The cure is worse than the disease

Discussion in 'Economics' started by OptionsOptionsOptions, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. monet

    monet

    If what's happening in Italy happens in the US, another move down likely.
     
    #21     Mar 19, 2020
  2. gaussian

    gaussian


    There's really nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing, wrong with buying storable food and water. It was only recently this stopped making sense because our consume-once-never-reuse culture lost its last survivors of the great depression and the dust bowl. Mormons prep as a religion. Knowing simple medical knowledge isn't a bad thing. Having guns and ammo is not a bad thing either. Self sufficiency is a virtue, not a sin.

    Be prepared. The system we live in is fragile. Don't be a lunatic.
     
    #22     Mar 19, 2020
    MKTrader likes this.
  3. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    I've already addressed this. This you pick the absolutely worst-case scenario and apply it to the U.S. based on what? I certainly hope you don't actually trade based on that kind of "critical thinking."
     
    #23     Mar 19, 2020
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    Lol, an anomaly? Wait until the full force and might of the USA comes down on the testing aspect. We're going to be the nation with the highest number of cases, which will just sink these markets further, and push us deeper into a recession, because we, in our haughtiness, have one fatal flaw...We're loaded with social media fagolas who cry when they bump their knee and demand free health care to treat the pain, and want a gold star and lollipop for suffering the ordeal.

    I mean, of all things, the number one item Americans are hoarding is TOILET PAPER! That used to be a joke America laid on the Soviet Union back in the day. Well, the joke is on us now.

    Enjoy the next 3 quarters of negative GDP.
     
    #24     Mar 19, 2020
  5. monet

    monet

    coronavirus-trajectories.png
     
    #25     Mar 19, 2020
    GregorySG9 and zghorner like this.
  6. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    I agree...a sensible amount of prepping is smart. Hiding your whole life in a cabin waiting for the apocalypse is probably a big waste unless you just love being a hermit. Not living in or near crime-ridden urban areas is another common-sense measure. I wouldn't want to be near Detroit, Philly or NYC if we have more serious shortages before things get better.
     
    #26     Mar 19, 2020
  7. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Yep, that makes my point even more. Want to also post a similar graph for the common flu this year? They're out there if you look. The number of deaths may make you pass out, though.
     
    #27     Mar 19, 2020
    smallfil likes this.
  8. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Do you remember basic math? Numerators and denominators and stuff? If we have boatloads of cases but the number of deaths remains below (or even on par or slightly higher) than the common flu, this will REALLY look like an overreaction. Those 8-10% mortality rate scare tactics go out the window.

    You're seriously conflating what you think (or want) to happen in the markets with something completely unrelated.
     
    #28     Mar 19, 2020
    ElCubano and smallfil like this.
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    Folks like you and I understand this. But what the general market world is going to see is doom and gloom when the number of "infected people " in the USA jumps from 100K to 4, 10 or even 20 million, because of expanded testing. The markets will see that as the end times, and crash even further on that. Algo programming or whatever.

    It is not about mortality rates or anything like that. It is the preliminary number of cases, which will be extrapolated out for future economic data.

    And they may be correct. 20 million people finding out they have a new flu they have not heard of and staying home for months is going to hurt us.
     
    #29     Mar 19, 2020
  10. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Yeah, we'll have to see. But if people don't see large numbers of their family, neighbors and friends dying within the next, say, 1 to 9 months (depending if this goes past the summer), at some point opinions will massively shift the other way. Then you'll have a violent rally.

    The masses are terrible at math and critical thinking, though. If you told them the Dow only fell about 38 points on Black Monday of 1929, they'd laugh it off...and not even ask what it's value was before the drop (that decline was over 12%, but the media has everyone focused on points, not percentages).
     
    #30     Mar 19, 2020