The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. Well, if you're long ZQ Dec 11, I'd say you have a inkling of where USD is headed.
     
    #3001     Jan 17, 2011
  2. Daal

    Daal

    Wikileaks will get the bank data of the tax evaders, its funny, if they publish it that they will help the very goverments they claim to be criminals and that are trying to kill them
     
    #3002     Jan 17, 2011
  3. Daal

    Daal

    "The debt crisis that began in Greece now threatens Portugal and Spain. EU governments aim to find a solution by March, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Jan. 13. Purchases of outstanding Greek debt, lower interest rates on rescue loans, aid for Portugal and guarantees against excessive debt are all being considered, four people with direct knowledge of the talks told Bloomberg News last week.

    Interest Rates

    “A discussion has opened on the cost of borrowing which is very important for us, meaning lower interest rates,” he said.

    Papaconstantinou said only he and Papandreou were authorized to talk about the country’s debt. The government yesterday denied being in talks to restructure its debt with private creditors after two government ministers spoke out in favor of the option.
    "

    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_wEQDviw3Sg

    If this really happens then it seems that the EU will be headed to the path of fiscal transfers at least for now. That is a 'solution' that I haven't seem much people giving too much attention to but the greek crisis could end tomorrow if they make a large enough of a transfer
     
    #3003     Jan 20, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

  5. Daal

    Daal

    Meredith Whitney took a lot of heat for her muni call but I don't believe the call is that crazy
    http://www.businessinsider.com/vall...to-stick-it-to-its-unsecured-creditors-2011-1

    Valejo will pay out 5-20 cents on the dollar to creditors. Her math was criticized but I believe people misunderstood her. She said 50-100 defaults or more totaling hundreds of billions of defaults. The muni market is a $3T market, put a large default rate there and the hundreds of billions can happen. I dont know if she is right(probably not as pimco has vast more expertise there and disagree with her) but I do know that she is more likely to be correct than her critics think
     
    #3005     Jan 21, 2011
  6. Daal

    Daal

    I dont believe Pimco is having a large conflict of interest there, Bill Gross had no problem avoiding the structured fixed income products for years during the bubble because they just didnt understand them
     
    #3006     Jan 21, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Their disagreement seem to be on the issue on whether the municipalities will succeed in their fiscal efforts and whether they will get bailed out by the federal gov. I can't possibly see NYC muni bonds defaulting given that the city is larger than lots of countries, there might be a few more TBTF munis out there
     
    #3007     Jan 21, 2011
  8. Daal

    Daal

    This is a quite thought provoking post
    http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=8483

    Specially to the folks that are analyzing other housing markets in the world and making bets. NGDP and central bank policy might be one of the indicators they need to look at
     
    #3008     Jan 21, 2011
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Macroeconomic Advisers expect no dissents at the Fed meeting
     
    #3009     Jan 25, 2011
  10. Daal

    Daal

    #3010     Jan 26, 2011