El-Erian on Greece http://www.cnbc.com/id/36992469 Expects few members to be out 1y from now. EUR to survive
I have a theory that a ton of the hawkishness from FOMC members was derived from the fact that the stock market was steadily going up for so long, it just kinda infected them. Now with this LEH meltdown 2.0 I believe it pretty much seals that deal there will be no rate hikes this year. A 4% collapse in US stock averages should get their attention and shut them up
This seems to be a joke, the brazilian central bank is buying dollars at auction, with the real down 4% on the day. They are going against their tendency of 'always do the opposite of what the market is doing', I guess they are trying to reinforce the trend towards a weak real to boost the chance of incumbent party for the presidential election this year
I have no way to prove this but to me, the reason the market got this bounce was because its only the start to the bear market so people still trust the 'fundamentals' that keep the rally going 'V shaped recovery, 0% rates, strong earnings', the panic set in but all the fools who still think the game will keep going stepped in and bought in masse
Looks like people will try to blame this semi crash in all kinds of things. Funny, there is always someone to blame, how come they dont blame on the fact that Europe is imploding, just look at libor, eurodollars, etc. Are the HFTs there too? We could be on the verge of a crash that would rival 2008, I simply cant see how the government cant contain the forces behind these structural problems, clearly it looks like bailouts wont work. So we might be into a new 'fear cycle' where people act shit scared for months, risk assets go down, then one day out of nowhere for silly reasons(like US banks saying 'things ain't so bad') an immaculate recovery starts and risk taking comes back(ala Mar 09) Looks like my XLF put buying from last year should have been made this year, I would have cleaned up, but this market might be forgiving and give bears another shot
A fat finger in a single Dow component can wipeout trillions in market cap of global stock averages?This can only happen because people are shit scared about anything, not because a mistake happened and the market is still healthy
Had to remind all of this classic exercise in knife-catching from March 12. I lost money every freaking day in this trade for 6 weeks and then made it al back and more in the space of a few trading sessions. A little black swan profit. Feels good.
You are not going to bailout of GE?Libor is blowing up huge, whether the media like it or not, EU is melting down