The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Aug 14, 2008.

  1. Central banks save the world once again.

    Give those heroes a statue please.
     
    #1861     May 10, 2010
  2. Daal

    Daal

    Bailout list

    * Outright bond purchases from the ECB, to be sterilized
    Very surprising move, which goes to show that the ECB is COMPLETLY unreliable on their public statements regarding their likely actions(Webber said this was 'too much' and the Council didnt even discuss this, I find that hard to believe, was Trichet lying?). If things dont improve they are going to cut rates down to 0.5% or 0.25%, it doesnt matter what they are saying
    * 3m and 6m full-allotment LTROs
    This was expected
    * Reactivation of FX swap lines
    This was expected
    * €60 billion in cash from the European Commission, funded by bond sales
    * €440 billion in loan guarantees, via pooled support of member governments
    * Up to €220 billion from the IMF
    This is sorta surprising, although they already made clear they are going to bail everyone out
     
    #1862     May 10, 2010
  3. Daal, if I may ask you:

    Has this development changed your risk/award assessment towards risk assets the coming months and years in any way?

    Cheers.
     
    #1863     May 10, 2010
  4. One thing I can't understand ... if all it takes to create a bull market is printing money, why are there ever bear markets?
     
    #1864     May 10, 2010
  5. Daal

    Daal

    Not much, the losses will have to be taken, those moves are not addresing the structural issues. As I understand the bailouts are senior to existing debt. Although some of the ECB actions might suggest they are more willing to print more than the BOJ was(intervention is sterelized yet if deflation takes over they might very well balloon bank reserves even if Trichet swears under oath that 'I will not engage in QE to boost inflation measures' the day before). I dont want to be short risk for today and the coming days though
     
    #1865     May 10, 2010
  6. Daal

    Daal

    Trichet just said policy is 'appropriate' despite debt buying, which means they will be cutting rates soon...
     
    #1866     May 10, 2010
  7. Time to exit that TED spread play.
     
    #1867     May 10, 2010
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Any indication of how the next libor fixing will look like?
     
    #1868     May 10, 2010
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Its certainly possible that USTs and German Bund yields will collapse if a new round of risk aversion starts soon. However, the message has been clear, they will pay for the bill of the EU crisis. IMF should get more US funds soon(that they probably need). So I cant help to be skeptical of the long gov debt at the long end trade

    The spreads could blow out by the PIIGS bonds going down more than the bailout group bonds, or the bailout group could stay flat while the pigs fall. They could also rally but I find hard to be confident of a position there. I'm confident of the disinflation part of it but it remains to be seen how their bonds will do given that they saying they will pick up the check of the global sovereign debt crisis(Plus US states should start needing funds and bailouts soon)
     
    #1869     May 10, 2010
  10. The 3m depo out of tom was trading arnd 2bps lower...

    BTW, Macro Man is ceasing transmission! He be moving to Greenwich, CT. It's a (not Greek) tragedy!
     
    #1870     May 10, 2010