The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Jan 20, 2021.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    Alex did explain it, Securities Lending, BlockFi also said the same thing on an old video interview with Raoul Pal, Prime Brokering. Unfortunately, BlockFi wanted to be cute and ventured into the GBTC stuff

    Celsisus is not putting on trades. You keep saying that but that's not going to come true. They lend to traders (institutions who trade)

    They lend both sides, bitcoins and stable coins to institutions in return for collateral. For the big balance sheets borrowers 80% collateral, for small hedge funds over 100% collateral, so outfits like Susquehanna can sell bitcoins at Coinbase or Kraken and buy bitcoins at Binance using stable coins

    Celsius on the latest video I'm watching and on their website has 350 Institutions worldwide that they lend cryptos to, they have grown quite a bit, at that video, Alex said $3.5B in crypto deposits, they are now over $21B

    I remember when I first bought CEL at 20 cents, they were just at over $1B deposits and less than 100K users, that video was in December when CEL was ~$2.30 and he said it was the best performing investment at over 4000%

    I have no NEXO and no CEL tokens now, but I made ~800% ROI on NEXO and over 2000% ROI on CEL

    I have several 6 figures $ in stablecoins and 35 ETH, but not a single deposit on Nexo, Celsius, BlockFi or any DeFi like AAVE, so I can clearly say I have no vested interest in the space

    I agree with you that yield on any of these platforms above are not worth the existential risks of them shutting down, getting hacked, or even getting shutdown by the USG in the case of CeFi, no matter how small that probability is in my opinion

    I do have ~$75K of CAKE (fluctuates with the value of CAKE) that earns over $200/day that I compound daily for an APY of ~140%. I determined that as worth the risk since I don't have a job and that is our income. Incidentally, the amount of $ in CAKE I'm hodling and staking are all profits, already sold the original $ risk capital + profits due to my low entry and selling at CAKE over ~$30

    I thought you came around and finally understood yields on cryptos when you posted the RV video, but you're still on your world of ponzi conspiracies on these platforms and still waiting (hoping?) for them to blow up. That's the difference between me and you, I believed in their business models (NEXO and CEL) and was rewarded massively

    [EDIT: You misunderstood what the hedge fund reference that Alex was talking about. He's talking about how they have an 80/20 business model similar to hedge funds

    Celsius returns 80% of the company's operating profits to investors by way of interest payments to depositors. More than 50% of the depositors want to earn in CEL, if they are outside of the US, and that gives a higher yield on deposits but that forces them to buy CEL tokens on the market every week

    You'll know all of these if you studied Celsius and their published flywheel of funds operations]

    upload_2021-5-27_23-19-32.png
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2021
    #391     May 28, 2021
  2. Daal

    Daal

    Well, I dont believe them. If any of these institutions wanted to short BTC, until very recently, they could do it at a premium using futures at the CME. Why pay interest when you can earn interest shorting? TS Crypto lends to institutions for them to short, they also pay 0.25% for BTC deposits. Not 8%. Also when you say Celsius is not putting these trades, how do you know? Have you looked at their portfolio? No, you are trusting some person on the web, one with an incentive to lie. Rewatch the BlockFi interview on RV and see if they mention gambling all of their capital on the GBTC trade, they dont
     
    #392     May 28, 2021
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    You switched to futures and shorting. Not the same trade

    Watch the video, that's not what is being done by institutions, they're doing arb trades. They need to borrow both bitcoin and stable coins, or both Eth and stable coins, and so on

    On the video, he explained he cannot force a yield on a coin, it happens when there is market demand (from institutions) no matter how popular a coin is (i.e. Cardano, ADA)

    I don't need to believe them, I have no more NEXO or CEL tokens, but the truth is, I still do believe them. BlockFi ventured into the GBTC trade, but not NEXO or CEL

    TS cannot compete in the same level as Celsius and Nexo

    Anyway, we should stop discussing it, since we're just going back to old discussions. MrMuppet tried to explain it to you on a different thread and he has more hands on experience
     
    #393     May 28, 2021
  4. Daal

    Daal

    upload_2021-5-31_11-31-23.png
     
    #394     May 31, 2021
  5. Daal

    Daal

    #395     Jun 1, 2021
    vanzandt and themickey like this.
  6. Daal

    Daal

    I mentioned I have an account with Euro Pacific Bank, Peter Schiff's bank. Yesterday I tried to wire $8,000 from my account to Transferwise so I could receive it in Brazil for personal expenses. It was rejected today due lack of documentation. Schiff shits on crypto and then thinks the future of finance is him bending over to bureacrats so people have to provide papers to spend their own money, and he calls himself a libertarian. Lmao
    The second Binance or a major exchange offers me a crypto card, I will be done with banks. Coinbase has for US and Binance for Europe and I think Asia, no South America just yet but when it happens I will start to move to crypto all the way
     
    #396     Jun 2, 2021
    Sprout and johnarb like this.
  7. Daal

    Daal

    #397     Jun 3, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  8. Daal

    Daal

    upload_2021-6-8_18-23-8.png

    With everyone and their mothers calling for a bear market, there is a decent probability we are close to the bottom
     
    #398     Jun 8, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    I also think it's a bottom... I added a couple of btc's to the pfolio

    The response to MSTR offering shows there's a big demand from the institutions and hnw for bitcoin but are still waiting for their onramps, i.e. MS, GS, JPM

    I'm seeing another theory and was going to ask for your opinion since I think you're from Brazil

    El Salvador has opened a game theory race for the Latin American countries to support or get involved with bitcoin. Colombian President is on DM with Jack Mallers

    Here's what I read and agree on what's going on:

    El Salvador has sent a message to the other countries that their citizens will have the capability to have savings in bitcoin and quite possibly have a chance for a higher wealth status in the future. It is only a chance, not guaranteed

    The other LatAm countries do not want their citizens to revolt, protest, or even migrate to El Salvador for this bitcoin opportunity, so they are all over Twitter trying to get into bitcoin

    As a bonus, the other countries can have a chance to escape the powerful global central banks printing and debasement of fiat

    So, in the near future, maybe 2-3 months, a perfect storm of strong capital inflows may go into bitcoin, ethereum, and all of cryptos from Institutional Investors, HNW, and countries

    What do you think and how likely do you think Brazil will add bitcoin to their reserves or make it legal tender?

     
    #399     Jun 8, 2021
    vanzandt likes this.
  10. Daal

    Daal

    I'm not sure I share the exciment over countries declaring Bitcoin legal tender. Japan did that back in 2017 and I cant see what did that accomplished. Japan is the largest holder of USTs in the world, and the BOJ is not buying BTC. I also dont think Japanese corporations bought BTC in a big way after that

    In Brazil there is no political movement towards that, I doubt most other LatAm countries have it either (except El Salvador). There is a lot of senators and deputies in any country, you can probably find one that is in favor of pretty much anything like legalization of hard drugs, zero income taxes, going back to the gold standard, etc. That doesn't mean it will happen
    And even if some countries did it, would it change much? If some hodlers pay their tax in BTC and the government hodls it, it went from one hodler to another, not much has changed.
    What BTC needs is net new buying, IF some countries with large sovereign wealth funds were to it and buy BTC it would be big. In Brazil, I see no chance of that happening anytime soon, it would be too controversial and politicially dangerous to have big exchange rate fluctuations one year before a presidential election
     
    #400     Jun 8, 2021
    johnarb likes this.