    All the sudden you are being taxed everywhere need to cough it up 50% of your income no matter where you live. You lose all your liberties and the government is controlling just about every business.
    I dont think its worst to reflate people in order to avoid that, its not like in the alternative they would benefit so much, you might help out the saver with higher rates but so what if he gets to keep only 50% after tax in order to do 'justice' to the poor

    Nobody wants that again, specially if its just to please a few folks who wanted a hike from 5.25% and major firms to fail while the worst housing bust in 70 years was going on, m1 was 0 and money velocity was going down
     
    #127     Jul 23, 2008
  8. Our house in the valley (Sherman Oaks) was purchased for 170K in 1990. We put 150K into a remodel in 1994 and sold the place for 970K in 2004. Houses in that very modest 'hood are still getting 850-900K.

     
    #128     Jul 23, 2008
  9. Impossible. It really is. I've poured over a couple of hundred sales histories in Sherman Oaks, Studio City, Encino and Woodland Hills. (only south of the blvd.) I've also checked out the Strip, WeHo, BH, Bel Air, Brentwood and the Palisades as well. Homes bought in the 89-92 break are up 300% right now.

    I'll pick one randomly.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1063686507-4223-Costello-Ave-Sherman-Oaks-CA-91423#sold_data

    http://www.trulia.com/property/1043060747-4124-Madelia-Ave-Sherman-Oaks-CA-91403#sold_data
     
    #129     Jul 23, 2008
  10. Sounds about right bro and south of Ventura Blvd the shit keeps right on pumping higher.
     
    #130     Jul 23, 2008