The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Jan 20, 2021.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    upload_2021-1-29_14-13-25.png

    Mike Novogratz said he heard rumors weeks ago that Musk was buying BTC for TSLA's balance sheet. I thought he was full of it but now I have to reconsider. This would be pretty big
     
    #21     Jan 29, 2021
    Sprout likes this.
  2. Daal

    Daal

    #22     Jan 29, 2021
  3. Daal

    Daal

  4. Daal

    Daal

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/robinhood-caps-maximum-holdings-36-stocks-just-one-share

    "
    The problem should be apparent. Clearinghouses were safe because, if there was a problem, the circular trades netted off on settlement. But by aggressively netting off at the margin stage they are no longer as safe. In fact they are very risky. This was highlighted by the near failure of a small clearinghouse in Europe last year. Using BIS data on the penetration of central clearing, and pricing of interest rate derivatives as a proxy of initial margins, I would say that initial margin in the system needs to rise by about 6 times to make the system "safe". Looking at previous periods of rising initial margins in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, the pro-cyclicality of claringhouses should be obvious.

    Finally, cash hoarding and repo market problems could be a sign of counterparties beginning to worry about clearinghouses. If initial margins rise significantly, the only assets that will see a bid will be cash, US treasuries, JGBs, Bunds, Yen and Swiss Franc. Everything else will likely face selling pressure. If a major clearinghouse should fail due to two counterparties failing, then many centrally cleared hedges will also fail. If this happens, you will not receive the cash from your bearish hedge, as the counterparty has gone bust, and the clearinghouse needs to pay from its own capital or even get be recapitalised itself. One way to think about it is that the financial crisis only metastasized when MG failed, because at that point, everyone suddenly became un-hedged, and everyone needed to sell.

    "
    The house of cards is in trouble
     
    #24     Jan 29, 2021
  5. Daal

    Daal

    Not to beat a dead horse, but the fact that the financial system is a house of cards makes it clear that crypto can be much safer. If I own USDC (self custodied in a hardware wallet), those are US dollars cash backed 1-1 with a blockchain entry as proof of ownership.

    If I own cash in a brokerage house, I cant be sure I own anything because if the brokers start to go under, the surviving brokers are on the hook for the losers. Not to mention the chances of fails to deliver (cash or securities) of my active trading. Plus USDC you can earn 5%+ in DeFi protocols (taking smart contract risk). USD in a broker you earn 0% and you underwrite the downside of the financial system, ugh...
     
    #25     Jan 29, 2021
  6. Daal

    Daal

    upload_2021-1-31_15-44-16.png

    I have most of my ETH staked on the ETH 2.0 deposit contract and it looks like Vitalik will refund everyone in case ETH2 goes wrong. Nice to know!
    Not that this wont lead to a loss, ETH will probably be down 70%+ if ETH2 fails, but at least I get something back to sell and buy Polkadot or something
     
    #26     Jan 31, 2021
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Microstrategy Net GAAP Income in the last few years

    upload_2021-2-1_18-31-21.png

    Microstrategy Unrealized profit on Bitcoin so far: Over $1.1B dollars

    If/when Tesla joins this, I bet lots will follow. This is a pretty decent way to a dieying/stagnant business to make some profits and the execs get a nice pay day as their option packages go ITM.

    This dynamic combined with the asset managers buying might lead to a pretty big bubble on bitcoin. Not too dissimilar to Japanese companies speculating on real estate and land in the 1980's. It feels to me that it still very early in this whole bull cycle
     
    #27     Feb 1, 2021
  8. Daal

    Daal

    #28     Feb 2, 2021
  9. Sprout

    Sprout

     
    #29     Feb 2, 2021
  10. Daal

    Daal

    Musk is taking a break from twitter, probably because of all his market moving btc tweets making it more expensive for his btc traders to buy :p
     
    #30     Feb 2, 2021