On 4/10 I recommended the book to you, https://books.google.com/books/about/Complexity.html?id=JTRJxYK_tZsC&source=kp_book_description Anti-reductionism thinking, I think of it as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts way of thinking A week later, on 4/17, Bill Miller is talking about Santa Fe conference, Brian Arthur (Increasing returns) the person on "chapter 1: The Irish Idea of a Hero" as it relates to bitcoin... Did he read ET and saw my post? j/k 10-minute youtube video below:
Sorry slow at this, but association fallacy or strawman? Anyway, I put all my eggs in one basket and I watch the basket very very carefully You say that I have a better understanding of bitcoin and cryptos and I agree with you. I have spent so much time in this space. I compile the bitcoin desktop software from github source I've compiled other coins from source, gave me an advantage when Raven coin did not come up with a Windows client when it was first released and I was able to solo-mine 700,000 coins in the first 2 weeks after release using AWS VPS , I can tell you other coins that I've done similar things over many years, i.e. DIEM and DIEM v2, and other coins that have died, Chikun coin, etc And I think the reason that you see these things as mumbo-jumbo science is that you do not believe in the way cryptos work at the fundamental level I'm afraid to venture to other forums here on ET, I'll be exposed as clueless in many a subject, Dunning-Kruger effect is very much a fear of mine I feel comfortable only discussing bitcoin and cryptos as I put a lot of efforts learning the ins and outs of it. On-chain analytics is at the heart of blockchain public ledger No one can lie on the blockchain, especially not at the amounts of bitcoin needed to move this market and this is a global market, as I mentioned on my previous post, Israeli fund, Singapore Sovereign wealth fund, and New Zealand pension fund We will see footprints in the blockchain, just as the FBI and other US agencies are tracking the criminals through Chainalysis efforts I'm afraid one day you will be a bitcoin non-believer and I suspect the reason is that you're not a crypto believer of the ideologies. If that happens, I do hope that you would have profited much from being on the long side As you said, time will tell how things turn out for you and me. You and I and many cryptos players believe the bull market will end next year, and how we execute at the end whether it's a month or several months before and after will dictate how well we come out of this cycle
Not much to it, did not mean to be cryptic, it's only an emphasis on the on-chain analytics Many are trying to figure out where the top is on this bull market, perhaps using psychologically important numbers such $100K or $200K or even $400K I'm not and neither are the ones on the on-chain analytics camp. It's easier to see the bull market has ended when the coin movement we're seeing now constant demand from "institutions" are no longer taking place Big number of coins with huge $ values are being withdrawn constantly from the exchanges
I do believe crypto works at the fundamental level. I have a background in programming, I have written code in C++, Visual Basic, Delphi, Java and other languagues. What I dont believe is that this works at the market price levels. I mean, it can work, but it can also not work. I wouldn't underestimate the institutions, I bet lots are aware they are being monitored and they might use that to their advantage. That is, they will make huge transfers in order to accumulate more coins by scaring the market. Or they will do private OTC sales in order to desguise their hand. The issue with on-chain analytics is that it assumes the same things about retail (historical data) as it does for institutions. If you think about it, in the long-run, on-chain analytics has to get weaker. It is pretty much what will happen. Institutions will learn more and more about privacy and not showing their hand. Custodial services from BitGo/Coinbase will offer services to prevent their movements from being read (maybe they already do). Also, if an institution wants 'out' of BTC, all they go to do is to short a shitload of CME BTC contracts and they are out (and make 12% a year off the arb as a bonus), that will not show up on the blockchain. Or do OTC deals, or use other derivative contracts I wouldn't read 'poker for dummies' and think I can outplay the best pros. But I would read poker for dummies and think I can beat John from HR who plays poker every six months and thinks he is great
