The Crisis Is Building Based On U.S., Not Asian, Structural Weakness - Great Analysis

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ByLoSellHi, Mar 1, 2007.

  1. I noticed that as well f9, I think that the unraveling of the yen carry might be the driver.
    I do believe the problem has it's roots in the US, not growing pains in asia as is widely touted.

    My guess is lower interest rates and a slipping dollar. However I do not think that lower interest rates will save the RE market nor do I think it will fuel more takeovers and corporate expansion.

    All in all I am not holding my breath for a white knight on this occasion.
     
    #11     Mar 3, 2007
  2. Short term interest rates stay more stable than any of us would care them to be for longer unless there is a massive equity selloff requiring a 50 bp drop to infuse liquidity to keep the system from imploding. Rates can only fall once people are gun-shy for borrowing for stupid reasons. A bit of darwinnowing by our Fed, if you ask me.

    No chance of rate hike, though. That WILL implode the equity market.

    Have been trying to play that long end of the curve unsuccessfully for a while - it should have hit a 5.5 yield on the 30 last year. On the sidelines for now until things shake out as that area is just too dangerous. With cash rates where they are, that's satsifactory too.
     
    #12     Mar 3, 2007
  3. Sooner or later the Fed will have to let the system fix itself. They can't keep going around creating bubbles. There is too much liquidity out there. Fed needs to raise rates or at least hold them steady and just let the chips fall where they may.

    John
     
    #13     Mar 3, 2007