The current Civil War in Iraq and the United States reaction to it.

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SouthAmerica: Before the Iraq war started I wrote on my articles that the war in Iraq would turn into a mess and a civil war similar to the civil war in Yugoslavia after Tito’s death.

And I continued writing since the US invaded Iraq that the war in Iraq has turned into a Civil War.

Finally we are making some progress in that regard, and here is why: The New York Times had an article on July 24, 2005 in the “Week in Review” section – “If It’s Civil War, Do We Know It?”

The article said: “…many Iraqis are saying that the civil war has already began.”
And so on…

The news that Iraq is in the middle of a “Civil War” is finally starting to arrive in the United States – in another 2 years it might reach even Washington D.C.

I don’t know at which point the US government will grasp that the US army is in the middle of crossfire in Iraq – and there is nothing the US can do to stop the “Iraqi Civil War” from taking its course.

The big question is: Is the Civil War in Iraq going to spread to other countries in that area of the world?

What kind of governments are going to take power after the dust settles in Iraq?

How many countries will replace the Iraq that Saddam Hussein used to rule?

I wonder how long it will take for the people who are attacking with bombs Spain, Egypt, and London to also start doing the same on the United States major cities. (As a matter of fact I don’t understand why they have not attacked the United States since 9/11; they have shown time after time that they have the capability to attack at will.)

Each day that goes by the probability that they will attack a major city in the United States probably increases. It is just a matter of time, but Where and When?

What are the terrorists waiting for to attack the US once again?

I have been discussing the current Iraq’s Civil War for a long time at the “PBS” message board at:
http://discussions.pbs.org/viewforum.pbs?f=5

My name in that message board is “brazil”.

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SA

Obviously you are a Yank hater. It is obvious in all of your posts.

What do you think you are going to accomplish on this very Yank site other than piss people off?

If you have some thing constructive to say, then have at it. But to just bitch for the hell of it, go elsewhere. Make your money on other exchanges asshole.

Jay

 

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Jayford: SA
Obviously you are a Yank hater. It is obvious in all of your posts.


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SouthAmerica: Reply to Jayford

As you said on your post lets make some money. By staying in Iraq in the middle of a civil war with the potential of bombings inside the US?

Are you kidding?

Wrong answer my friend.

It is time to cut the American losses in Iraq, and bring the troops home - and also to start putting our efforts into the future of the US economy.

Iraq is a distraction from the problems that the US economy has to face as a result of globalization.

The sooner we start focusing our efforts in that direction the better will be for the future of the US economy.

The US has lost the Iraq war a long time ago - only idiots can’t see at this point that Iraq is in the middle of a civil war.

Even the American mainstream media started grasping that fact.

The US is fighting a lost cause in Iraq. It is time to recognize that fact and bring the troops home.

It does not matter that Americans want to impose democracy in Iraq - the Iraqis are answering you on a daily basis with bombs and the killing of a lot of people.

I have no idea why Americans can't grasp that Iraq is in the middle of a Civil War.

If you believe that the US should stay in Iraq until I have no idea what - then I hope you are a good short seller in Wall Street, because you will have a lot of chances to make money in the market's way down.

What will be necessary for Americans to wake up that the Iraq war is a lost cause for the United States?

Maybe the people in Wall Street does not know what a Civil War really means, since the US civil war happened such a long time ago.

Today, the article on The New York Times was a beginning and has provided some insights about why Iraq is in the middle of a civil war, but I hope they follow up with other articles in the near future - maybe Paul Krugman can write a column explaining to people the economic impact of a civil war.

It will be very unpleasant for us when the terrorists starts bombing our transportation systems, shopping malls, and so on here in the US.

That will cost billions in stock market losses - and depending on the amount of damage that the terrorists are able to inflict here in the US - the next time they attack us they can put the derivatives market over the edge and then we really be in trouble - the 1930's will look like the good times.

