This could be used as a rough guide on when start to cut back bearish bets and start going long some select risk assets http://www.businessinsider.com/henr...ar-a-buying-opportunity-says-rosenberg-2010-5
http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-heres-three-signs-that-weve-hit-the-market-bottom-2010-5 this could be used as a reason to short all rallies
RBA pulls out the 'lets wait and see card' http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a_Q_tp.iKXLA I will be surprised if the BoC hikes today, I expect them to stand pat even though consensus is for a hike, you can usually count on central bankers being chickens in times of uncertainty, so I dont understand what the consensus is thinking. I plan to get more familiar with their BAX futures so I can take advantage of views like these in the future
I'm planning to do some shorting of ITB today, homebuilders ETF http://www.businessinsider.com/t2-p...ing-see-the-horrors-of-nashvilles-flooding-01 I figure even if that analysis is wrong, the hussman study acts as a backup and perhaps all stocks go down from here. If that is wrong also, maybe the EU crisis can bailout the shorts It looks like the US banks are holding off a ton of supply from the market, at this stage either the banks take losses by forcing everyone into foreclosure(killing housing and the builders) or they do modifications that work. In any event that shadow supply of housing is out there and the homebuilders are not likely to do well for a long-time as there is little or no need for them
The banks are simply kicking the can down the road, keeping the supply from collapsing the market "The average borrower in foreclosure has been delinquent for 438 days before actually being evicted, up from 251 days in January 2008, according to LPS Applied Analytics." http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/01/business/01nopay.html?ref=business
Being long 90 day bill futures one year out, I would have preferred that the RBA hike today as it would have served to push the Oz economy even further off the cliff, and it would have provided an excellent opportunity to buy more. I am feeling frisky and just purchased some Mar2011 BAX futures. If the BAC doesn't hike, they will pop. If the BAC does hike I should get a nice opportunity to buy a few more at a cheaper price. I've been banking a lot of coin lately and feeling confident - sometimes it leads to even more coin, other times to getting taught an expensive lesson. We'll see.
Here are the valuations: 'Average Price/Earnings 25.87' http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=ITB+Holdings A speculative boom that the will do well next year, with so much shadow supply(that should come on market every time that conditions 'improve') I dont believe there will be much of a earnings recovery there, and the fools buying at 25 earnings wont be generous forever
I was wrong on the BoC, I dont follow their speeches and indicators, so maybe I need to do a lot of more of homework to understand what are they thinking
Mar2011 BAX contract popped on the news anyway. Just covered for a nice 13 point profit. Paid for a few weeks of our shore house this summer.