The household data shows that the labor force declined by -181K and the number of employed declined by -159K(the unemployed declined by -24, net -135K), the employment to population ratio(Bernanke main measure to withhold rate hikes during the 2003-2004 cycle when he was a fomc voter) also worsened by 0.1% And of course the two year is on the way to the moon
Ses adj employment to population ratio hit a low on Dec 2009 at 58.2%, how much is it right now?58.4% Labor slack is almost at the cycle low, there has been virtually no recovery there. Unless one looks at people giving up on working as a good thing
$ getting pummeled against pretty much every currency on the planet. Complete opposite of the past couple of years where the $ would get stronger as equities declined. This is definitely a break in the correlations that everyone has gotten used to.
Hatzius might join the double dip parade soon http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-revises-us-gdp-forecast-for-2010-downward-2010-8
Hatzius predicts Fed to announce they will reinvest MBS proceeds http://www.zerohedge.com/article/go...se-unemployment-outlook-sees-imminent-qe-lite Soon I bet he will say the Fed wont raise in 2012, its a little early to go there(they ZQ contracts dont even exist for H2 that year) but its a possible trade down the line
What makes it even more interesting is that gold/EUR has gone from over 1,000 EUR to 900-ish EUR as the $DXY has declined.
If you're european or living in europe there are (gold)stocks down 20% to 40%. Add to that the currency appreciation of the Euro VS the USD and it makes for quite the loss or opportunity, depending on how you were positioned previous to the drop that is.
Faber's macro view: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LDVHVwGO-U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3FvCvjZLd8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIeJml4RD2I&translated=1
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/09/309731/chorus-of-qe-calls-is-deafening/ "The risk of a double-dip recession is material, but ultimately the more likely outcome is that we will manage to avoid it." - Jan Hatzius
Turns out that the event of Lehman BK leading to the Reserve Primary fund breaking the buck and somehow almost collapsing the world(at least according to Soros) was going to happen anyway regardless of Lehman failing or not http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703428604575419812292841830.html Maybe the bk made things worse due a bigger decline in GDP and more credit losses for them but someone would have been the first to break the buck anyway