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I am not sure about why America does not understand or does and understand and refuses to accept that there is a civil war going on in Iraq. Anyway, this war is very lucrative for defense contractors and other large corporations who profits from war. These corporations with their deep pockets supply the contributions required to run election campaigns in the US. Thus, there is no need for the politicians to end the war. It suits their needs.

 

Southamerica, why don't you pass along your trading ideas to your governement before they default again and we have to bail them out AGAIN.

 

The idea that there is civil war in Iraq is ridiculous, as much as the hate-America crowd desperately wishes it to be so. Every indication is that virtually all of the attacks are coming from foreign jihadists or members of the former regime. Neither has any popular support, and the more innocent Iraqis they blow up, the less support they will have.

We can debate the wisdom of the US's actions, before and since the war, but the only way we will see civil war there is if the US withdraws.

 

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He sounds about as bright as the Brazilian that ran away from police on to a subway train last week in a heavy overcoat on a hot day. DUH

 

Unfortunately, what's happening now is that squads of Sunnis and Shiites are beginning to target each other's clerics. This is bad, bad news. Never mind the foreign jihadists, the Sunnis and Shiites have it in for each other. I'm amazed that they've been able to keep the peace for this long.

 

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Tradermaji: Anyway, this war is very lucrative for defense contractors and other large corporations who profits from war. These corporations with their deep pockets supply the contributions required to run election campaigns in the US. Thus, there is no need for the politicians to end the war. It suits their needs.


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SouthAmerica: I am aware that some people are making a ton of money because of defense spending. Here I am going to quote from my article published in December 2002 - “Our Future is Now”:

“Four years ago, I wrote that the US would have "a hard time to justify their large defense budget, now that the Russians were not coming." It seemed to me at the time, that the US would not be able to justify such a large defense spending based only on the possibility of an attack in the US by Saddam Hussein, Omar Quadafi, or by Fidel Castro. It became harder and harder to find a foe around the world to justify such defense expenditures.

They finally found their bogeyman: "Osama bin Laden and the 40 terrorists." Now the US government can justify the current defense budget of US$ 393 billion dollars to fight against these terrorists armed with state of the art, low-tech box cutters.

Today the US is spending more in defense than the next 12 countries combined. On March 18, 2002, Fortune magazine had an interesting article: "What Do George Bush, Arthur Levitt, Jim Baker, Dick Darman, and John Major have in common? (They all work for the Carlyle Group.) The Carlyle Group, a Washington, D. C., buyout firm, is one of the nation's largest defense contractors. It has billions of dollars at its disposal and employs a few important people. Maybe you've heard of them: former Secretary of State Jim Baker, former Secretary of Defense Frank Carlucci, and former White House budget director Dick Darman. Wait, we're just getting warmed up. William Kennard, who recently headed the FCC, and Arthur Levitt, who just left the SEC, also work for Carlyle. As do former British Prime Minister John Major and former Philippines President Fidel Ramos. Let's see, are we forgetting anyone? Oh, right, former President George Herbert Walker Bush is on the payroll too."

...If George Bush Jr. can start a war against Iraq, or any war for that matter—dad Bush and his pals can make a ton of money with the Carlyle Group.”


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SouthAmerica: In the long run we will pay a heavy price from the current irresponsibility of the US government regarding defense spending.

In a nutshell: As the United States continues spending so much money on defense spending, most other countries around the world – economic competitors of the US – are investing their money instead in infrastructure and the technologies of the future such as broadband and so on.

The world has changed since 1986 when Reagan was President of the US, and the US had a Soviet Union as a excuse for the heavy defense spending. Because of communism many of these countries including Soviet Union , its satellites, China, and so on where not economic competitors of the US economy.

Today the story is different, and these countries are all investing to challenge the US economically in the future – Today, China has already started challenging the US economy, and that is only the beginning.

For a rational person the US heavy defense spending it does not make sense when we consider the economic competition that is ahead of the US because of globalization.

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know that this defense spending will have a negative economic impact in the future of the United States.


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AAAintheBeltway: “…but the only way we will see civil war there is if the US withdraws.”


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SouthAmerica: The Iraq Civil War has started a long time ago. And there is nothing the US can do to stop it from running its course.

