The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. I'd love to see Kyle Bass on w/Steve Liesman. I'm pretty sure "Fed/Treasury Stooge" Liesman would be reduced to a quivering ball of tears after having to go a couple of minutes w/Bass.

    Even better, let Bass do the next interview w/Geithner.
     
    #2521     Aug 17, 2010
  2. Cases in point - Western Europe vs USA, it seems pretty clear the last 20-30 years that the higher taxes in the EU have resulted in slower growth. And Singapore/Hong Kong vs USA/Japan/W Europe. With a flat tax in the mid-teens the Asian city states seem to have prospered more. Since there is so much government waste in places like USA and W Europe, it's hard to imagine one couldn't slash spending 10-20% without seeing any issues. You'd just be eliminating wealth-destroying, disincentivising pork.

    It will be interesting to see what happens with Eastern Europe and Russia in 10-20 years, which introduced flat taxes on exactly these arguments.

    Economic growth isn't everything, and Europeans like to point to the extra "security" you get from a welfare state. However, over the long-term, general wealth levels create more security than a welfare state does. A small government economy with a GDP per capita of 1 million dollars is better off for all strata of society then a cradle to grave welfare state with a GDP of $1k per capita.
     
    #2522     Aug 17, 2010
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Well, krugman agrees with my view that Koo is lost when it comes to monetary policy
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/notes-on-koo-wonkish/

    he talks a lot about the interest rate effects but to me that is only secondary the biggest influence comes from the fact that by boosting nominal incomes people will have an easier time servicing debt and delevering(decreasing the downward spiral of bankruptcies and collateral/asset liquidation)
     
    #2523     Aug 18, 2010
  4. Daal

    Daal

    Koo again
    http://www.economist.com/economics/...ibutions/fed_should_ask_fiscal_policy_support

    He claims "The only way to keep money supply from shrinking is for the public sector to borrow money. Indeed the US money supply grew after 1933, following the worst balance sheet recession in history, precisely because of government’s New Deal borrowings. Japan’s money supply never contracted after 1990 in spite of massive private sector deleveraging, also because of government borrowings."

    I'm not sure how he reached this conclusion. If the primary buyer of the gov bond are banks(using bank reserves), then yes this will increase the money supply(reserves will turn to M2 as the government distributes the cash through wages, transfer payments,etc)
    But no fiscal stimulus is necessary for this, banks can swap reserves to low risk assets at any time and they do on occasion

    If banks are not financing the deficit, I dont see how that increases the money supply, M2 will be borrowed from the private sector and turned over to it again, leaving that static. It will help with the delevering and possibly bringing the date that delevering ends(making private M2 creating possible again) forward but that doesnt seem to be the argument he is making
     
    #2524     Aug 18, 2010
  5. Daal

    Daal

  6. And you find that comforting?
     
    #2526     Aug 18, 2010
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Well, he is a Keynesian saying fiscal policy isnt the only game in town. That adds some credibility to his argument. Also he could have been a great economist if he didnt keep swinging between showing tons of rationality and intelligence with blindness and politically motivated excuse making
     
    #2527     Aug 18, 2010
  8. Daal

    Daal

    #2528     Aug 18, 2010
  9. Daal

    Daal

  10. Daal

    Daal