I'm amazed by how quickly market sentiment turns. In an instant, we've gone from a nice bear move and lots of fear back to that Feb-Mar vibe where its hard to imagine news so dire that it would drive stocks down significantly.
Chanos Shorts Oil Majors, Ford, Hasnât âPlayedâ BP http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.ht...//media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vTQjgtn5frZs.asf
Simmons is short BP and talking his book http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ees-bankruptcy-massive-hole-at-the-well-bore/ Big deal, Barrons has people EVERY WEEK talking their book. Gabelli and others typically will list 4-5 reasons why the stock is great. And thats the only difference, when its in the long side, nobody cares, but when its a short, all the sudden its a 'scandal' that someone is talking their book
Gross is buying BP bonds. This might be a better play, due the political pressure to not allow BP to get rid of liabilities through BK and the company is worth quite a bit alive and probably can pay everyone if they money will come out of cashflows. So one could say Obama is siding with the debt holders at the expense of the shareholders. Since he is trying to run the place, I'm considering picking up some bonds. They are yielding 6-7% right now, rallied after yesterday. I'm hoping they go down some more
BP not just cut the dividend and bended over to the WH accepting the fund, now they will raise $10b in debt(at quite high interest rates). I wouldn't be surprised if Whitney Tilson has unloaded or at least trimmed his position there
Several times from mid-2009 till the end of the year, I came here and posted my anecdotal thoughts that the economy seemed to be humming along. I own several apartment buildings and always have at least one major rehab project going on - I deal w/lots of contractors, realtors, and building supply houses. I am in a Home Depot or Lowes at least twice a week. My thoughts over the past few weeks are that things have really slowed down. Realtors are not moving nearly as much product (result of the end of the tax credit no doubt). Contractors seem to be far more available than a few months ago, and business at my favorite Home Depot appears very sluggish at a time of the year when they should be rockin and rollin. Just my thoughts. Stocks, of course, are back in early 2010 mode. All dips will be bought. Expect the S&P to rise 1% in the last hour of trading each day.
The hussman 4 step recession model says the economy is almost there in terms of historical 100% recession prediction. Now lets say that the model has been running hot and its probabilities of being right arent 100%, say its 75%, that would be the chance of a double dip, yet the model is not there so that needs to be discounted, lets say it will go to there 50% of the time(thats probably too low given that is so close but lets be conservative). So as currently stands that econometric model is predicting something like a 37% of a double dip. This is way more than almost any pundit is predicting, including the bears. But I cant see how thats not correct With the economy double dipping, ES goes back to 8xx and the Fed embarks on QE2, a new fiscal stimulus is also a possibility(along with a US sovereign debt crisis a few years down the road as the congress fails to execute a fiscal exit strategy on time)
Interesting piece by Greenspan http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704198004575310962247772540.html "In the past decade the U.S. has been unable to cut any federal spending programs of significance." Which is why a new fiscal stimulus is dangerous(unless its all temporary tax cuts). 'there is nothing as permanent as a temporary government program' I fail to see how the Congress or the WH will act before a crisis(as he says, no one will touch entitlements or the retirement age), which is why I see a US debt crisis as inevitable at some point, with US Treasuries yielding much greater yields than currently as investors demand higher inflation premiums
Looks like IB is offering US muni bonds http://www.interactivebrokers.com/e...d/trade_corporate_treasury_and_muni_bonds.htm
Not sure why you give so much respect to this old fucker. He's been wrong about most things for his whole career and this pablum is no different. What a despicable old prick. http://pragcap.com/alan-greenspan-sounds-the-bond-vigilante-siren-call