It does not matter how long takes for Washington to realize that their army is in the middle of a civil war in Iraq – the civil war will continue as long it takes for the Iraqis settle their old scores – there are at least four distinct groups fighting for power in Iraq – there the Kurds, the Shiites, the Sunnis, and some other type of Arab in the South of Iraq.

And everything is up for grabs in Iraq.


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Doubter: He sounds about as bright as the Brazilian that ran away from police on to a subway train last week in a heavy overcoat on a hot day.


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SouthAmerica: I don’t know why the Brazilian fellow was wearing a heavy coat on a hot day.

But the New York Times reported today that he run because he had a confrontation with an English gang several weeks earlier and that made him especially worried about being chased by anyone.

The British police had been following that fellow since he left his apartment, and he took first a bus to go to that station. If he was a terrorist why he did not blow himself up when he was in the bus full of people?

Today, the British police gave an update regarding that tragedy, and they said that the Brazilian man was shot eight times and not five times as previously reported.

I guess it is New York’s police turn to start killing tourists on vacation visiting New York City. I wonder how many tourists also will become victims of our trigger-happy society.


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PoundTheRock: Unfortunately, what's happening now is that squads of Sunnis and Shiites are beginning to target each other's clerics. This is bad, bad news. Never mind the foreign jihadists, the Sunnis and Shiites have it in for each other. I'm amazed that they've been able to keep the peace for this long.


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SouthAmerica: The current people that the US put in charge of the Iraqi government know that the Constitution that is being drafted in Iraq will do nothing to improve the situation in Iraq.

Most Iraqis don’t have the same understanding of what a Constitution means – how could they? The Iraqis have been living under some type of dictatorship for a long time.

I wrote a number of times about the US Constitution and Bill of Rights – a document that I consider a masterpiece. (I will quote below from what I wrote in the past on this subject.)

I have a better understanding than the average people regarding this subject, because my ancestors wrote the first Brazilian Constitution at the time of Brazilian independence.

And I had to do a lot of research on the subject, because my ancestor had arrived in Paris, France in January 1790 to study in a French University, and the French had just published the “Declaration of the Rights of Man and the Citizen in late 1789.

My ancestor Jose Bonifacio de Andrada e Silva (Patriarch of Brazilian Independence) used to go almost on a daily basis to see first hand the Constitutional Debate in Paris during the period 1790 – 1791 at the Constituent Assembly. He also participated of the meetings at the Jacobin Club and he became friends with the most influential thinkers of the French Revolution. He became a friend of Robespierre, of Condorcet, Abbe Sieyes, La Fayette, and the Comte de Mirabeau among others.

That is why when the Constituent Assembly framed the first Brazilian Constitution in 1823 – basically the Brazilian Constitution were written by the 3 Andrada Brothers and they used the French Constitution of 1818 as a basic model for the Brazilian Constitution.

Jose Bonifacio knew very well and had first hand experience of the entire process and everything that was covered for the French to arrive at the final Constitution - the document that they finally adopted.

Here I quote from my article published in November 2002 – “The Big American Lie.”

The lie was about the weapons of mass destruction. I wrote that article before the US invaded Iraq in March 2003. Quoting from that article:

“In my opinion the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights is one of the greatest documents ever written. These documents are a masterpiece. These documents embodied the soul of the American nation. It is what sets the United States apart from the other nations. I wish every American would send a copy of the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights to all the politicians in Washington D.C. to remind them of what this country is all about.

After President Bush declared war on terrorism, the US government took some drastic measures to wage such a war. On October 26, 2001 President Bush signed into law the USA Patriot Act of 2001. This law is based on the assumption that Americans are willing to give up their civil liberties in exchange for safety.

… The USA Patriot Act increased substantially the risk of doing business in the US because of the possibility of confiscation of assets and property.
I wonder what the long-term full impact of the USA Patriot Act will be on the US culture and economy—the capital flight from the US economy, the impact on immigrants and their families who are living in the US today, the impact on new immigration to the US, and the impact on civil liberties of the American people.