We're beating this topic to death so we'll have to agree to disagree. OTC's are negotiated between buyers and sellers, no observable coin movements from exchange wallets to private wallets, more like private wallets to private wallets, no effects on published prices But OTC willing sellers and buyers, anything in excess of one party goes to the exchanges through middlemen acting on the client's wishes Like I said, we'll have to disagree on this and revisit when the bear market is here, but talking about 10's or even 100's of billions of $ worth that will be sold in a bear market by institutions or people working for them without us seeing the coin movements on the blockchain, that I think is mumbo jumbo And to think that all institutions worldwide will be coordinating their sales to not alert the retail or the public, in a game theory scenario that is ludicrous, same as what happened in Archegos, every greedy party to themselves, like GS front running the dumping of shares ahead of Nomura, et al What we see currently on practically a daily and weekly basis are bitcoins moving out of exchange wallets [I'm not a futures guy, but short selling a billion $ worth of CME futures gets settled in cash, and holding $1B in a private wallet does not negate risk, need to sell on the exchange, but futures not my area, it just seems the way you explained it doesn't make sense, MSTR short selling $1B worth of bitcoin CME futures and not have to transfer the bitcoins to exchanges and sell them bitcoins, does not add up] and just to be clear, OTC does not have magic liquidity, that institutions wanting to sell $1B or $10B will somehow produce dumb buyers on the OTC willing to absorb that much bitcoin because every other institution is selling. Nope, the only liquidity for billions of $ worth of bitcoin is through exchanges Chainalysis is a company that's in business of analyzing on-chain data, if they are just selling junk science, they need to be shut down and thrown in jail
I'm glad that you have a programming background but it does not help you if you don't go to public blockchain and look at a bitcoin block, analyze how many transactions are in there, try to trace one transaction and the inputs, and follow those inputs and so forth There is no privacy on bitcoin, feel free to dispute it with evidence. Bitcoin is not a privacy coin like monero or zcash What you're trying to describe with institutions somehow gaining magical powers to hide or disguise their movements or their custodial services able to have a private blockchain hiding their movements, those ideas are made up by you. Feel free to dispute it and show proof Believe me, lots and lots of smart people are trying to disguise their bitcoin movements, you can refer to the people using mixers and being blocked by exchanges or criminals getting caught and are in jail The size of the bitcoins being held by institutions are massive, and they are not in the business of coin mixers, they are in the business of acquiring virgin coins at a premium or clean coins from reputable exchanges and dealers, they don't want to be in the shady world of disguised bitcoins, that's for criminals. They want reportable bitcoin holdings for their own purposes of disclosure agreements with their board members and such They want traceable coins
Great discussion here. I just want to point out that BTC is not the only game in town. While it will probably never go away, the real growth is from other layer 1's like ETH, DOT etc. Layer 2's may eventually be like software, one day provide more value add than even layer 1's.
Did Willy Woo predict the recent correction? Also, when the top comes, what's to prevent BTC from tanking 50% before Willy Woo comes out and explains what happened? I'm seeing him all over the place to explain what happened, not so much in terms of his showing that he predicted it. I dont see why is not possible for BTC to drop 50% in a few hours. US stocks have dropped 22% in a day. A 7% in a few minutes in the flash crash. If you adjust for the volatility of BTC, a giant move is possible in BTC both ways. There is plenty of BTC on exchanges and BTC futures markets avaliable for a move to happen quickly Its possible that lots of on-chain data will be coincident indicators rater than leading data. I'm not saying that this doesnt have value, I'm saying my confidence on it is 5 out of 10, while yours is 9/10 out of 10
What Willy predicts is that we're in a bull market. What his service provides is to give us confirmation that the bear market is here after it's here. In a bitcoin bull market, these mini-corrections are normal 10-30% is actually predicted by his models. The reason for this is that his proprietary on-chain analytics show the price you see on the exchanges, ~$55K fluctuates higher than the price support of where the Institutions have strong buy support, what we refer to as Rick Astley buyers Willy has a friendly bet with someone on Twitter, and the bitcoin has already been sent to an escrow, Fluffypony, who used to be the lead developer and maintainer of Monero Willy is betting that bitcoin does not go below $46,400 or somewhere in that number, you can check his twitter history, it was made on 4/13 when the price was closer for Willy to lose the bet You're worried about a 50% crash, don't be. On one of the videos, Willy discusses that his model predicts there is strong support at $53K and obviously, he buys when it fluctuates on low end of the plus 10-30% of the Rick Astley buyers and sells when it's closer to the high end using his trading capital Microstrategy and Tesla have billions on the line, and other institutions have hundreds of millions of $ on the line, we are not in a bear market