m22au, Summers said in an interview friday that part of the stock market disapointment had to do with too much optimism by financial stocks investors, Timothy G was also trash talking banks. So it seems they will be a little harsher on their terms
Daal, Thanks for bringing that interview to my attention. Although I believe that Obama / Timmy G and Summers will be less friendly to financial services companies than Bush / Paulson, I still think they will be generous, particularly when dealing with the bigger banks (C, BAC, WFC, USB, GS, MS, JPM). For example, suppose C and BAC fail the "stress test" that Timmy G has proposed. I find it hard to believe that (1) C and BAC would be 'allowed' to fail the stress test and (2) be shut down as a result of failing the stress test. For smaller banks, in particular RF, FITB, MI, HBAN, I think it is possible that these banks are shut down / nationalised, however I don't think this will happen to C and BAC.
wow, greenspan is backing bank nationalization, xlf might go to to a new 50% decline http://www.ft.com/home/us He is also saying more tarp money is needed and the senior debt of banks needs to be protected, he must be my portfolio manager as I'm long senior debt and short the stocks. Its interesting that he works for pimco who is heavly long preferred and with nationalization they get wiped out, I bet Gross is not too happy with this opinion Basically most economists and policymarkets not in government are calling for nationalization, should be a matter of time now
Nationalisation is increasingly likely for COF, AXP, DFS, HIG, LNC, MET, STi, FITB, RF, KEY, HBAN, MI, ZION, SNV and CMA ..... but I would be surprised if C and BAC were formally nationalised. Having said that, given the amount of preferred stock the government has pumped into those two companies, the stocks could gradually trade towards zero, in a similar vain to FRE and FNM.
makloda, looks like bank preferred stocks plunged after Alan Greenspan comments http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=pgf&sid=0&o_symb=pgf&freq=7&time=18 I think this is the first time the US tax code saved me money I think I will agree with the market here, bernanke said no nats because of a few bs reasons but I think they could quickly change their mind when the panic intensifies
Velocity of money is defined simply as the rate at which money changes hands. If velocity is high, money is changing hands quickly, and a relatively small money supply can fund a relatively large amount of purchases. On the other hand, if velocity is low, then money is changing hands slowly, and it takes a much larger money supply to fund the same number of purchases. As you might expect, the velocity of money is not constant. Instead, velocity changes as consumers' preferences change. It also changes as the value of money and the price level change. If the value of money is low, then the price level is high, and a larger number of bills must be used to fund purchases. Given a constant money supply, the velocity of money must increase to fund all of these purchases. Similarly, when the money supply shifts due to Fed policy, velocity can change. This change makes the value of money and the price level remain constant.
m22au, The reason that I think they will nationalize(specially the big banks) is because consensus is a very persuasive thing for most people. Alan Greenspan is a chicago school type economist, Bernanke is as well and probably agrees with with him 80%+ of the time, so if greenspan is saying that, bernake is in all likelyhood already there. Yesterday he gave BS reasons and mostly said the administration wants banks in private hands. Remember when fnm and fre had rumors of inadequate capital, bernanke and paulson denied and denied and sometime after they took them over, the consensus of people and the stock market was very strong for them to ignore. At this point all it takes if for the consensus to get to Obama as he seems to control Geithner a good deal, as opposed to Paulson who was running the show and Bush just accepted his decisions. More and more Obama will hear natz from everywhere, that should persuade him We as traders tend ignore consensus due our contrarian nature but I believe for most people it works Its hard to see an end to this uptrend on natz consensus and financial stocks massacre