The USA Patriot Act represents a major victory of the terrorists over the United States and its free society.”


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SouthAmerica: I know that the Bill of Rights is part of the US Constitution. But a lot of people do not know that, and they think that they are separate documents - that is why I mentioned both.

I am a greater admirer of the US Constitution, and I wish the American people would have a better understanding today of why they should protect that document that served so well the US for over two hundred years – during times of major wars, depressions and so on.

I wrote the above information in November of 2002, and I think that it is a disgrace that the Bush Administration extended the “USA Patriot Act” for another ten years, without any debate, and under the panic caused by the terrorist attack in London in July of 2005.

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Sputdr: SouthAmerica, why don't you pass along your trading ideas to your government before they default again and we have to bail them out AGAIN.


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SouthAmerica: Here is your answer. I am quoting from my article published in September 2002 – “Countdown to Armageddon.”

“Disguised Bailout

Is it a coincidence that the largest bailout ever given by the International Monetary Fund almost matched the amount of $27 billion dollars that U.S. banks have as claims on Brazilian borrowers as of the end of March 2002? This IMF loan was the largest loan given to any one country to date.

The US$ 30 billion loan to Brazil was an amount higher than expected and surprised most people. Was this loan a bailout to Brazil or to the U.S. banks?

The Wall Street Journal reported on August 8, 2002 that the major American banks, which will benefit from this bailout are as follows: Citigroup with $11.4 billion total exposure in U.S. dollars to Brazil, FleetBoston with $10.4 billion, and J.P. Morgan Chase also has a substantial exposure.

On August 9, 2002 The New York Times reported that as soon as the loan package was announced the shares of Citigroup and FleetBoston jumped 6 percent each in response to the news. There is no question that this IMF loan was a bailout to the major U.S. banking houses.”


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SouthAmerica: The above quote from my article published in September 2002 gives you a partial answer.

Brazil has paid its entire debt to the IMF since then, and the IMF wanted to lend more money to Brazil in late 2004 and the Brazilian government said we don’t need it.

Since you are a trader you should know that, but in the last 18 months the Brazilian government reduced the cumulative outstanding debt of the Brazilian government from $ 250 billion dollars to the current $ 180 billion US dollars.

How did Brazil do that?

With the compliments of China and the United States deficit spending.

What do I mean?

In the last 18 months and longer China has been buying all kinds of commodities from Brazil – and the price of these commodities have been going up, in some cases such as the price of iron ore – Vale do Rio Doce Company – was able to double the selling price to China because of heavy demand.

At the same time that Brazil was able to sell a lot of commodities and at higher prices to China – the Brazilian currency appreciated by 30 percent against the US dollar.

That means that China has been paying higher and higher prices to Brazil, not only because of price increases related to demand, but also because the Chinese currency was fixed against the US dollar at the same time that the US dollar was depreciating against the Brazilian currency the Real.

To make the story short – a large portion of the Brazilian cumulative debt was in US dollar, and with all the money coming in into the Brazilian economy – the Brazilian government has been able to pay not only the IMF debt, but also other international debts and they have reduced the cumulative outstanding debt of the Brazilian government by a large amount – by over 25 percent.

Now, what happened to the US government cumulative outstanding debt during the same period?

Let me put that way – in 2004 alone the US government cumulative debt was so “humongous” that the interest alone that the US government had to pay on its current cumulative outstanding debt was over $ 300 billion US dollars.

The United States government current cumulative outstanding debt is 45 times larger than the current cumulative debt of the Brazilian government, but the US economy is only 10 times larger than the Brazilian economy.

Before an American can talk about debt to a Brazilian – The US has a long way to go to clean up its act, and put its house in order – Then you can come to Brazil and talk about bail outs and government cumulative outstanding debts.

And these figures are only for the federal government outstanding debt on top of that the states in the US also has another $ 2 trillion dollars cumulative debt.

You got your information wrong and I can assure you that Brazil is not the country that is going broke here.

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