The Cryptocurrency Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Jan 20, 2021.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    First of all, as I said on previous post, thank you for the post on BlockFi. I have initiated the withdrawal process of btc from there. I'm also going to withdraw the btc's from Celsius. I never did get around to depositing on Nexo since busy with yield farming on BSC

    The rest will be TL;DR :D

    I'm a fan of the Market Wizards books (Jack Schwager)! I'm also a huge Taleb fan, I've read "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan" but haven't gotten around to reading Antifragile and Skin in the game, but I have the books

    I am crypto diversified, but hold more than 50% in btc, pushed at that level since I converted most of ETh to btc

    Bitcoin and cryptos bull market has a lot more upside to go

    It will surprise you that I am waiting for the crypto bear market to be confirmed. After going through two horrendous crypto bear winters, the pain has not left my psyche

    It will surprise you that after I've taken the btc's from BlockFi and Celsius (~4 btc's), I will be in a position where I am fully ready for the bear market. I have a small position in a defi staking on BSC (~$50k worth) but unstaking and cashing them out will take less than 30 minutes

    Cryptos trade 24/7/365 and I have nothing locked :cool:

    Real quickly since I've been a defender of Celsius, my risk exposure to original capital is negative $. Yup, all profits, since the original risk capital $ have been traded out to other cryptos and what's at risk on Celsius and Nexo are all profit$. Yes, they are sizable $, but to put into perspective, I bought CEL last year when it was 20 cents and Nexo when it was 40-50 cents.

    CEL got too big of a position started trading out when it was over $3 and continued trading to other cryptos when something caught my attention. Have not traded out of any Nexo but risk capital $ on it came from CEL, see previous statement

    I have full and unfettered visibility to my risk exposure and once I'm convinced the crypto bear market is here, wham, bam, thank you, plans are in-place, execute.

    The biggest emotional attachment to cryptos I have is with BTC, and planning to hodl 10 BTC's even when I'm convinced it's a bear market. I have become a bitcoin maximalist :banghead:
     
    #151     Mar 10, 2021
    .sigma and They like this.
  2. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Allow me to say one thing.
    I read this thread.
    You're off the charts dude.
    You reiterate the fact of just how stupid I am.
    Folks that say ET has lost all its brain-posters..... NOT.

    Just thought I'd throw that in.
    For real.
    You and SLE should play chess.
    The two smartest guys in the house.
     
    #152     Mar 10, 2021
    .sigma, Daal and johnarb like this.
  3. johnarb

    johnarb

    [btw, i tried to stop myself from replying, didn't want to pollute your thread, but i failed]

    I lol'ed when I saw this. You clearly don't understand Celsius Network, and most importantly, you do not understand Alex Mashinsky, the billionaire founder

    Alex has 100 Million Celsius tokens worth ~$550M, verifiable on the blockchain

    VC's and Hedge Funds are literally begging to invest in Celsius Network, but instead, as you said, Celsius only accepted investors of the likes of Tethers and, actually the worldwide community of Celsius investors

    Celsius Network has been in hyper growth for a long time, when I invested in CEL the price of each CEL token was 20 cents, now it's ~$5.50, the AUM was less than $2B, AUM has just broken $10B a few days ago. As I said, Celsius Network is the 2nd biggest custodial holder of btc's, with GBTC being #1

    And you think no VC's or Hedge Funds want to invest in them?

    Money is not always the end goal

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/alejan...-of-the-most-feared-by-banks/?sh=20b1520e595b



    https://app.bnktothefuture.com/pitches/celsius-network
     
    #153     Mar 11, 2021
  4. Daal

    Daal

     
    #154     Mar 11, 2021
  5. It was just on the news in the UK BBC about Forex Scams. I would hazard a guess that the Bitcoin run has cause lots of people to have fomo and jump in without accounting for the risks...
     
    #155     Mar 11, 2021
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    Celsius pays out 80% of profits back to depositors and keeps 20%. How do they do that? See below (Lots of questions for Pomp on the thread, hope he replies, he's got financial interests in BlockFi)

     
    #156     Mar 12, 2021
  7. Daal

    Daal

    https://www.coindesk.com/billionaire-investor-howard-marks-warming-to-bitcoin

    Hats off to Howard Marks, not only he changed his mind, more importantly, he admitted to being a bad guru
    'the investor, who is worth $2.1 billion according to Forbes, previously said in a 2017 memo that cryptocurrency was “an unfounded fad.” The comment was “a knee-jerk reaction without information,” Marks conceded in a video interview with the Korea Economic Daily on Monday.'

    All the bearish gurus made quick assements without knowning jack shit, but only a few are humble and are aware enough about their flaws to admit it. To me, that's the key to a great investor. The proud gurus that are still in denial or that dont admit that their mental process was wrong, are shitty investors that are probably famous for reasons unrelated to skill (charisma, luck, etc). A great investor would be curious about a mistake like missing BTC and would try to fix it for the next time. That's what Marks is doing, my respect for him just want up a lot. Meanwhile I never read anything like that coming from the Shark Tank folks
     
    #157     Mar 16, 2021
    johnarb likes this.
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Hedge FUD manager: Ray Dalio says ‘good probability’ of a US Bitcoin ban
    https://cointelegraph.com/news/hedge-fud-manager-ray-dalio-says-good-probability-of-a-us-bitcoin-ban

    First, the headline is absolutely hilarious. Second, I have been reading a good book about the great depression by Scott Sumner called The Midas Paradox. It argues that a lot of the aggregate demand problem in the great depression happened because of the gold standard. There was widespread gold hoarding by governments (mostly France and the US), by private individuals (especially after some countries started to leave the gold standard and citizens of other nations started to worry they were next in the devaluatin chop block) and also cash hoarding. So you had this deflationary trap and having gold around helped to enable that to happen, so the US government wanted to get rid of that hoarding and get people to spend their cash (which was in the process of being devalued). So the gold ban helped to enable velocity of money

    Right now, the situation is completely different. We are talking about the beginning of an inflationary cycle where assets in limited supply (real estate, art, whiskey, bitcoin, etc) can be used as a hedge against that. We are talking about a situation where inflation is already at target and will likely soon be above it. Where fiscal stimulus will be done in a large way soon, where money velocity will increase as people get vaccinated. To stop the flow of funds from cash into crypto, would just lead that same cash to something else, whether it be gold, commodity futures contracts, wine storage facilities, prime real estate, etc. In fact, bitcoin price inflation means less commodity inflation, real estate inflation, etc. Things that matter a lot more to people and that have components inside the CPI. So I dont see how there will be this massive pressure to ban bitcoin
     
    #158     Mar 25, 2021
  9. Daal

    Daal

    I suppose the biggest proof of this was that the US did not ban inflation hedges in the 1970's, in fact they debanned gold in 1974. They did tried temporarly to cap the price of certain commodity futures but that didnt work and it didnt last very long. If the inflation situtation were to get horrendous (Argentina style) then the story could be different but at that point Bitcoin will be over at some huge price anyway, it would have meant that owning bitcoin was a good idea. And anyone with a sensible risk management plan, will be taking some profits on the way up, so they will be fine. Not to mention all the ways to get around the ban (such as owning bitcoin through non-US corporations)

    I have a feeling that the Dalio FUD is more related to the fact that he is opening his own bitcoin fund and wants to talk the price down. The last thing he wants is this thing touching $100K before he is done buying, so he talks nonsense to try to bring it down
     
    #159     Mar 25, 2021
    johnarb and They like this.
  10. Daal

    Daal

    #160     Mar 26, 2021