Up 7% again today. I guess the saying about buying the bigest losers who everyone thinks are worthless can pay off at times indeed. Only trouble is getting yourself around to think differently which isnt always easy to do obviously because if it were everyone would do it.
Nah, they've just introduced the system of graduated haircuts that they've been talking about. So, for example, ABS haircuts are now 16%. I don't really see it as such a big deal.
Barton Biggs is an ardent follower of the quote he invented 'when the market fluctuates I change my mind, what do you do sir?'
"Manufacturing expanded in most regions. However, half of themâNew York, Cleveland, Kansas City, Chicago, Atlanta and Richmondâreported that activity had "slowed" or "leveled off." Steel production declined in both Chicago and Cleveland." Here comes the manufacturing recession
From Beige Book "Banking and Finance Reports on banking conditions were largely mixed across the Districts. Banking activity in Richmond and loan demand in Kansas City increased modestly. Overall loan demand was reported as soft or weak in Cleveland, Atlanta, and Dallas, while total outstanding loan volume decreased in recent months in St. Louis but was steady in Philadelphia and San Francisco. Demand for commercial loans was flat to increasing in the Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts; in contrast, St. Louis reported a decrease in commercial loans outstanding, while New York, Atlanta, and San Francisco reported restrained or decreasing demand in this lending category. Demand for consumer loans was weak in Cleveland and eased in Philadelphia; Atlanta and St. Louis indicated a decline in consumer lending; but demand for consumer loans increased in New York and Kansas City. Demand for residential mortgage loans eased in the Philadelphia District but increased in the New York District; Cleveland reported residential mortgage activity below expectations at given rates; and real estate lending decreased in St. Louis. Credit was limited for commercial real estate loans in Chicago, and demand fell for these loans in New York and Kansas City. Most Districts reporting on credit standards continued to note that lending standards remain restrictive. New York reported tighter credit standards for all categories except consumer loans, while Kansas City reported tighter commercial lending standards. Reports on credit quality were mixed in Cleveland and Kansas City, while quality was stable in San Francisco. Credit quality improved slightly in Philadelphia, Richmond, and Chicago. In the Dallas District, nonperforming loans have stabilized and are not expected to worsen. Meanwhile, Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Richmond continued to report delinquencies above historic norms. Delinquency rates in the New York District decreased for consumer loans but experienced little or no change in other categories." Apparently bank lending wont bail the Fed out, it looks like they are going to have to come back to the market or they will repeat the 1930's money supply collapse
Yeah, but FedEx says the upcoming quarters look strong to them. Never mind how a mail delivery company has any fucking idea how many packages they will be delivering in a week's tiime, let alone several month's time. Its green shoots. Next stop, Dow 11K.
Consensus range for tomorrow GDP report is '1.0 % to 3.4 %' Quite wide. I'm looking for to see "real final sales + the price index"(nominal gdp ex-inventory changes), thats what will really drive earnings going forward, not the productivity boom and corporate fat cutting that is completely unsustainable
Trimmed down PPD and XHB shorts(although XHB is still mostly on). At this point I have some smallish stock plays, SPY puts but currently the only real bet is on Dec 2011 Fed Futures. Moodys news that some large US banks will be downgraded is helpful to that bet, a possible way I could be wrong would be if the banks started to lend, getting the money supply to expand. The downgrades combined with declining home prices(although it appears that the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit propped them up for a while) should provide incentives for them to keep standards tight. If prices do fall significantly they will look pretty bad to investors given that they took money out of loss reserves just so they could beat earnings estimates in this quarter