The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. Daal

    Daal

  2. Daal

    Daal

    '1336 GMT [Dow Jones] Overall, the Bank of Canada's policy statement was unambiguously on the dovish side of expectations, with the bank almost bending over backward to indicate that this is not necessarily the start of a relentless campaign to crank rates higher, says Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. "The Bank has left its options wide open even on the July rate decision; while we still expect a follow-up rate hike at that time, we continue to believe that the Bank will take a pause at some point this year, particularly with the Fed likely on hold until 2011." (don.curren@dowjones.com)'

    That seems a silly thing to do. Apparently just wanted to take off the 'emergency levels' and dont have much conviction in what they are doing
     
    #2042     Jun 1, 2010
  3. This is what I was worried the Fed would do. Pretty sure its off the table for now.:)
     
    #2043     Jun 1, 2010
  4. Daal

    Daal

    I was incorrect with regards the BoC but partially, they did act like chickens, just a hawkish version of them
    'Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook, any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.'

    And its funny that they talked about the 'robust' Q1 GDP report, its mostly housing investment, this is going to take down their housing market at some point
     
    #2044     Jun 1, 2010
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I got to say, its getting really tempting to buy BP
    its trading at 6x trailling earnings(5 forward). 7.8% forward div yield(8.7% current)
    The total drop of the market cap from the point of the spill is about $70B, this seems to be more than enough to pay all the litigation/fines, compensate for the oil drop and stock market decline.
    There could be a loss of credibility and possible future business, but that didnt happen with Exxon in 89
     
    #2045     Jun 1, 2010
  6. #2046     Jun 1, 2010
  7. Daal

    Daal

    #2047     Jun 1, 2010
  8. Daal

    Daal

    He was correct and I wish I had the coins he bought, problem is he is not profiting from it. Still long EURs thinking its going to rebound. I guess he doenst seem disintegration anytime soon
     
    #2048     Jun 1, 2010
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Its interesting that the 'blame the EUR' has not arrived yet. In fact the union is still quite strong given all the money moving around. I suspect a default could involve that kind of blame game, if Greece leaves, they wont blame the reform, the might just blame the currency
     
    #2049     Jun 1, 2010
  10. Daal

    Daal

    Here's an article about possible gold peak levels
    http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

    It all seem interesting but I'm afraid this analysis is irrelevant, what determines the gold price is investor psychology, not rational thinking about economic indicators. The peak will be an arbitrary number in the that day greater fools stop coming
     
    #2050     Jun 2, 2010