Stocks fell 50%, houses fell 20%, commodities crashed 70%, wages are down, unemployment is up. Forget the long-run, deflation is already here.
Dude I'm not interested on your opinion, stop stalking me every thread and leave me the fuck alone. Thank you
Sorry, I assumed you welcomed discussion - you're replied to me plenty of times in the past with no sign this was unwelcome - and I had no idea my posts were irritating you. I've replied to your threads because I enjoyed discussing the topics you were covering, and thought you were an interesting poster here, not to "stalk" you. A polite PM would have been sufficient to make your point, but in any case, I'll stop replying to you as requested.
The goldman program conspiracies continue. One can just pull up a chart of the swiss franc and see what the SNB manipulation has resulted in. The franc is still up significantly, there is little doubt that the SNB could peg the franc at weaker levels if they wanted to, but that would require a commitment to keep running the printing press no matter what(effectively switch to fixed currency and risk inflation) with their current approach as soon as they stop, market forces will do whatever they want to do, they price in the large manipulator and then fluctuate at their will. I dont believe goldman has the buying power to peg NYSE NASDAQ stock prices
WSJ with some investment ideas by Soros and Paulson the first link at http://www.google.com.br/search?hl=...s+From+Market+Pros&btnG=Pesquisa+Google&meta= I sort of agree with Soros BIC focus, once it looks like the S&P is undervalued and ready to rise sustainably they will be probably a better buy I dont know what Paulson is smoking with his COF buy, maybe its just a short-term trade. I'm not sure about JPM either, yes is a good bank but is very overvalued in a PE basis, plus their derivative book might blow up, you just never know, which is a reason why the stock doesnt deserve a big multiple
One more thing dropping in this US shoestore, Jumbo Prime mortgages http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1175198265&play=1 I actually want to correct one thing I posted in the forum, as this high end real estate forecloses this will put a downward pressure in the Case Shiller but a upward pressure in the median home prices that get reported every now and then. I thought it was going to be the opposite for the Case Shiller. The effect on Case Shiller could be dramatic as they weight high end real estate more than the lower end
Heres some more info on why I believe the BOJ is run by incompetents. Central banks balance sheets Even the ECB is being expansive even though they complain about it, meanwhile the Japanese are not turning on the print presses by enough. It just seems highly unlikely US CPI will be flatish 10 years from now
Meanwhile japan has been one of the hardest hit in the crisis One could say they suffer a cultural problem of not wanting to lose face and trying grand plans that might fail. That is true, however I'm of that opinion that its the responsability of the central bank to fade society and do the right thing even if that risks having the central bank being shutdown. That was what Volcker did(He even was mailed car keys from auto sellers that couldn't sell units) and what Bernanke is doing right now
It seems we are seeing people without the forecasting courage to say unemployment ie headed to 11%, its like everybody is hiding behind 'it will go above 10%', thats not much of a forecast with the rate at 9.5%. The exceptions are rosenberg, roubini and rogoff. Rosenberg is saying it will easly break 10.8%, that looks about right given what happened after 90-91(last credit crunch), once the stress tests are shown to be a coverup(with high end real estate crashing Case Shiller, perhaps by more than the stress tests) we might very well see a return of the liquidity crisis(some bank runs), that would be possible because the government might run out of TARP funds. It seems hard to envision this scenario now, but only because the stock market is up a lot which tends to blind people to these type of bearish views but they seem quite possible