ha ha funny, he's a smart guy indeed ..he's happily married with a smart new wife and now with 2 very cute loverly daughters and a big fat bank a/c in spore.
Amazing presentation about the for-profit education industry from Steve Eisman at the Ira Sohn conference. Yet another government-enabled Ponzi scheme that has left and will continue to leave millions saddled with debts they can never pay, while the politically connected execs of these schools get hedge fund rich. The first 40 or so slides are the visuals to the presentation. His actual speech is on the last 4 or 5 pages, and I highly recommend it. http://www.slideshare.net/pkedrosky/eisman-ira-sohn-conference-slides-and-speech52610
With regards the BP trade, there might be a slam dunk there. BP RIG HAL APC all fell by a similar amount, there is just no way the liabilities will be distributed evenly. Its just a matter of figuring out who will get the least(maybe $0), in terms of costs and subtract the loss of that well to the company
CREA says Canadian housing is not a bubble http://www.crea.ca/public/news_stats/pdfs/housing_report_2010.pdf Of course they have a vested interest in saying things are ok, but they do make some points that need to be debunked for any housing bear before proceeding
This analyst is an oil expert whom I respect http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/2010/Jun/2010_Jun_02.asp?printdoc=print Says he is not buying the 4 horseman of the spill yet but likes the sector
Would you go anywhere near the BPs and RIGs of the world, given what is going on in the Gulf of Mexico? We've done a ton of research into it. Who is at fault? We have no idea. But we do know how this plays out in the standard sense of legal ramifications, and this is all on BP. Unless you have someone caught on videotape with a blowtorch saying, "We're going to take this baby down!," it's pretty much all on BP. That's just industry norm. Also, what you're hearing trickle out is that BP may have made some bad decisions. I think you'll find it hard perhaps to say they were grossly negligent, but they may have made some bad decisions. Where do you start looking for opportunities? Well, Anadarko (NYSE: APC) holds a 25 percent interest in the well, and generally would be responsible for 25 percent of the liability. But unlike the oil services guys, Anadarko has nothing to lose on the business front, and they will come after BP hard legally. When you look at what's come out of Anadarko on a market-cap basis, given how we see the liability here, it looks ridiculous. I think with Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), while you could maybe prove that the trouble with the well was their fault, there's zero legal challenge back to them. For everything they do, they have a checkoff from BP. Unless they didn't tell the whole truth in their congressional hearing, everything was checked off. Transocean (NYSE: RIG) is similar to Halliburton, where every single thing is ticked off. This might impact Transocean down the line in terms of the business they have with BP, so that could weigh on things for a year or two, but they are still one of the best in the business and they will be fine. We won't touch BP, but with some of the other guys, I think you'll look back a couple of years from now and say, man, this was a great buying opportunity. http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/f...g-opportunity-in-anadarko-others.html?start=1
Another strategy to profit from the commodity boom that I forgot to mention are junk bonds issue companies with commodity exposure. IB only has US corporate bonds but I bet the canandian and australian market have a ton of companies issuing debt there, the good thing about it is that in the case of bankruptcy you might endup owning the equity in the new company, although I'm not sure if Chap11 exits in those countries and how it works In any event, it looks I'm going to need another broker that is as global as IB but has low commissions as well
Your post pre-supposes a commodity boom. Is that a given? Having just read drobny's book and seeing that every other word out of the commodity guys' mouths was China, the better value might be in playing for a commodity bust.
A chinese recession would be like the 74 US recession, CRB would correct. At some point it would end, global GDP would resume its trend and the boom would continue