The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Jim Rogers is known for saying 'No currency union has ever survived', that is an interesting fact, however its almost useless for trading purposes. Those unions can take a LONG time to break up

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_union
     
    #1891     May 13, 2010
  2. Yeah, I'm not sure that anything Krugman says is worthy of this thread. Nobel Prize or not, the man is the worst kind of ideologue - anybody or any idea with a D after his name equals good, anything or anybody with an R after his name equals bad. We're seeking the truth here, and Krugman's horribly biased ramblings don't help a lot.
     
    #1892     May 13, 2010
  3. Daal

    Daal

    You are going to love this then
    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/05/galbraith_the_danger_posed_by.html
    "Galbraith: The danger posed by the deficit ‘is zero’"

    "JG: What is the nature of the danger? The only possible answer is that this larger deficit would cause a rise in the interest rate. Well, if the markets thought that was a serious risk, the rate on 20-year treasury bonds wouldn't be 4 percent and change now. If the markets thought that the interest rate would be forced up by funding difficulties 10 year from now, it would show up in the 20-year rate. That rate has actually been coming down in the wake of the European crisis.

    So there are two possibilities here. One is the theory is wrong. The other is that the market isn't rational. And if the market isn't rational, there's no point in designing policy to accommodate the markets because you can't accommodate an irrational entity."

    Apparently that logic doenst apply to his support of regulation where he is quite willing to design policy to prevent irrational markets from creating bad outcomes
     
    #1893     May 13, 2010
  4. Took me a while to check...

    There was never any new fund. It's always been SemperMacro and its AUM has gone down from arnd $2bn to something utterly piddly and insignificant now. S-J is not on BBG any more and nobody in the mkt seems to know of the fund. My understanding is that his woes started in 2006 and continued through 2007 and mostly had to do with Eurodollars (outright positions and then options). Obviously, I could be wrong and I don't want to be badmouthing him and the fund, but that is my understanding of the situation.
     
    #1894     May 13, 2010
  5. Well, I posted this link and story. Are you saying this is a lie? Where is your link?

    http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/19-01-2009/sempermacro-posts-return-of

    Hedge Funds
    SemperMacro posts return of 50%

    Mark Cobley
    19 Jan 2009

    SemperMacro, a hedge fund spun out of Fulcrum, the boutique of former BBC chairman Gavyn Davies in 2007, posted gains of more than 50% last year as global macro proved one of the few strategies to weather the downturn.

    SemperMacro Capital, which is run by the former Goldman Sachs trader Christian Siva-Jothy, went through a bad patch in 2006 when investors pulled money following investment losses of 15.7%. The following year, Siva-Jothy and three colleagues – all former Goldman traders – spun it off as an independent venture and since then the fund has redeemed itself.
     
    #1895     May 13, 2010
  6. I have no link. I have spoken to people whose people know people, if you see what I'm sayin'. At any rate, you don't have to believe me.

    Out of curiosity, does the article you have posted say anything about the fund's AUM?
     
    #1896     May 13, 2010
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Yeah, the guy could be trading mostly his own money these days
     
    #1897     May 13, 2010
  8. Nice links. It's a shame there's no value investing forum on this board.
     
    #1898     May 13, 2010
  9. I don't disagree with your trade, but I have a question - what exactly is "building a position" and what is the purpose of it? If today's price is a great opportunity, why avoid having a full position?
     
    #1899     May 13, 2010
  10. I just read that and JG is clearly trying to earn his junior krugman badge. In a sense, he is correct - deficits don't matter ... until one day, they do. Its like the mortgage mess - income, credit, the size of the mortgage ... none of it mattered. Then one day, it did matter and 10 years of growth was wiped out in a few months.
     
    #1900     May 13, 2010