So it looks like WW doesnt believe his own analysis. Also 'may suggest'? What is that? Sounds like he learned he run a newsletter from David Rosenberg. Here is my newsletter: we may be in a bear market, or we may moon. That will be $50 thanks Also, this whole thing about having 'personal problems' and having to take a break reeks of a lie. We are in an uncertain time and he hides? I know what personal problem he is having, he is stressed because he doesnt know what will happen next and his entire identity is tied to the image that he can forecast prices and he doesnt want that shattered by a mistake. He also has a business tied to that This whole on-chain thing seems like someone showing a bunch of photographs of people and saying 'according to my analysis, the people in this photo are standing still' or 'people are moving in this photo', it doesnt say what these people will do next, whether they will move, stand still, sit down or dance. To antecipate prices it doesnt do much, for that its more a matter of market psychology rather than blockchain info
lmao, oh boy.... I did not say personal problems [edit: he announced the break 2 months ago, anyway I've seen it a while back] You do you, Daal, you'll be ok, I'm not arguing with you anymore Willy Woo does not need the subscription income, it's more of a community service, imho
If you measure BTC cycles from the previous tops to the tops of that cycle, I was able to identify the following cycles At 3.34x, this would be the weakest bull cycle ever. And I would think that a weak cycle would have a smaller bear market because it deviated less from whatever fair value it should have (in other words, there was less of "bubble" or excess) 4.89x was the previous weakest bull market, that lead to a 84% drop. But in that case the price had massively deviated from stock to flow and from stock to flow FX In this case, prices simply tracked that model. So to me, a 53% drop is plenty of a bear market
Another difference between that weak cycle (2013 top) and this cycle is the Mayer ratio, which is the ratio between the current price and the 200 day moving average There, the mayer ratio topped at 8.57, this time the top tick was 2.5. That happened because the 2013 advance happened very quickly, this time it had plenty of corrections. So I dont see this coming 80% drop that some people are seeing. There was simply no powerful thrust to the upside to expect that. On a fundamental basis, I dont think it makes sense either My rule for exponential investments is: when in doubt stay long
Same blockchain and on-chain folks have different views https://cointelegraph.com/news/exch...-show-retail-traders-fueled-bitcoin-s-selloff If this guy is right, WW is wrong “Retail is selling on exchanges while institutional investors are simply not buying as much as before rather than selling.”
It might not be that easy according to other sources. https://www.ft.com/content/1aecb2db-8f61-427c-a413-3b929291c8ac
My conclusion from this CO2 BTC debate is that there is plenty of info for people on both sides to believe what they want. Bulls will hang onto the Coinshare report saying most of BTC energy is renewables. Bears will hang onto the Cambrige report or other data. Who's right? I dont know but at the end of the day, it wont matter. SPY isn't ESG compliant according to Blackrock, and plenty of people invest in that (And Rock offers funds on that). Its not something that completely falsifies the bull thesis on BTC, if it was, it would be pretty bad. But in this case, I will let confirmation biases do its thing and bulls got plenty of ammo on that
I need to be careful not to spread fud I jumped on 1 passage, but there's a lot of confirmations that are needed before we declare it's a bear market Obviously if I am 100% sure we're in a bear market, I can sell more cryptos that I still hodl I'm hoping the bull market continues soon... ------------------------------------- Through this lens we’ve entered a bear phase of the market. I’ve only seen price drop below the floor at the start of a bear market, both in 2014 and 2018. ------------------------------------- Still watching the video but I'm attaching it to this post
Look guys @johnarb @Daal there's no reason why you can't have in a portfolio spec longs that you will sell and core longs that you will hold to 0. This way you capture both short term movements and the longer possible uptrend.