The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I'm thinking of doing the same thing. Buying volatility on this dip, I explained a while back that this might be a recurring macro theme to trade, I believe high volatility is here to stay even though the market will calm down every once and a while due debt levels
     
    #2631     Sep 21, 2010
  2. Daal

    Daal

    #2632     Sep 22, 2010
  3. Daal

    Daal

  4. dtan1e

    dtan1e

    wonder if there is some uncle point to the fed's QE or is it QE till there's nothing left to milk
     
    #2634     Sep 22, 2010
  5. I don't understand why they didnt act on it sooner.

    A USD under pressure and possibly revisting it's all time lows seems hardly like the enviroment they would like to see given today's polarisation.
     
    #2635     Sep 22, 2010
  6. Daal

    Daal

    Inflation expectations
     
    #2636     Sep 22, 2010
  7. Low interest rates and a massive gubmint spending binge have failed. All that's left is currency devaluation.
     
    #2637     Sep 22, 2010
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Running some quick math on this articles numbers
    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqEbsj68x7P4&pos=1

    It appears that the banks drained $17b(foreclosures * median home price) in future M2 by foreclosure action in August. This would be about $200b annually, which is about -2.5% of M2, rough numbers that are probably not accurate due third party fees and things like that. But yes, future foreclosure action should be quite significant in terms of pressure on broad money growth
     
    #2638     Sep 22, 2010
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Some charts on BOJ, Fed and ECB
    http://pragcap.com/konichiwa

    I disagree with the article specially seeing the BOJ balance sheet after their bubble burst, those guys did nothing but cut rates for years. The Fed ballooned the balance sheet right away and is set to do that more.

    Chart 18 says the increase of money base did not increase broad money, according to my analysis this is incorrect , had the Fed not embarked on QE1 M2 would have collapsed by about 10% due delevering/foreclosures/weak credit growth
     
    #2639     Sep 23, 2010
  10. #2640     Sep 23, 2010